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Old 01-04-2011, 03:51 PM   #91
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Who are the GOP?

Did someone mention Tea Parties? Come to mine. I can make you a wide range of different tea's from English Breakfast, Assam, Darjeeling, Earl Grey, Kenyan and naturally caffeine free Redbush tea. I've also got home made rock cakes and chocolate cake. There's battenberg, soft fudge, After Eight chocolates as well as hobnob and creme biscuits.
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Old 01-04-2011, 04:10 PM   #92
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Old 01-04-2011, 04:37 PM   #93
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LPU2, you keep mentioning Obama's nationwide approval numbers, but that number doesn't really matter. The trend is bad news for him, and RCP puts his disapproval number higher than the approval. The election will come down to a number of swing states: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania (potentially a GOP pickup), Virginia, and maybe a couple others.

Obama's approval numbers in those states as of August (most recent data I could find):

Ohio
Rasmussen: 53% disapprove (42% "strongly"), 46% approve
PPP: 54% disapprove, 42% approve. Independents disapprove 58-33. Healthcare opposed 53-38.
Quinippiac: 49% disapprove, 45% approve. Economic policies disapprove 54-41. Healthcare opposed 55-36.

Florida
Rasmussen: 50% disapprove (44% "strongly"), 41% approve. Healthcare opposed 49 (42% strongly) to 45.
PPP: 49% disapprove, 45% approve. Healthcare opposed 47-45.

Pennsylvania
Rasmussen: 54% disapprove (45% "strongly"), 46% approve.
PPP: 50% disapprove, 43% approve. Independents disapprove 61-32. Healthcare opposed 51-40.
Quinippiac: 49% disapprove, 46% approve. Independents disapprove 53-40. Would NOT re-elect Obama 48-42 (51-35 among Independents). Disapprove Obama's economic policies 55-40. Healthcare opposed 54-37.

Virginia
Rasmussen: 50% disapprove (40% strongly), 49% approve. Healthcare opposed 56-41.

Those are the numbers that will decide the election, and based on the November elections, I don't think they've changed much since August. If unemployment is 9.5 in the summer of 2012, and closes to 9.3 on election day, that won't save him. And if Romney's the nominee, he'll (Romney) no doubt be going in as the favorite.
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Old 01-04-2011, 05:20 PM   #94
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Those are the numbers that will decide the election, and based on the November elections,

while those numbers are something Obama should want to do something about, voters do not cast votes on approval, but they cast their choice between two candidates. it's a direct comparison between two candidates. all George W. Bush had to do was beat John Kerry, and that's just what he did.

i do think you're right in those states mattering most -- especially Florida.
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Old 01-04-2011, 06:07 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by 2861U2 View Post
LPU2, you keep mentioning Obama's nationwide approval numbers, but that number doesn't really matter. The trend is bad news for him, and RCP puts his disapproval number higher than the approval. The election will come down to a number of swing states: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania (potentially a GOP pickup), Virginia, and maybe a couple others.

Obama's approval numbers in those states as of August (most recent data I could find):

Ohio
Rasmussen: 53% disapprove (42% "strongly"), 46% approve
PPP: 54% disapprove, 42% approve. Independents disapprove 58-33. Healthcare opposed 53-38.
Quinippiac: 49% disapprove, 45% approve. Economic policies disapprove 54-41. Healthcare opposed 55-36.

Florida
Rasmussen: 50% disapprove (44% "strongly"), 41% approve. Healthcare opposed 49 (42% strongly) to 45.
PPP: 49% disapprove, 45% approve. Healthcare opposed 47-45.

Pennsylvania
Rasmussen: 54% disapprove (45% "strongly"), 46% approve.
PPP: 50% disapprove, 43% approve. Independents disapprove 61-32. Healthcare opposed 51-40.
Quinippiac: 49% disapprove, 46% approve. Independents disapprove 53-40. Would NOT re-elect Obama 48-42 (51-35 among Independents). Disapprove Obama's economic policies 55-40. Healthcare opposed 54-37.

Virginia
Rasmussen: 50% disapprove (40% strongly), 49% approve. Healthcare opposed 56-41.

