Survey--July 22, 2005: Many won't evacuate - U2 Feedback

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Old 09-02-2005, 05:32 PM   #1
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Survey--July 22, 2005: Many won't evacuate

I don't know if this has been posted and I don't know what to think about this at all. I heard about this on the coverage the other day and went surfing for it and managed to find it.

I don't know what to think, excpet that maybe next time people will take a mandatory evacuation more seriously.



Survey: Many Won't Evacuate For A Category 3 Storm




July 22, 2005
Courtesy of The Associated Press

NEW ORLEANS (AP) -- As many as 60 percent of the respondents to a poll of southeast Louisiana residents said they would stay in their homes if a Category 3 hurricane was approaching - a dangerous decision, according to emergency officials.

University of New Orleans political science professor Susan Howell, who directed the survey, said that although 60 percent of those asked at first said they would leave if public officials recommended an evacuation, on further questioning, only 34 percent of the residents of 12 coastal parishes would "definitely" leave.

She said the public doesn't realize that areas of southeast Louisiana are no longer protected by levees from a slow-moving Category 3 hurricane.

"It's been 40 years since the last catastrophic hurricane hit the city, Betsy, so we're asking them to believe the risk when they've never experienced anything like it."

The survey was released Thursday by the UNO Survey and Research Center and the Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Task Force.

In response, Jesse St. Amant, emergency preparedness director for Plaquemines Parish, said that the state's sinking coastline and levees no longer protect residents from a Category 3 storm, which can deliver winds of 130 mph and an 18-foot-high combination of storm surge and waves. He said last year's Hurricane Ivan, had it hit directly hit southeastern Louisiana, would have done great damage.

"The reality is that regardless of whether you lived through Betsy or remember Camille, though it hit somewhere else, if Ivan had happened here, we would probably not be standing here talking about it in this building," St. Amant said. "We would still be recovering."

In 2002, an official from the American Red Cross estimated that between 25,000 and 100,000 people would be killed if a major hurricane hit the New Orleans area.

If the new survey is accurate and significant numbers of people don't evacuate, St. Amant said, the number of casualties would be "beyond comprehension."

Howell said residents based their evacuation decisions on their perception of the risk they face in their location. And the two factors that weigh most heavily in that perception are past experiences with hurricanes and whether they feel their home is sturdily built.

And residents who lived more than 30 years in southeast Louisiana were least likely to evacuate, especially if their own home had never been damaged by a hurricane.

The survey also found that many people who evacuated during Hurricanes Georges in 1998, Lili in 2002 or Ivan last year might not have traveled far enough to escape danger.

At least 400 residents were interviewed in each of the 12 participating parishes. Not all results could be combined because of differences in evacuation problems or how far their populated areas are from the coast. The study began in the spring of 2004, and several parishes or parts of parishes weren't completed until after Ivan hit in September.

The problems experienced by evacuees during Ivan, including delays of 10 hours or more in reaching their evacuation destinations, don't seem to affect the willingness to evacuate, Howell said. An average of 86 percent of Ivan evacuees in four parishes said they would do the same thing under similar circumstances, about the same as those who evacuated for Georges and Lili.

The hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

http://www.ohsep.louisiana.gov/newsr...;tevacuate.htm
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Old 09-02-2005, 05:42 PM   #2
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I get the feeling that with this storm nearly everyone who could evacuate, did.
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Old 09-02-2005, 05:52 PM   #3
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I don't think they did.

Otherwise, why were there still hotels full of tourists (with their rental cars) in the aftermath.

Not to mention hospitals full of patients that weren't evacuated beforehand (who were the responsibility of the doctors and administrators, not to mention that hospitals should have been on a priority evac list.)

And etc., etc.
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Old 09-02-2005, 05:55 PM   #4
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I know a lot of the people who stayed are people that were too sick to move to begin with, I don't think it's so easy or realistic for hospitals to evacuate within such a short period of time. I just think the majority of those left are poorer people who didn't necessarily have a means of leaving the city.
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Old 09-02-2005, 05:58 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally posted by echo0001

Otherwise, why were there still hotels full of tourists (with their rental cars) in the aftermath.

