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Old 07-31-2004, 10:52 AM   #31
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I might add that I really don't believe in polls. I was recently puzzled by the polls from Tennessee. Rasmussen claimed that Bush had an eight-point lead there, 49%-41%. However, Zogby claimed that the state was a dead heat. The polls were taken at the same time. In Oklahoma, two Republicans were supposedly in a dead heat in a Senatorial race. When the actual election took place it was a landslide for one of the candidates, 61%-39%. I can only wonder how the pundits and pollsters got that much egg off of their faces. I've seen similar situations right here in Alabama. One year a Congressional race was supposedly a dead heat, but the actual election wasn't even close. So I really doubt the accuracy of polls.
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Old 07-31-2004, 05:45 PM   #32
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Originally posted by BostonAnne
On congress.org, people can pledge their vote and later change it. While I'm not sure how accurate it is, it is really neat to check out the map and see how many people from each state pledged.

http://www.congress.org/congressorg/home/
Interesting, if only the map could be repeated on November 2 in the real election.
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Old 07-31-2004, 08:20 PM   #33
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In interviews on Thursday, July 29-before the Kerry nomination acceptance speech-Kerry/Edwards received the support of 47 percent of registered voters, Bush/Cheney 45 percent and Nader/Camejo 2 percent, according to the Newsweek Poll. In Friday interviews after the speech, Kerry/Edwards received 50 percent, Bush/Cheney 40 percent and Nader/Camejo 3 percent. In the two-way race, in interviews on July 29, Kerry/Edwards received 49 percent and Bush/Cheney 47 percent. On July 30, Kerry/Edwards got 54 percent and Bush/Cheney 41 percent, the poll shows.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040731/nysa010a_3.html
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Old 08-01-2004, 10:31 PM   #34
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"Poll: No 'bounce' for Kerry so far"

Over the years, I have found the CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP poll to be the most accurate. The results are now in for a poll that was conducted Friday and Saturday after Kerry's acceptence speach on Thursday night.


http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/...nce/index.html


"Poll: No 'bounce' for Kerry so far"

"Bush and Democratic nominee still running neck and neck
Sunday, August 1, 2004 Posted: 8:04 PM EDT (0004 GMT)"


"(CNN) -- The race between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry is as close as it has ever been, even after the Democratic National Convention last week, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Sunday."

"The poll -- conducted Friday and Saturday, after Kerry's acceptance of the Democratic nomination Thursday night -- found the senator from Massachusetts running slightly ahead of Bush among registered voters but slightly behind among likely voters."

"In each case, the difference between the two men was less than the margin of error, making the results a statistical tie."

"Of the 1,011 adult Americans interviewed, 916 identified themselves as registered voters and 763 said they were likely voters."

"The registered voters surveyed favored Kerry over Bush 50-47, a slight change from 49-45 found in a similar poll conducted two weeks ago."

"The likely voters polled favored Bush 50-47, whereas two weeks earlier they had favored Kerry 49-47."

"When Nader was offered as an option, 3 percent of registered voters left Kerry's column to support the consumer advocate -- bringing Kerry down to a tie with Bush, 47-47. Two percent of likely voters chose Nader, increasing Bush's lead over Kerry to 50-46. Those results are all within the margin of error."
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Old 08-01-2004, 10:58 PM   #35
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Since everyone disagrees with which poll is most accurate, I'll take the Newsweek poll above and average it in with the CNN/USA TODAY/GALLOP Poll.

I'll use the registered voter polls instead of the likely voter polls which should benefit Kerry. I'll average in the two way race poll and the 3 way race poll as well.

The combined two way race poll of Newsweek CNN/USA TODAY/GALLOP would be:

Kerry 52%
Bush 44%

For a three way race poll, the results would be:

Kerry 47.5%
Bush 42.5%



The incredible thing about the CNN/USA TODAY/GALLOP poll is that its results showed that Kerry LOST GROUND with both registered voters and likely voters. Among Likely voters, Bush is now leading Kerry in both a two way race and 3 way race where as before the convention, Kerry had a slight lead.

According to the CNN/USA TODAY/GALLOP poll, not only did Kerry not get ANY statistical bounce from the convention, but he actually dropped and fell behind Bush, suggesting the unusual idea that the convention slightly hurt him rather than helped him.

I honestly believed Kerry would be up by at least 8 points in the CNN/USA TODAY/GALLOP poll. To see Kerry actually behind Bush among likely voters after the Democratic convention is shocking and could be disasterous for his election chances.

Even when the CNN/USA TODAY/GALLOP poll is averaged in with the Newsweek one, Kerry does not get much of a bounce at all.
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Old 08-02-2004, 10:25 AM   #36
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another 'no bounce' poll:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...fterconvention
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Old 08-02-2004, 10:28 AM   #37
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BluberryPoptart

Yep,
" Analysts said the lack of a bounce may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say their minds are made up and won't change. "The convention, typically a kicking-off point for a party, is now merely a reaffirmation" of where voters stand, said David Moore, senior editor of the Gallup Poll."
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Old 08-02-2004, 10:40 AM   #38
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Like I said earlier, I'm a poll skeptic. Furthermore, some analysts don't think there are going to be any post-convention bounces this year because the electorate is so polarized. More people are tuned into the race than is usually the case this early. More people have already decided who they are voting for. If you want polls, most of the electorate had not tuned into the race this early in 2000. Many more of the voters are tuned into this one. The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll is contradicted by a Newsweek poll. I've been seeing huge discrepancies in polls all year, particularly between Zogby's and Rasmussen. I think polls are a vague impression of popular opinion and are not to be taken as gospel truth. I've pointed out some of the discrepancies I've seen in polls. This includes a Congressional race in my own district one year. The Sunday before the election the newspapers claimed that the race was a dead heat. I thought my candidate, the Democrat, was going to lose. Much to my shock, the election wasn't even close. The Democrat won 54%-46%. Someone screwed up.
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Old 08-02-2004, 10:44 AM   #39
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Klaus, you're quite right. Too bad I didn't see your post before I did mine. If you ask me this race is still too close to call, and it probably will stay this way until Election Day. Again, if you want polls, I've seen poll after poll claiming that 90% of the electorate has their mind made up. Nearly all Kerry supporters are decided, and so are Bush supporters. It's the 10% or so of the undecideds that are up for grabs. I think you make any kind of prediction at your own peril. I am certainly not going to make one. In the past a far higher percentage of the electorate has been undecided at this point in the race, thus the bigger post convention bounces. Furthermore, many of these bounces consisted of support that was actually quite soft. At one point in 2000 Al Gore led by 11 points. Then the debates came and everything changed. We still have the debates. They're important too.
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Old 08-02-2004, 12:58 PM   #40
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What has the public taken away from the Democratic Convention? Any clear message (other than replacing Bush)?
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Old 08-02-2004, 01:11 PM   #41
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You hit it on the head NBC.

I mentioned it before, the Dems strictly want him out of office. I think if they chose Bart Simpson as their nomination, they'd vote for him simply because its not Bush.

I just read that cnn article - very good news!
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Old 08-02-2004, 01:19 PM   #42
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People who are voting for Bush telling Kerry voters why they're voting for Kerry makes abouyt as much sense as whites telling blacks why the NAACP is irrelvant. Oh no wait, you guys did that, too.
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Old 08-02-2004, 01:27 PM   #43
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Please, give us guidelines on who may have opinions on what subjects.

Thanks.
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Old 08-02-2004, 01:36 PM   #44
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Of course you're entitled to your opinion. And I'm entitled to mine. I'm not shouting you down, or telling you that you shouldn't say what you've said. I just think you're wrong.
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Old 08-02-2004, 01:37 PM   #45
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Oh for God's sake. Thatguy, you are simply are discrediting yourself as a poster with comments like that.
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