Those are the numbers that will decide the election, and based on the November elections, I don't think they've changed much since August. If unemployment is 9.5 in the summer of 2012, and closes to 9.3 on election day, that won't save him. And if Romney's the nominee, he'll (Romney) no doubt be going in as the favorite.
Of the states you list, Ohio and Florida both have conducted recent matchup polls. In those polls Obama beats every single one of your candidates head to head. This despite 10% unemployment. Because my central point is that Obama's approval is only going to improve when the economy does.

Both Reagan and Clinton's numbers were lower than Obama's are now. Yet both were re-elected in near-landslides.

I doubt the republican party shares your optimism.
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Old 01-04-2011, 08:06 PM   #96
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The only difference is perception. It's perceived that Obama is struggling more than he is. That's what concerns me.
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Old 01-04-2011, 08:10 PM   #97
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oh my.

it's just dawning on me.

who we are talking to.

This post sold it for me.
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Whats extraordinarily naive is to think that voters won't care what the economic and job situation was for the past 45 months under Obama on election day. Obama can't run against Bush in 2012. He is going to have to defend his OWN record. He is not going to be able to pass off 9% unemployment in 2012 on someone who has not been President in four years. The unemployment rate is a negative, a big negative, and if Obama cannot sigificantly correct it, he is unlikely to be re-elected.
 
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Old 01-04-2011, 08:42 PM   #98
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i do think you're right in those states mattering most -- especially Florida.
What bothers me is that I don't seem to hear these types of acknowledgements coming from the conservative posters here. I respect it when someone can acknowledge when an opponent has a point; it tells me that person is really thinking.

Or is just because the conservative posters are always. . .well. . .Right?

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Old 01-04-2011, 10:02 PM   #99
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Old 01-05-2011, 09:27 AM   #100
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New Zogby numbers out yesterday:

Christie 43, Obama 40
Obama 41, Romney 41
Obama 42, Huckabee 39
Obama 41, Pawlenty 38
Obama 40, Daniels 36
Obama 45, Palin 38
Obama 42, Thune 35

Large percentages of "neither"s and "not sure"s included.
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Old 01-05-2011, 10:24 AM   #101
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Interesting numbers.

I think Christie has a lot of skeletons that might come back to haunt him and has some positions that will not sit well with the far right.

I also think Romney has some big hurdles with the far right.

Very interesting that they reside in the top two.

Although out of that list I think those might be the only two that can get independents.

This will be the GOPs hardest fight; trying to win the tea party types and the independents at the same time. If they don't I think big portions might stay home.

We'll see
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Old 01-05-2011, 10:35 AM   #102
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Massive opposition? Really?

You really think McCain had an easy win up until that point? You must be paying attention to a different world than I am.

I didn't say Republicans in congress, I said the far right. Limbaugh and many others(in fact there may have been a few in Congress) didn't like his stance on torture and Gitmo and accused him of catering to Obama.
Saying that McCain would have likely won if the economy had not collapsed does not mean I believe McCain would of had an easy victory.
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Old 01-05-2011, 10:38 AM   #103
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Unfortunately this is a very uneducated section of the population if they believe numbers like that occur over night and it wasn't the years of policy behind it that caused such dips. But that's just reality, a largely uninformed populace... and a party that caters to them.
One can debate the causes of the recession, but what is less debatable is that the President in office when things are bad gets to hear it from the public on election day.
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Old 01-05-2011, 10:40 AM   #104
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Way to dodge my friend
Hey, its the thing Republicans can do, but Obama can't!
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Old 01-05-2011, 10:48 AM   #105
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it's getting difficult to discuss with you because you don't seem to have a good grasp of the facts.

here's a site that combines all the polling data:

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

if you'd like to compare him to other presidents, at least in the Gallup Poll, you can look here:

Presidential Job Approval Center



hope that helps!
Well, the polling data I have looked is from gallup. Gallup shows that his approval rating has gone as low as 41% in the first half of 2010 and it also got that low in October 2010. The Gallup poll also shows a decline in Obama's approval since becoming President. Look at his average for 2009. Look at his average for 2010. What do you think Obama's average will be in 2011?

You claim I don't have a good grasp of the facts, but the above are indeed facts which you seem to have ignored.
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