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Old 03-17-2003, 09:10 PM   #1
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Iraq Military Negotiating Surrender

I hope this is true.


U.S. seeks surrender of Iraqi leaders
By Rowan Scarborough
THE WASHINGTON TIMES

The United States has received "pretty good" feedback. But American forces will not know for sure of any surrenders until the shooting starts.
"We know who the leaders are," says the official. "It's not that tough to get in touch with them. E-mail. Cell phones. Any way that is possible and plausible."
Analysts have talked frequently about how the planned invasion of Iraq will be different from Operation Desert Storm during the 1991 Persian Gulf war, when the main objective was to evict Iraqi troops from Kuwait, not to conquer Baghdad.
One big difference is the way the U.S. military is attempting to communicate with Iraq's military beforehand to negotiate surrender or even to persuade commanders to turn on the country's leader, Saddam Hussein. There were no such efforts in 1991, Gulf war veterans say.
The communications are made in two ways: secret messages and psychological warfare, in which aircraft drop leaflets and mount propaganda radio broadcasts.
"There is some preliminary information that the [psychological warfare] campaign is having some early successes, especially at changing minds in the Iraqi regular army, which is the farthest down the food chain in the Iraqi security hierarchy," says a military officer at the Pentagon.
Iraq's ground forces are divided along a three-tier structure.
There is the regular army — a poorly equipped force of about 160,000 that is not expected to put up much resistance. The Pentagon expects the great majority of these soldiers to retreat or surrender, as they did at the start of the Desert Storm ground invasion. The regular army is Iraq's first line of defense against 140,000 U.S. Marines and soldiers in Kuwait.
The second layer is the Republican Guards, Saddam's best-trained, conventional ground forces totaling six divisions, or about 60,000 soldiers. They are armed with Soviet T-72 tanks, armored personnel carriers and shoulder-fired missiles.
Vice President Richard B. Cheney said on "Meet the Press" yesterday that the military does not expect much of a struggle from the regular army or the Republican Guard.
The greatest resistance, he said, would be with the new Special Republican Guard and the Special Security Organization, which closely guard Saddam's regime. "My guess is even significant elements of the Republican Guard are likely, as well, to want to avoid conflict with U.S. forces and are likely to step aside," Mr. Cheney said.
He added: "I don't want to convey to the American people the idea that this is a cost-free operation. Nobody can say that. I do think there's no doubt about the outcome. There's no question about who is going to prevail if there is military action."
Asked how Iraqi units will know to signal if they do not wish to fight, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said last week:
"They are being communicated with privately at the present time. They will be communicated with in a more public way. And they will receive instructions so that they can behave in a way that will be seen and understood as being nonthreatening. And they will be not considered combatants, and they will be handled in a way that they are no longer part of the problem."
The U.S. official, who asked not to be named but is involved in war planning, says one estimate is that about a third of the Republican Guard units will surrender, a third will fight briefly and then quit, and the remainder will extend the fight for several days until they are destroyed.
If Iraqi commanders do not signal surrender, by, for example, keeping the gun barrels of their tanks pointed toward the ground, then "we'll attack."
Iraq's third defensive layer is the relatively new Special Republican Guard, consisting of about 12,000 to 15,000 troops. Saddam created the corps in the mid-1990s to shore up his, and the city's, security. The U.S. planners think that some of these units will conclude that the war is lost and turn on Saddam.
Officials say the siege of Baghdad is likely to turn out to be the most important development of the war. War plans call for sending Marines and Army units from Kuwait, south of Iraq, and from the country's west and north, to ring the capital and force a surrender.
The U.S. official says the city can be encircled in four days, as Navy and Air Force strike aircraft and Tomahawk cruise missiles destroy key military targets.
"How long we will surround Baghdad is anybody's guess," the official says. Gen. Tommy Franks, who will command the assault, wants to avoid the confusion of urban combat.
Another U.S. official says the key objective is to seal off Saddam's power bases — Baghdad and his hometown of Tikrit, which is protected by some of his most loyal commanders. Other cities, such as the port of Basra, may fall on their own once Iraqis see the tide of battle going against Saddam.
"I think from the intelligence I've seen I think it's way too early to tell whether there's going to be a fight for Baghdad or not," Gen. Richard B. Myers, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, said earlier this month. "If the regime cedes the rest of the country then in many people's view it's no longer a regime. They're lost before things even started."
•Audrey Hudson contributed to this report.
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Old 03-17-2003, 09:21 PM   #2
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Ok Dreadsox. I can relate to this happening, but are we still doing "Shock & Awe" to promote the Hiroshima effect?

