2861U2
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
I think there's no question Obama wins. RCP has him up by 12 points.
there's no question Obama wins.
deep said:
then what?
will Obama win a couple more Red states
that will surely go GOP in November?
The South Carolina Chapter of the NAACP also said they will be closely monitoring the election process today to ensure there are no voting irregularities involved. Today, the largest contingent of African-American voters are expected to head to the polls to cast their vote.
Also, voters are being reminded to bring one of three forms of identification in order to vote.
Voters must have either a registration card,
driver's license
or picture identification card issued by the Department of Motor Vehicles.
CNN projects Obama wins South Carolina Democratic primary
Posted: 06:59 PM ET
Filed under: South Carolina
Posted: 06:56 PM ET
(CNN) — The drama of the past few days seems to have benefited just one candidate: Barack Obama.
More voters who made their decision anytime in the past month – including those who did not pick a candidate until Election Day — voted for Obama than the combined total of those who went for Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.
deep said:
are the polls even closed?
phanan said:It's going to determine the whole thing.
maycocksean said:^Eh, I'm still pretty doubtful about what that means for the long term. Though I disagree with your position on Obama, I tend to agree with your analysis of his likliehood of winning the nomination or the presidency.
I do continue to believe however that Hillary Clinton will not win either so I expect another four years of Republican presidency. I just hope it's not Romney.
yolland said:With 63% of precincts reporting, the current totals are Obama 54%, Clinton 27%, and Edwards 19%.
Some exit poll data from CNN (based on 1,905 respondents):
--83% said they'd be "Satisfied" if Obama won the nom; of those 63% voted for Obama, 23% for Clinton, and 14% for Edwards.
--17% said they'd be "Dissatisfied"; of those 52% voted for Clinton, 46% for Edwards, and 2% for Obama.
--77% said they'd be "Satisfied" if Clinton won the nom; of those 49% voted for Obama, 35% for Clinton, and 16% for Edwards.
--23% said they would be "Dissatisfied" if Clinton won the nom; of those 67% voted for Obama, 32% for Edwards and 1% for Clinton.
yolland said:
Black men (20% of respondents)--Obama 80%, Clinton 17%, Edwards 3%
Black women (35%)--Obama 78%, Clinton 20%, Edwards 2%
White/Other men (19%)--Edwards 44%, Clinton 29%, Obama 27%
White/Other women (27%)--Clinton 42%, Edwards 35%, Obama 22%
deep said:
"Though I disagree with your position on Obama"
My position on Obama?
is I like the guy, I have said I expect to vote for him if he gets the nomination.
I just believe Hillary is better to win in Nov and also survive reelection with policies similar to the 90s that were basically correct.
If Obama wins in Nov.
I think the economy and foreign problems will be laid at his feet and he will not get a second term. And we could get a replay of 8 years with a W type Republican.
yolland said:--16% said they'd be "Dissatisfied" [if Obama won the nom]; of those ... 2% [voted] for Obama.
[...]
--23% said they would be "Dissatisfied" if Clinton won the nom; of those ... 1% [voted] for Clinton.
2861U2 said:
Not even that, technically. I heard that its mathematically impossible for anyone to officially clinch the nomination on Super Tuesday.
maycocksean said:
Hmmm. It's pretty clear then that it was the "black vote" that gave him the big win. I don't think that's going to be good enough.
Keep in mind though, this is a Southern state, so you'd expect to see more racially polarized voting, even in a Democratic primary. In addition to Obama's huge success with black voters (who only a few months ago favored Clinton by considerable margins), he still managed to pull a quarter of the white vote, and Edwards actually got more of the white vote than Clinton did. End result, Obama won by 28%. Unless South Carolina turns out to be flukey and not at all predictive of overall Southern trends this time around, and I can't think of why it would be, then there's another 8-10 states with large black electorates where his prospects are looking very good. Now obviously, outside the South he'll need more than a quarter of the "nonblack vote" to win, but SC is highly unlikely to be predictive of the country at large in that regard. We'll have to wait until Super Tuesday to see how much bounce this win gave him, and where the momentum is trending now.maycocksean said:Hmmm. It's pretty clear then that it was the "black vote" that gave him the big win. I don't think that's going to be good enough.
yolland said:
Keep in mind though, this is a Southern state, so you'd expect to see more racially polarized voting, even in a Democratic primary. In addition to Obama's huge success with black voters (who only a few months ago favored Clinton by considerable margins), he still managed to pull a quarter of the white vote, and Edwards actually got more of the white vote than Clinton did. End result, Obama won by 28%. Unless South Carolina turns out to be flukey and not at all predictive of overall Southern trends this time around, and I can't think of why it would be, then there's another 8-10 states with large black electorates where his prospects are looking very good. Now obviously, outside the South he'll need more than a quarter of the "nonblack vote" to win, but SC is highly unlikely to be predictive of the country at large in that regard. We'll have to wait until Super Tuesday to see how much bounce this win gave him, and where the momentum is trending now.
Said Bill Clinton today in Columbia, SC: "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in '84 and '88. Jackson ran a good campaign. And Obama ran a good campaign here."
This was in response to a question from ABC News' David Wright about it taking "two Clintons to beat" Obama. Jackson had not been mentioned
ntalwar said: