How Big Of A Bounce? - Page 2 - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Free Your Mind > Free Your Mind Archive
Click Here to Login
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 07-30-2004, 02:01 PM   #16
Blue Crack Addict
 
verte76's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: hoping for changes
Posts: 23,331
Local Time: 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by nbcrusader
Ratings for the convention were down from the Gore acceptance speech in 2000.
This doesn't surprise me since more people have decided who they are voting for in November.
__________________

__________________
verte76 is offline  
Old 07-30-2004, 05:58 PM   #17
War Child
 
najeena's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: an island paradise
Posts: 995
Local Time: 02:13 PM
I imagine both candidates will get a 'bounce' from their respective conventions, and that things will remain neck and neck until the debates. That's when I think Kerry will trounce Bush, who's record and debate skills are both less than stellar.
__________________

__________________
najeena is offline  
Old 07-30-2004, 06:19 PM   #18
Blue Crack Addict
 
verte76's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: hoping for changes
Posts: 23,331
Local Time: 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by najeena
I imagine both candidates will get a 'bounce' from their respective conventions, and that things will remain neck and neck until the debates. That's when I think Kerry will trounce Bush, who's record and debate skills are both less than stellar.
This is possible given that there will probably still be undecided voters. I understand that this election is different from 2000, but at one point Al Gore had an eleven-point lead in the polls and look what happened. The debates nuked him.

*edited because I can't type*
__________________
verte76 is offline  
Old 07-30-2004, 06:23 PM   #19
Blue Crack Addict
 
nbcrusader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Southern California
Posts: 22,071
Local Time: 06:13 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by najeena
That's when I think Kerry will trounce Bush, who's record and debate skills are both less than stellar.
I remember similar naive optimism about Gore in the debates....
__________________
nbcrusader is offline  
Old 07-30-2004, 06:49 PM   #20
War Child
 
najeena's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: an island paradise
Posts: 995
Local Time: 02:13 PM
Naive optimism? I thought it was an honest opinion, silly me. Kerry is a great closer, and I DO think he'll do well in the debates. Call me naive if you want to, NBC. I don't think optimism is a bad thing.
__________________
najeena is offline  
Old 07-30-2004, 07:10 PM   #21
Refugee
 
ThatGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Vertigo
Posts: 1,277
Local Time: 06:13 AM
Perhaps the Gore team misunderestimated Bush in the debates. I don't think it will happen again. I believe Kerry will have worked harder to embetter himself for these debates.

Also, the Zogby polls say the bounce is pretty good.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849
__________________
ThatGuy is offline  
Old 07-30-2004, 07:34 PM   #22
Blue Crack Addict
 
verte76's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: hoping for changes
Posts: 23,331
Local Time: 02:13 PM
I am shocked at the numbers in the Catholic community, of which I'm a member. Awhile back it was claimed in some publication, I don't know which one, that Bush was leading among Catholic voters. It's an absolutely lopsided count in Kerry's favor these days, 52%-37%. The poll states that the wedge issues like gay marriage and abortion have sort of blown up in Bush's face. Holy !!!
__________________
verte76 is offline  
Old 07-30-2004, 08:00 PM   #23
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 8,876
Local Time: 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by ThatGuy
Perhaps the Gore team misunderestimated Bush in the debates. I don't think it will happen again. I believe Kerry will have worked harder to embetter himself for these debates.

Also, the Zogby polls say the bounce is pretty good.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849
According to the Zogby poll taken the past 4 days, Kerry leads Bush 48% to 43%. A few weeks ago that same poll had Kerry at 48% and Bush at 46%. I guess you could say Kerry got a bounce in that he is now 5 points ahead instead of 2 points. In that since it would be a 3 point bounce which is nothing.

I think wait for the polls that will be done this weekend and show up on Monday. If on Monday we see Kerry ahead by say 53% to 40%, the election is over and Kerry will be President. But if Kerry is only ahead by say 48% to 44%, then I say Bush has will have it locked up. Where it gets tricky is when Kerry is ahead by 8 or 9 points, indeed a bounce, but will it be enough to last him to November?

