The format will be dead in less than 7 years. You're fooling yourself mac.
-digital formats will change
-less is more; being green, clearing up shelf space or the car console, whatever the reason people don't want or need the physical format anymore
-why buy a physical format if all you're going to do is upload and play on other devices
-the cd will never have the vinyl resurgence
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- Audio formats will stay the same. FLAC has been the standard for high-end audio for awhile on stores like HD Tracks and for CD rips in general and I doubt that will change. MP3s will be the cheap option that comes with vinyl records or is sold via iTunes. There's no point in switching the technology when the multitude of formats we have get the jobs done in terms of high-end audio or compression.
- Agreed that people aren't as into collecting physical artifacts nowadays and it's a key reason for the CD's death.
- Absolutely. It's what makes the CD useless. Vinyl has a ton of plusses over CDs, particularly when it comes to mastering because you can't master a loud vinyl the way you can a Loudness Wars CD, etc. and, like tapes, has a unique sound to it. CDs are useless in that regard.
- Agreed. It will never, ever happen. No CD comeback. It's not analog, it's not cool, and you can get the same benefits elsewhere with modern technology without needing the whirring of the disk.
My only disagreement is about their lifespan. I still think they'll be selling millions for quite some time and that fans of major artists in particular want the keepsake for their collection (and the end of the line will only leave room for those bigger name artists the same way they tend to hog the DVD/Blu-Ray Audio market - because there's enough listeners of those big acts to keep it afloat).
The end of the era will be the $4.99 CD for new album artists and some reissued classics. The record industry could sell those directly via outlets like Amazon and it would be about equivalent to the royalties they get off iTunes or whatever. It's a way to sell to people that demand the physical artifact or they won't buy a record regardless. This will come soon enough, but I don't think it will ever really go away.