If this is so plausible, isn't there a better method without killing so many people, many of them civilians?

Honest questions here. I'd love to prevent deaths.
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Old 03-17-2003, 10:04 PM   #3
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I think that is a great idea. there is bound to be mass surrenders anyway, so they should just contact them first to save alot of lives, and the u.s. won't have to bomb the hell out of iraq.

I think it would be pretty damn funny if saddam's soldiers just handed him over without a shot being fired.
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Old 03-17-2003, 10:23 PM   #4
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I just hope many lives can be saved........oh, dear God please.
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Old 03-17-2003, 10:52 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally posted by Scarletwine
Ok Dreadsox. I can relate to this happening, but are we still doing "Shock & Awe" to promote the Hiroshima effect?

If this is so plausible, isn't there a better method without killing so many people, many of them civilians?

Honest questions here. I'd love to prevent deaths.
Do I think the whole army will surrender? No!!!!!!

Do I support doing everything to protect civilians? Yes!!!!!

Will shock and awe encourage surrender????? Yes!!!!!

Will that help save lives???? YES!!!!
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Old 03-18-2003, 01:31 AM   #6
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The US is making significant preparations to handle surrendering Iraqi troops. Diplomacy through Saddam is an outright failure. Diplomacy through military leaders may be the thing to save lives.
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Old 03-18-2003, 08:11 AM   #7
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I don't believe shock & awe will save lives, except maybe US lives.
I think it will kill thousands of Iraq civilians and is just another example of our gov't's lies. "We're here to liberate you, well maybe only what's left of you."
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Old 03-18-2003, 09:08 AM   #8
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Shock and awe is designed to freeze the Iraqi military and convince them of quick surrender. To think this includes the killing of civilians is off-base as it will have the opposite desired affect. The death of a civilian will make the Iraqi soldier fight harder for his country.
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Old 03-18-2003, 10:38 AM   #9
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I am praying for as many lives, Iraqis and others, to be saved as possible. I am going to the diocesian store today and getting a new rosary. It will be my "peace rosary".
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Old 03-18-2003, 10:49 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by nbcrusader
Shock and awe is designed to freeze the Iraqi military and convince them of quick surrender. To think this includes the killing of civilians is off-base as it will have the opposite desired affect. The death of a civilian will make the Iraqi soldier fight harder for his country.
I know that is the desired effect of "Shock & Awe", I also know that much of the arsenal are smart bombs. However, during Desert Storm smart bombs mistook bomb shelters as underground military targets and killed many civilians.
The sheer number of bombs in S&A make mistakes more likely.
Whether the media will be allowed to see the mistakes and carnage remains to be seen.

Verte76, I'm with you. I pray for the least loss of life on both sides as possible.
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Old 03-18-2003, 11:20 AM   #11
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Originally posted by Scarletwine
Whether the media will be allowed to see the mistakes and carnage remains to be seen.
We will see more during this conflict than we ever have before. The '91 Gulf War was dubbed the "Video Game" war - we all got to see smart bombs fly through windows of targets. This time around, many soldiers will be equiped with "lipstick cams". This will be the "Reality TV" war.

But, I agree with both you and Verte76 - believers are called to be peacemakers - pray for peace and preservation of life.
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Old 03-18-2003, 11:27 AM   #12
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Make no mistake about it. This war will be as media orchestrated as the last Gulf War. The U.S. media is still under a virtual gag order, put in place by the Pentagon since after the Vietnam War. Clever editing and "credible" news anchors aside, the only coverage you will get is government-fed video clips. And how is this any different than the media of the country we are trying to "liberate"?

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Old 03-18-2003, 11:33 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally posted by nbcrusader
Shock and awe is designed to freeze the Iraqi military and convince them of quick surrender. To think this includes the killing of civilians is off-base as it will have the opposite desired affect. The death of a civilian will make the Iraqi soldier fight harder for his country.
Ok, I appreciate that the idea of the "shock and awe" tactics is to make the Iraqi military surrender quickly, and so theoretically save the lives of both US and Iraqi soldiers. However, how is it possible that a tactic which will involve dropping hundreds of bombs on Baghdad on the first day of war not kill a huge number of innocent civilians? We saw how well "smart bombs" worked in Afghanistan, we saw how well they worked when they bombed an air-raid shelter in the first Gulf war...
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Old 03-18-2003, 02:43 PM   #14
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Lipstick Cams???
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Old 03-18-2003, 02:58 PM   #15
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Originally posted by oktobergirl
Lipstick Cams???
A small, wearable color television camera that can be attached to the side of a helmet.
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