cjboog
Refugee
Exactly. Which is why I personally think the 350k is the least likely of the 3 scenarios.
NLOTH. Week 1
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Exactly. Which is why I personally think the 350k is the least likely of the 3 scenarios.
fedeu2
War Child
Her last CD debuted with 291,000 in the US. If U2 has a strong second week, you never know...
Yeah, I meant she´s releasing her album this week. Some said a few weeks ago that her last album was kind of a weak seller so I guess this one will sell more. Hopefully I´m wrong and our boys keep at the top for another week. How cool would that be? Zooropa was the last U2 record which was not knocked down after a week.
mikeuk
War Child
40 countries ??? Mike
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
vaz02
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Im still sticking to 32
ultraviolet625
The Fly
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Clarkson's album came out today and it is already number 2 on U.S. iTunes. She will also be on American Idol this week -- so unfortunately she will likely take the number one spot in the U.S. this week given that her first single was a huge success.
maxpouliot
War Child
305000 at 70% is quite good
Zoocoustic
War Child
Will it hit #1 in the US? What are the projections? I haven't seen any specific discussion on this and am curious if they are expected to have another #1 album here.
BigMacPhisto
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Quit whining about Kelly Clarkson, guys. She's one of the best major pop acts around and the new album isn't bad (although it's not 
like the first two). Don't even worry about U2 being #2 or anything else. The success of this album is really going to hinge on the tour/future singles. If U2 fails to deliver much on either of those, then this thing will likely sink fast given the American music market. In other words, it's a marathon (not a sprint) and U2's really only competing against themselves.
like the first two). Don't even worry about U2 being #2 or anything else. The success of this album is really going to hinge on the tour/future singles. If U2 fails to deliver much on either of those, then this thing will likely sink fast given the American music market. In other words, it's a marathon (not a sprint) and U2's really only competing against themselves.phommel
Refugee
Clarkson's album came out today and it is already number 2 on U.S. iTunes. She will also be on American Idol this week -- so unfortunately she will likely take the number one spot in the U.S. this week given that her first single was a huge success.
are we compaing uw wirh kelly who in this forum?
cjboog
Refugee
DEFINITELY. NLOTH will sell 400-500k and #2 will sell like 60k. Right now it looks like U2 is on pace to outsell #'s 2-14 on the chart combined
And 305k with 70% is GREAT!
I had a sinking feeling when those first numbers were coming in and it looked like the album was going to struggle to make 300k but now it looks like we are approaching the possibility of 450+ or 500k Zoocoustic
War Child
Great news. There is quite a bit of pride one can take (either U2 or the fans) in saying that the album is a "#1 album". Regardless of how long it stays there or how fast it falls, it is another #1 for the band and says quite a bit about them when they can continue to pull this off time and again.
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04072511
Guest
DEFINITELY. NLOTH will sell 400-500k and #2 will sell like 60k. Right now it looks like U2 is on pace to outsell #'s 2-14 on the chart combined
And 305k with 70% is GREAT!
What sort of predictions would you make for 2nd, 3rd and 4th week sales?
I remember with Bomb 2nd week sales dropped from 840k to 280k but then stayed around 300k for the following 3 weeks after that. I think it maye have even risen to 350k in one of those weeks!
Would you expect a smilar drop to say 150k and then levelling off for a few weeks?
ChangeTheTemperature
The Fly
Hits final number
479,753
479,753
The reason Bomb stayed up around 300k for a few weeks was because of the Christmas shopping season. NLOTH will be around 150k next week and will likely never surpass that total again.
maxpouliot
War Child
479000 nice!
Clean187
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I'm eager to see the official final sales figures from Billboard, but just a shade under 480,000 is a good number. The marketing efforts really paid off.
If it would've done less than what ATYCLB did in it's first week, it would've been a disaster. But, with such a weak lead single, they have to be happy with that figure.
If it would've done less than what ATYCLB did in it's first week, it would've been a disaster. But, with such a weak lead single, they have to be happy with that figure.
0
04072511
Guest
ATYCLB was released at Christmas time back in 2000 when the market was probably twice as strong as it is now. For NLOTH to surpass it in spite of those 2 factors is a great performance!
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
I'd round HITS numbers to 480K. And I'm happy to see that HITS was actually low in their estimate. Instead of 400-450K, NLOTH sold 480K! Good job!
For those of you who are new, hopefully you now see how HITS works. Don't let the first days results fool you (where 50% of the stores reporting showed about 179K in sales). You cannot extrapoloate HITS data. If we did, we should've seen 358K in total sales. Instead, we had 122K more!
Clarkson's CD is now out. It was originally scheduled for next week. Too bad it didn't stay that way as U2 could've enjoyed 2 weeks at #1. Still, it's total sales here, not weeks at the top. People rarely mention ATYCLB only hitting #3 - but they do mention the 4.2M in total U.S. Soundscan sales!
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
We can't compare to HTDAAB or even ATYCLB as they had the holiday seasons helping them.
Let's compare to here are Springsteen's HITS Daily Double numbers for the past 5 weeks (not counting this week, where NLOTH will appear) for "Working on a Dream" (I'm borrowing from myself in another thread
) :Week 1: 211,901
Week 2: 100,135; -53%
Week 3: 63,311; -37%
Week 4: 27,911; -56%
Week 5: 22,547; -19%
Week 6: 17,023; -24%
Total sales: 442,828
If U2's NLOTH were to follow the exact same pattern:
Week 1: 479,753
Week 2: 225,484; -53%
Week 3: 142,056; -37%
Week 4: 62,505; -56%
Week 5: 50,629; -19%
Week 6: 38,478; -24%
Total Sales: 998,845
If NLOTH followed Springsteen's "Working..." in a similar pattern, there should be about 1M copies sold to consumers after 6 weeks. "Working..." had a few big drops and a few small drops, so we can assume that this is what NLOTH will face as well.
Of course, any additional promotion or the emergence of a hit single can change these numbers.
One person predicted 150K for sales next week. If NLOTH really dropped to a scant 150K next week, that would be a 69% drop! That's huge for any artist, even in this slower time frame. I think a 50-55% drop is more likely. So we should still see over 200K in sales next week.
Clean187
The Fly
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ATYCLB was released at Christmas time back in 2000 when the market was probably twice as strong as it is now. For NLOTH to surpass it in spite of those 2 factors is a great performance!
ATYCLB was release on Halloween in the USA....too early to attribute opening weekend numbers to the holidays.
They weren't established as the "biggest band in the world" then. A lot of people viewed them to be Dinosaurs, and they certainly weren't as big in 2000 as they are in 2009.
Regardless of the market, you'd have to admit, U2 is bigger in stature now. I wasn't expecting HTDAAB numbers, as it was released in the biggest shopping weekend of the year, and had single that was everywhere. To not surpass those ATYCLB opening totals would've been dissapointing.
Irishteen
Blue Crack Addict
They sold nine times the number 2 
Awesome numbers
Awesome numbers
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
Not really. CD sales really start to pick up in November. Just because some of us wait until Dec. 23rd to shop (guilty) not everyone else does.
But I was really pointing to weeks 3 and after, as those weeks neared Thanksgiving, when clearly the holiday sales would kick in.
I disagree with everything you wrote.
U2 were established as the "biggest band" well before this decade. They received that moniker back in the 80's with the huge success of JT. As R&H and AB continued that trend, U2 has been the "biggest" for a while.
I also don't recall anything about the "dinosaurs" aspect. In 2000, Bono just turned 40 - hardly a "dinosaur". Other members weren't 40 yet. U2 just had a slip with "Pop" in the U.S. (still sold well around the world), but that's about it.
I recall in 1997, the record industry was looking to U2 to "save it". That's because the past four U2 releases (JT, R&H, AB and "Zooropa") had sold over a combined 25M copies in the U.S.! So they were definitely big back then. And not considered "dinosaurs" in '97 or in '00. Where are you getting this from? In fact, in 2000, I recall reading articles that when clubs played the remix of "Beautiful Day", all the college kids went crazy. Would they have done this if U2 were "dinosaurs"?
I do agree with some of this. Two big albums, tons of Grammy and other awards, and some big hit songs helped the band recover from the softer sales of "Pop".
But remember, music is fickle. I've seen Madonna albums really fizzle out fast, only to have her come roaring back with the next album. A song that strikes it big is all that's really needed. Age suddenly becomes irrelevant.
U2 slowed just a bit with "Pop", but even that album generated a Top 10 hit (U2's last one to date) and another Top 30 hit. The album still went Platinum, still debuted at #1 and the first leg of the tour was a huge hit in the U.S. (PopMart only suffered a bit on the last U.S. leg when some smaller markets couldn't support a stadium show). So really, they were still big then.
I would also argue that "Beautiful Day" was a monster single, so ATYCLB actually had rather soft sales in its first week. Granted, it was Halloween and not Thanksgiving, but with that type of single, and given that 2000 was not 2009 (in terms of the economy and illegal downloads), it should have been bigger. Still, at the time this was U2's best week ever in the SoundScan era.
With GOYB being a softer first single, U2 had to rely on HTDAAB - an album released 4.5 years ago! The first week for NLOTH could have been as soft as Springsteen's latest, which he supported with a Super Bowl appearance! Again, fickle music. I'm glad NLOTH is doing well.
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04072511
Guest
U2 were not the biggest in 2000. In the U.S., bands like Limp Bizkit and Korn were the rage and you also had Britney Spears and N'Sync at their commercial peaks. That's why U2 had to work so hard by doing any TV show that would have them. For the first time in years, they were not guaranteed a top music magazine cover. ATYCLB was projected by some analysts to only sell about 200k in its first week. Despite it's impressive opening, it fell out of the top 20 in week 4. Also, Beautiful Day, as someone else posted, was not an immediate smash.
Maoilbheannacht
Refugee
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Limp Bizkit, Korn, Britney Spears, and N'Sync could not come anywhere near
U2's numbers in terms of selling concert tickets. In addition, All That You Can't Leave Behind outsold the biggest sellers by Limp Bizkit and Korn worldwide. N'Sync's only stadium tour of the United States had worse attendance and gross figures than most shows on POPMART back in 1997. Whats more, N'Sync was not popular enough outside North America to take that tour anywhere else.
Who is the biggest artist in the United States, the world etc, is not based on simply just album sales. Concert ticket sales are just as important as album sales.
The only artist who came close to U2 back in 2000 when considering current sales of the latest studio album and latest tour worldwide were Shania Twain and the Backstreet Boys.
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