So what are people saying its going to be a failure? because thats what it sounds like from this thread.
No, we are just being more realistic.
In 2000 and 2001, I wanted ATYCLB to become a big hit. After "Pop's" softer sales, U2 was in new territory. If their next album didn't break out, it meant that U2 may have just transitioned to one of those bands where their older stuff was great, but that the overall public didn't care about them any more, other than the die-hards. I didn't see U2 in that way yet, and fortunately, neither did the public.
After the wild success of ATYCLB (and in the illegal download era), I hoped HTDAAB would follow-up as a hit to show that U2 had sustaining power. It occurred. U2 have proven they can sell Multi-Platinum albums in the U.S. in multiple decades.
With NLOTH, the pressure is off. U2 proved themselves many times. Now they were able to write something just for the enjoyment of writing. No real goal to have an album out, unless they wanted one. No real goal to create that "great hit song", unless they wanted. It was music in its purest form.
Trouble is, as excellent as the album is, that type of music doesn't always sell well. I recall early reviews of JT where it wasn't predicted to be a huge hit. It was believed that the album wasn't that accessible. Clearly that was proven wrong. But will NLOTH be the same, or will we see softer sales?
At this point, unless a song just breaks out, I will be happy to see NLOTH reach Double Platinum. It may see "Zooropa" like sales. I am hoping it won't stop at "Pop" levels. While "Pop" still sold about 1.5M copies in the U.S., I always felt that was light. But perhaps deserved for that album. NLOTH deserves more.
However, given what Springsteen is seeing, and this after a Super Bowl performance, and given what Eminem can do in one week, my guess is that NLOTH may be between "Pop" and "Zooropa" overall (again, unless a song just takes off). U2's age is playing a role.
Still, one never knows - if U2 relied on "The Fly" for too long, AB may have suffered. But they quickly released "Mysterious Ways" followed by "One" and that kept the album going strong for months and months. If GOYB is like "The Fly", U2 now need to get a second single out ASAP, otherwise, a "Pop" scenario could reoccur. Release a second single soon, like an edit of "Magnificent", and the public may lap it up. They won't outsell Eminem, but it could keep NLOTH going for a while. Follow up with a third single (either "Stand Up" or "Crazy") and again, this could keep the public interested. U2 are one of those bands that do not need a Top 10 hit to get big album sales. "Stuck in a Moment" didn't crack the Top 40, but it gave ATYCLB a big sales boost. So follow-up singles are needed - I just fear that U2 love GOYB too much and may be too slow to get single #2 out.
But still, is Platinum that bad? There have been Madonna albums that haven't reached that status!