Also, if The Hurt Locker takes editing over Avatar, I think it's winning Best Pic.
agreed. Best Editing seems to be the best indicator of what will likely win BP.
here's my picks:
Picture: Avatar
Director: Bigelow
Actor: Bridges
Actress: Streep
Supp. Actor: Waltz
Supp. Actress: Mo'Nique
Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
i think Bigelow is a lock. the last two serious female contenders were Sofia Coppola, who was beaten by a sure-thing (Jackson for LOTR trilogy), and Jane Campion, who was beaten by a little known director named Steven Spielberg who directed a not-important-at-all film called
Schindler's List.
it also helps that THL probably is the best directed of the bunch.
but Avatar represents what the dream factory can do, and the Oscars are all about awarding those films which the industry best feels represents itself, to the world and to history. this way, they get to honor a woman, and they get to honor the billions
that were made of industry professionals who were employed in the making of Avatar.
i could be wrong about Streep, but i think after 16 nominations, many will think that it's about time for her to finally win her 3rd -- for Bullock, a nomination is like a win. she's a genial actress, and knows what she can and cannot do, and it's nice that she's maintained a highly successful career after growing out of "girlfriend" roles. but Streep is due another, at least to distinguish her from the mere mortals who have won 2 times already (Foster, Fonda, etc.)
but who knows?