Irvine511 said:
the insurgency has been successful in making sure that the new government doesn't actually govern anything and in creating an Iraqi Civil War that Colin Powell, David Frum, Peter Galbraith, and many other former neocon cheerleaders all acknwoledge exists. further, the insurgency is funded and fueled by Iran, much like the Viet Cong were funded and fueled by China and Russia. Baghdad will soon likely slide after Basra into the unofficial new Iranian empire. it's another proxy war of attrition, and we've lost again.
here's some interesting analysis:
[q]I spent a total of seven months in Lebanon recently, and I never could quite figure out what prevented the country from flying apart into pieces. It barely held together like unstable chemicals in a nitro glycerin vat. The slightest ripple sent Lebanese scattering from the streets and into their homes. They were far more twitchy than I, in part (I think) because they understood better than I just how precarious their civilized anarchy was. Their country needed several more years of careful nurturing during peace time to fully recover from its status as a carved up failed state.
By bombing all of Lebanon rather than merely the concentrated Hezbollah strongholds, Israel is putting extraordinary pressure on Lebanese society at points of extreme vulnerability. The delicate post-war democratic culture has been brutally replaced, overnight, with a culture of rage and terror and war.
What is happening in the Lebanon is a tragedy for the Lebanese, a horrible - and terrifying - conundrum for the Israelis, and a disaster for US policy in the wider struggle against Islamic extremism. And, oh yes, it is not, unfortunately, going to bring an end to Hezbollah...
“What will become of us?” is the question on everyone’s mind. No one can know what will happen after Israel lifts its siege and the temporary national unity flies apart into pieces. And it will fly apart into pieces. The only question is how far the pieces will fly and how hard they'll land.
http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001203.html
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ultimately, it doesn't matter how many tanks and troops the Israeli military has. Israel is a democracy, and Israelis are not prepared (nor should they be) for a prolonged and bloody re-occupation of Lebanon that will not guarantee security and is akin to the Little Dutch Boy putting his finger in the dyke. isn't it clear, at this point, that occupation is simply not a solution. it creates far more problems than it solves. it breeds long-term radicalization while providing only a modicum of short-term security.
it's quite clear that these military actions are simply not going to bring an end to Hezbollah, only an effective, centralized, empowered Lebanese government would be able to do that.
As the US military on the ground in Iraq has repeatedly said, there is no Civil War in Iraq at this point. Once again, the level of sectarian fighting and the area's effected by sectatrian fighting are not consistent with what a Civil War would look like in a country the size of Iraq. In addition, the Iraqi's have a united democratically elected government in place. The actions of less than 5% of the population obviously can make situations in certain area's very unstable, but that does not make it a Civil War.
Iran does not fuel the Sunni insurgency. Most Sunni insurgence do just fine with equiping themselves with the massive stockpiles of munitions left in Iraq from Saddam's regime, as well as some supplies that makes it into Iraq from Syria.
There have been some weapons supplied to some Shia insurgent groups as well as some shaped charged IED's. But most IED's continue to be made from 152 mm Howitzer rounds of Saddam's former military of which there is a massive supply located in hidden caches around the country. Most attacks on US forces continue to come from Sunni insurgent groups.
Far from being apart of any Iranian "Empire", the south of Iraq is still very divided among Shia groups who occasionally fight with each other. Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution and a former head of Clinton Administration policy on Iraq has cited the fact that the most likely chance for a Civil War in Iraq exist inside the Shia community itself and not between the other ethnic groups in Iraq. But that detailed analysis slips by minds to intent on casting Iraq as a victory for Iran and every Shia in Iraq as a stormtrooper marching to the orders of Tehran.
Basra is not apart of Iran, nor has it collapsed. Iran has influence in the area, but they don't have 8,000 troops like the British do, who by the way have found Basra to be a more peaceful place than Northern Ireland was for them in the early 1970s.
Israel is ready to do what they have to, to insure its security. Removing the rocket threat from Israel does not mean Israel has to re-occupy Lebanon in the way they did from 1982-2000. A buffer zone can be created that will prevent the attacks and will be a difficult if not impossible area for Hezbollah to operate in. It only requires pushing the fighting 20 miles from the border.
Military capability is a huge factor and will certainly be a huge factor if Lebanon ever wants to re-establish control over their country. The renewed military capability of Hezbollah because of the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon is a huge factor in this crises as well. Its obvious that the withdrawal six years ago was a major mistake. Instead of empowering the Lebanese government and military, it only made Hezbollah stronger.
Hezbollah's numbers have increased over the past 6 years without the Israeli's in Lebanon, so the idea that the Lebanese need Israeli military action as a recruiting tool is false. Israeli towns are being rocketed, and not responding to those attacks because of some theory that it will only make things worse is insane. Israel has not survived and prospered for the past half century because it decided to not use military action in response to invasions and attacks on its territory.
You will never have an effective, centralized Lebanese government, with a military that can control its internal security as long as Hezbollah is armed to the teeth and allowed to equip itself the way they have been for the past 6 years partly due to the Israeli withdrawal. You will never have a long term solution to the problem as long as Hezbollah is not disarmed.
Israel may not be able to disarm every single Hezbollah fighter, but they can weaken Hezbollah enough to insure their security needs. If Israel has to re-occupy parts of Lebanon for the next half century, it is ready and willing to do that. It occupied parts of Lebanon for 22 years, at relatively low costs in terms of casualties with the support of the Israeli population. Opinion polls in Israel have never been stronger in favor of military action than they are now.
On Israel's part though, it appears that they have been far to restrained and limited in their military action up to now. The Israeli military high command asked to government to expand operations recently, but the government rejected that option for now. 50,000 Israeli reservist have been called up though, and Israel will obviously be prepared in the coming days and weeks to take any military action it deems necessary for the safety and security of it citizens, just as it has successfully done for the past 58 years.