New Album to go #1?

[FullonEdge]

Does anyone think its possible or even probable that the new cd can go to number one on the U.S. charts (I know it will in most other countries) or at this stage in their careers is that unreasonable?



Despite a lot of hype and a good first single, atyclb only reached #3.

But then again, this has been a longer wait and I can sense lots of hunger for this one!

 

[Popmartijn]

Who knows?
It all depends and it's all relative.

Yes, I know that is an answer which has almost no value, but it is the truth.

Whether or not the new album can go to #1 depends on the other albums that are being released around the same time. How much competition does U2 have with other debuts? How much competition does U2 have with other albums released just a few weeks prior?
And it's also all relative. As you correctly say, ATYCLB 'only' reached #3 (behind OutKast and Jay-Z IIRC). Still, it sold 428,000 copies that week (which is almost gold, considering that stands for 500,000 copies shipped). In comparison with another rock band, a few weeks (2?) before ATYCLB was released Radiohead sold around 180,000 copies of Kid A in their debut week. That album debuted at #1. So it is all relative. Sales of 180,000 copies can get you a #1 position while a few weeks later 430,000 isn't enough for even #2.
Keep also in mind that first week sales for ATYCLB were the highest U2 ever had. Although Pop debuted at #1, that record sold 349,000 copies in its first week. Since that one was one of the lighter-selling U2 records and U2 had a great comeback with ATYCLB (that also stayed on the chart for nearly 2 years), it could mean that U2's sales figures in the first week will be even higher than ATYCLB, as many of the fans who 'rediscovered' U2 will want to purchase it right away. Especially when they have a good first single this is very much possible. Of course, it's also possible that U2 slipped out of the minds of many people since it's 4 years ago since that record was released.

Who know?



Marty

 

[FullonEdge]

well, thank you for your assurance that its possible

 

[Popmartijn]

One must never lose hope.

 

[U2girl]

Depends. ATYCLB had the bad luck of having to compete with the very popular Yay Z and Outkast at the time - if they have another huge first single (a la BD) and no hot releases to compete with, it's possible IMO.
Then again, ATYCLB sold very good on the long run anyway.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

There is no way that it won't debut at number one this time around....everybody that purchased ATYCLB in the first week were mainly those that were sticking by the band after Pop.....now with ATYCLB having around two and a half million more buyers than the previous release, I would expect the new album to easily sell over 500,000 (700,000 if the first single is a big hit) in its first week and have no trouble topping the competition.

 

[anitram]

I still think they're releasing it the wrong week if they want it to go to #1. They should have put it out November 2nd where the biggest "competition" is a lameass Clay Aiken Christmas record or the 9th with his bosom buddy Ruben Studdard.

Now they're gonna get lost in the R&B/hip hop/rap slurry of records looming large the previous week.

 

[U2girl]

Depends. ATYCLB had the bad luck of having to compete with the very popular Yay Z and Outkast at the time - if they have another huge first single (a la BD) and no hot releases to compete with, it's possible IMO.
Then again, ATYCLB sold very good on the long run anyway.

And now they're competing with Eminem and Destiny's child, who are both releasing their albums a week before.

 

[Tomer]

would many people buy two very differnet kinds of music?

are they a thread for possible u2 buyers?

do we care if it reaches #1?

 

[FullonEdge2]

Hey Tomer! Long time, no see!

And yes, I care if it goes #1. It would be a remarkable achievement for a band that's 25 years old. It certainly wouldn't be the end of the world, but it would still be awesome!

 

[Tomer]

i dont like the charts at all
Fullon

 

[niallyb]

The Eminem CD comes out the either 1 or 2 weeks before hand. I think the release date is set for Nov 8th at the moment. Given that in the US Eminems first 3 weeks of sales of his last 2 CD's exceeded any single weeks of U2 CD sales it will be very tough for U2 to make it to #1.

Eminems first 2 weeks sales of both his last 2 CD's were

The Marshall Mathers LP - Week 1 approx 1.3 million
The Marshall Mathers LP - Week 2 approx 800K


The Eminem Show - week 1 approx 900K (the mroke the street date)
The Eminem Show - week 2 approx 900K

Im not sure of the exact numbers but in all cases it was WAAAY more than the 420K that ATYCLB managed (in itself a great total).

 

[Lo-Fi]

Might not make it in the US, but it will in other countries, I'm sure of that, and I'm sure they'll work their ass off to try and get it to No. 1 everywhere.

But overall, I ain't that fused about the chart position, as long as it's a good solid record that's all I care about.

 

[STING2]

Although it is rare, the band could hit #1 in January after all the Christmas releases have calmed down. Albums in January and February typically only need to sell 100,000 to 150,000 to hit #1 during that time period. If the new album has stronger and more consistent sales 10 weeks out, they could easily be at #1 in the USA at that time.

 

[Axver]

What baffles me is how Eminem could sell 900 albums a week, let alone 900,000 ...

 

[U2girl]

Nov 8, Shania Twain will release her Greatest hits album. More trouble...

 

[anitram]

Even worse, Snoop Dogg is now releasing the same day as U2.

Also releasing that day are Gwen Stefani, Jessica Simpson (Xmas album) and Fantasia (winner of American Idol 3).

 

[STING2]

I don't have Statistics off hand on how Snoops last album did its first week, but I don't think it will be a problem. The only one that is a problem is eminem as far as topping the US Album chart.

But, think about the potential of Vertigo as a single. It gets released to radio and Friday and if it were to do really well, better than BD, it could easily boost what would have been normal first weeks numbers for U2 in the USA to something much larger.