The Republicans will get their convention at the end of the Month, and if Kerry only gets a small or no bounce from this convention then Bush will be idealy positioned to take a firm lead in September.


As far as the debates go, remember that George Bush did just fine in his debates with John McCain. John Kerry is not on the level of John McCain either in that area. While Bush is not a great speaker, the Kerry campaign would be foolish to think that the debates could win it for them based on what we know from 2000.
__________________
STING2 is offline  
Old 07-30-2004, 11:00 PM   #24
War Child
 
kariatari's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Iowa
Posts: 935
Local Time: 09:13 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by nbcrusader


I remember similar naive optimism about Gore in the debates....

Gore's problem was that his strategy was to keep his mouth shut and hope the the American people were perceptive enough to get that Bush wasn't exactly the brightest crayon in the box. Obviously, it didn't work because Bush didn't slip up. However, I think that if Bush goes up against someone who is willing and ready to have a gritty debate, he will be shredded to pieces.

The only debates I'm worried about are the Edwards/Chenney debates. Chenney does indeed have more experience than Edwards, but I Chenney's weakness will be in his inability to keep cool.
__________________
kariatari is offline  
Old 07-31-2004, 12:08 AM   #25
Blue Crack Distributor
 
LarryMullen's POPAngel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: I'll be up with the sun, I'm not coming down...
Posts: 53,698
Local Time: 09:13 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by kariatari


The only debates I'm worried about are the Edwards/Chenney debates. Chenney does indeed have more experience than Edwards, but I Chenney's weakness will be in his inability to keep cool.

I'm not worried (right now) because what Edwards lacks in experience he makes up for in charm. Tell me the last time you heard "charm" and "Cheney" in the same sentence.
__________________
LarryMullen's POPAngel is offline  
Old 07-31-2004, 12:24 AM   #26
ONE
love, blood, life
 
zoney!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: six metro locations
Posts: 11,292
Local Time: 08:13 AM
wink

Quote:
Originally posted by Headache in a Suitcase
the next democratic leader who accuses bush of using 9/11 for votes after that desplay at the convention should be muzzled for a month.
desplay? I think I may be misunderetimating Headaches's ability to embetter his spelling and grammar during the Bush term.

OK...I am going to go "muzzle" myself now.
__________________
zoney! is offline  
Old 07-31-2004, 03:02 AM   #27
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 8,876
Local Time: 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by kariatari



Gore's problem was that his strategy was to keep his mouth shut and hope the the American people were perceptive enough to get that Bush wasn't exactly the brightest crayon in the box. Obviously, it didn't work because Bush didn't slip up. However, I think that if Bush goes up against someone who is willing and ready to have a gritty debate, he will be shredded to pieces.

The only debates I'm worried about are the Edwards/Chenney debates. Chenney does indeed have more experience than Edwards, but I Chenney's weakness will be in his inability to keep cool.
George Bush went up against John McCain in 2000 and held is own and was definitely not shredded to pieces.
__________________
STING2 is offline  
Old 07-31-2004, 03:28 AM   #28
Resident Photo Buff
Forum Moderator
 
Diemen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Somewhere in middle America
Posts: 13,237
Local Time: 08:13 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by LarryMullen's_POPAngel
Tell me the last time you heard "charm" and "Cheney" in the same sentence.


__________________
Diemen is offline  
Old 07-31-2004, 06:51 AM   #29
Refugee
 
BostonAnne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 2,052
Local Time: 10:13 AM
On congress.org, people can pledge their vote and later change it. While I'm not sure how accurate it is, it is really neat to check out the map and see how many people from each state pledged.

http://www.congress.org/congressorg/home/
__________________
BostonAnne is offline  
Old 07-31-2004, 10:44 AM   #30
Blue Crack Addict
 
verte76's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: hoping for changes
Posts: 23,331
Local Time: 02:13 PM
Zogby also reports that there are far fewer undecided voters this year than there were in 2000. More people are tuned into the election than they were at this point in 2000, and more people have made up their minds. This will no doubt affect the post convention bounces for both conventions. We're not going to see the fifteen point bounce that Bill Clinton got in 1992.
__________________

__________________
verte76 is offline  
 

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:13 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com