It looked like there was a big problem with traffic jams on the interstate (I heard one reporter say she had only moved about a mile in 2 hours). Or they couldn't get flights out. Some people gave up and went back to their hotels .
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Old 09-02-2005, 05:58 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally posted by VertigoGal
I get the feeling that with this storm nearly everyone who could evacuate, did.
I don't think so. I think alot of people decided to stay, echo's survey kinda shows a mentality: "we'll ride it out."
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Old 09-02-2005, 06:02 PM   #7
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Not to be harsh... but you'd think that if people made that decision, they'd be up for the consequences. Yes, some people couldn't get out. But for those that could, well, you make the bed you sleep in.

Certainly, this is somewhat unprecedented.
But still...
You can't think you are invincible

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Old 09-02-2005, 06:03 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by VertigoGal
I just think the majority of those left are poorer people who didn't necessarily have a means of leaving the city.
A lot of people at the Superdome have been saying that. They don't have cars and either walk or rely on public transportation.
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Old 09-02-2005, 06:04 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally posted by For Honor


Not to be harsh... but you'd think that if people made that decision, they'd be up for the consequences. Yes, some people couldn't get out. But for those that could, well, you make the bed you sleep in.

Certainly, this is somewhat unprecedented.
But still...
You can't think you are invincible

They deserve whatever they got through Tuesday nite. Help should have been pouring in by Wednesday and prevented some of the real horrible stuff we've been hearing about.
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Old 09-02-2005, 06:06 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by VertigoGal
I get the feeling that with this storm nearly everyone who could evacuate, did.
I don't think so; I think WAY too many people stuck around for whatever reasons. However, I won't be part of the "well, those that stayed got what they deserved" mentality b/c NOBODY was prepared for this mess. But, I still wonder WHY people would still refuse to leave during a mandatory evacuation. I remember right after it hit and the flooding didn't seem all that bad yet, there were people on TV saying they'd decided to stay so they could help with cleanup right away. I commend them for their reasoning and willingness to help, but still, WHY is it worth it to risk your lives and your children's lives thinking you can ride it out? I'm not talking about the poorest and the sick elderly who really had no means of leaving, but for the people that DID have cars, DID have money, DID have connections, and not just for this storm in NO, for ANY hurricane anywhere......why?....I just don't understand it.
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Old 09-02-2005, 06:09 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally posted by MrBrau1


I don't think so. I think alot of people decided to stay, echo's survey kinda shows a mentality: "we'll ride it out."
Yes. People tend to forget, over time, how vicious mother nature can be. If it hasn't happened lately, it probably won't happen. Or, it won't be that bad.

Several years ago, I saw a documentary that covered New Orleans and the potentials for catastrophe in the case of flooding.

That show convinced me that New Orleans was an incredibily ill-prepared city. They mentioned the lack of land evacuation routes, as well.

But failing to evacuate hospitals is a glaring illustration of the city leaders total un-preparedness. They weren't worried enough to take the proposition seriously; they took a gamble that they could get away without a real plan to save their own people. That's damn nearly a crime.
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Old 09-02-2005, 06:11 PM   #12
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There was a guy on the radio here talking about a relative he has stranded there and apparently there are multiple Canadians in that hotel. He says that they were booked to leave early Sunday morning but the airlines cancelled flights 24 hours before the hurricane hit. It was too late for them to get a rental car at that time.

Now Canadian Foreign Affairs is advising them that they should not leave their hotel under any circumstances for fear of not making it out on the street.
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Old 09-02-2005, 06:13 PM   #13
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Yes, I feel the brunt of the responsibility lies on the leadership...


Defying manditory evac is one thing.....

But since this is such a national affair, the national government should take respontibility for it. He who takes the blame for the problems of the nation is the true leader


So who is willing to take responsibility for this, I wonder?
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Old 09-02-2005, 06:18 PM   #14
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Don't let the few die-hards distract from those who couldn't leave. And don't forget those who left, are now stranded, and have absolutely nothing to their names. That last group amonts to over one million.
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Old 09-02-2005, 06:25 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by For Honor

So who is willing to take responsibility for this, I wonder?
Good luck finding anyone...
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