 

[anitram]

Yes, it will depend a lot on the single.

STING, how do you think Destiny's Child will do in their 2nd week?

 

[STING2]

Yes, it will depend a lot on the single.

STING, how do you think Destiny's Child will do in their 2nd week?

I don't see them moving much more than 200,000 copies in their second week, and probably much less.

Typically second weeks have sales of around 50% of the first week, so the only artist who could threaten U2 with their second weeks are artist that could sell close to a million copies in their first week and currently, Eminem is the only one on the release schedual that has a chance of doing that.

 

[Earnie Shavers]

I think it's funny that Universal are releasing Eminem, Destinys Child and U2 so closely together....

It will go #1 all around the world. In the Australian charts, whenever a new U2 album is released, a few of the older ones tend to sneak into the charts as well. You'll see the new album at #1 and you'll see Achtung down at 54 or something.

It will be tough in the US though. So much competition.

 

[STING2]

In Ireland right now, the Best of 1980-1990 and the Best of 1990-2000, are both in the top 50 of Ireland's album chart.

 

[Vox02]

Goals that HTDAAB can achieve in november '04:

-U2's fifth number one single in UK singles chart

-U2's ninth number one album in UK albums chart

Vox

 

[Popmartijn]

In the Netherlands, HTDAAB can (and probably will) become U2's ninth consecutive #1 album. No other artist has ever achieved that (nor eight consecutive #1 albums, except U2 of course ).

 

[Axver]

In the Netherlands, HTDAAB can (and probably will) become U2's ninth consecutive #1 album. No other artist has ever achieved that (nor eight consecutive #1 albums, except U2 of course ).

Marty, where do those nine begin? Are you counting WAIA and UABRS?

 

[Popmartijn]

Axver, it starts with The Joshua Tree (yes, that is nine albums ago! )

1. The Joshua Tree
2. Rattle And Hum
3. Achtung Baby
4. Zooropa
5. Pop
6. The Best Of 1980-1990
7. All That You Can't Leave Behind
8. The Best Of 1990-2000


9 (?). How To Dismantle An Atomic Bomb

 

[niallyb]

Doesnt Take Me to the Clouds Above count as a UK #1 for them? They have a credit on it and it will be listed on the Guinness book of hit singles. This means that they already have 5 UK #1s. Vertigo may well be their 6th


UK #1's

Desire
The Fly
Discotheque
Beautiful day
Take me to the clouds above

US #1s

With or Without you
I Still havent found what I'm looking for

 

[U2girl]

Kylie Minogue is releasing the next single to promote Greatest hits on 20+something November, and the album is out 2 weeks or so earlier.

 

[womanfish]

I think it is going to come down to singles and promotion with the battle between U2 and Eminem. I don't think that Eminem is quite as popluar as he was last time around. I think his debut will probably be around 750 to 800, 000. But this could change if his single completely bombs or completely explodes. A huge success for a rap single played all over both rap and top 40 stations would be enough to easily launch him over a million the first week. U2 on the other hand could have Vertigo become a huge hit on modern rock and rock radio, and probably get some decent play on Adult top 40 and some on top 40, which would give them a solid 450 to 500, 000 for their first week. If it bombs (which it doesn't look like it will do at this point) It could mean barely hitting 400, 000.

We also have to take into consideration that because we will be nearing Christmas that the second week sales of Eminem will drop less than if it were a non-holiday time. Sales remain strong and consistent throughout the lead up to Christmas. So his sales could possibly only drop 30 to 40 percent the second week as people hit the stores in bigger numbers.

All in all, my gut is telling me that U2 will be blocked from number 1, with Eminem opening at 800, 000, going down 40% the following week to 480,000, and U2 hitting number 2 with 440,000.

That's my best guess at the moment.

 

[STING2]

I think it is going to come down to singles and promotion with the battle between U2 and Eminem. I don't think that Eminem is quite as popluar as he was last time around. I think his debut will probably be around 750 to 800, 000. But this could change if his single completely bombs or completely explodes. A huge success for a rap single played all over both rap and top 40 stations would be enough to easily launch him over a million the first week. U2 on the other hand could have Vertigo become a huge hit on modern rock and rock radio, and probably get some decent play on Adult top 40 and some on top 40, which would give them a solid 450 to 500, 000 for their first week. If it bombs (which it doesn't look like it will do at this point) It could mean barely hitting 400, 000.

We also have to take into consideration that because we will be nearing Christmas that the second week sales of Eminem will drop less than if it were a non-holiday time. Sales remain strong and consistent throughout the lead up to Christmas. So his sales could possibly only drop 30 to 40 percent the second week as people hit the stores in bigger numbers.

All in all, my gut is telling me that U2 will be blocked from number 1, with Eminem opening at 800, 000, going down 40% the following week to 480,000, and U2 hitting number 2 with 440,000.

That's my best guess at the moment.

My Gut is telling me that Eminem will have to sell over 1 million copies to have a shot at remaining #1 the week "Bomb" is released. Since the week U2 is releasing their album will include "Black Friday", a 25% to 50% increase is needed to adjust ones normal predictions. This is a big business week close to Christmas. The first week of November that ATYCLB was released in, simply does not have this level of activity.

1. I think U2 will sale more their first week than they did four years ago because of the huge success of ATYCLB.

2. The week the album is being released in, is potentially the biggest week for album sales all year with the exception of Christmas week.

3. Vertigo is red hot and after only 3 days of airplay is already U2's 16th biggest hit on the HOT 100 ever.