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Old 02-21-2016, 08:51 PM   #601
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part V

Rubio has it in the bag? What race are you watching? Marco Rubio is the one deflating. Trump has a majority issue, but don't forget his little buddy down at the bottom holding 7% of the national vote, named Ben Carson. Those points are big, and a fair share of them are Donald-willing voters due to his outsider nature. And plenty of Cruz voters are Donald-willing, for the same anti-establishment reasoning.

Rubio has shown an ineffectiveness of being able to win *any* state. Neither the polls nor his campaign indicate when or where his first victory will be, and he's slipping in the national polls.

Donald Trump is the one who had this one in the bag. One can only hope for a brokered convention. That's looking like the second most likely possibility. And it's not very likely.
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Old 02-21-2016, 09:44 PM   #602
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I think he is watching through the wishful thinking lenses
I think your assessment is pretty good
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Old 02-21-2016, 10:00 PM   #603
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Rubio has it in the bag? What race are you watching? Marco Rubio is the one deflating. Trump has a majority issue, but don't forget his little buddy down at the bottom holding 7% of the national vote, named Ben Carson. Those points are big, and a fair share of them are Donald-willing voters due to his outsider nature. And plenty of Cruz voters are Donald-willing, for the same anti-establishment reasoning.

Rubio has shown an ineffectiveness of being able to win *any* state. Neither the polls nor his campaign indicate when or where his first victory will be, and he's slipping in the national polls.

Donald Trump is the one who had this one in the bag. One can only hope for a brokered convention. That's looking like the second most likely possibility. And it's not very likely.

Yeah, we've got bubble folks on both sides of the race in here.


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Old 02-21-2016, 11:03 PM   #604
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I still can't believe that the Republican electorate is stupid enough to nominate clown car... but maybe I should start believing.

Still think that the establishment candidate, namely Rubio, will surge with everyone else out and all the money flowing his way
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Old 02-21-2016, 11:06 PM   #605
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Dazed Marco Rubio Wakes Up In Koch Compound To Find Cold Metal Device Installed Behind Ear - The Onion - America's Finest News Source


i know it contributes to no argument here but i came across this while ago and found it pretty interesting, especially considering that this article came before Marco had that "repeating same line 4 times" incident
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Old 02-21-2016, 11:19 PM   #606
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I'm honestly ashamed that so many Americans are voting for Trump. He makes W seem sensible.

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Old 02-22-2016, 12:29 AM   #607
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I'm not crazy with my Rubio sentiment...it's expressed all over from sites like FiveThirtyEight to betting markets to the fact that Cruz and Bush and Kasich and Christie all wasted their time and money going after him. Yes, Rubio hasn't won a state yet. That doesn't matter whatsoever. He surged in all three states at the last week. Big time. Although in New Hampshire everything got deflated like crazy after the robot incident. It's only a matter of time before Rubio's establishment support and money eventually lead him to take over everyone else.

Trump has a very good chance of winning the nomination, mind you, but he has that damn ceiling that's being a hindrance for him. He's not going to be able to win when topping out 40% maximum in a two-way or three way race and over half of the Republican primary voters saying they don't want him to be their nominee. Also, the Ben Carson stuff certainly helps Trump at the moment (the bigger the field, the better his odds), but Carson's going to be out of this race by Super Tuesday at the latest. Polling shows his supporters would go to Cruz, Rubio and Trump roughly about evenly, so it won't really give anyone much of a boost when he does exit...but acting like Carson sticking around is going to play a big part in these things for Trump is just gibberish.
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Old 02-22-2016, 12:36 AM   #608
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
I think he is watching through the wishful thinking lenses
I think your assessment is pretty good
It's hardly wishful thinking. It's been known for awhile just what Trump's hurdles would be on the path to the nomination. A low ceiling (he's basically nobody's second choice candidate) and the establishment getting behind someone else have always been known hindrances...and I feel they will come to fruition soon. Might happen by Super Tuesday, might be a bit later. But eventually, I think Rubio clears 40% in the three way or 50% in a two way race nationally and then Trump is toast.

Lest we also take into account the fact that Trump has deflated compared to polling in all three states thus far whereas Rubio would have exceeded expectations in all three without the robot mistake. In South Carolina, Google searches for Rubio and Cruz skyrocketed right before the primary and they received as much searching there as Trump (who had no boost) with virtually all of the late-deciders breaking for the two of them. Trump consistently underperforms his polls which shows voters are afraid to pull the trigger and actually vote for the guy while undecideds won't even consider him.

Trust me, I want Trump to be the nominee just as much as the next liberal although Cruz would be decent as well. Marco Rubio is the one person out of that entire field that actually scares me and it has been hypothesized that he could do well enough with latinos to win this thing. This election's a slam dunk with one of the other two and it will lead to a lot of good down ballot results for the Dems across the country.
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Old 02-22-2016, 01:16 AM   #609
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part V

Okay Marco, those two posts were like the same thing.

"Let's not get rid of this notion that Marco Rubio doesn't stand a chance. Marco Rubio knows exactly what he's doing."

But in all seriousness... he's struggling to get second place finishes at under a quarter of the electorate. He has yet to command even a per-candidate share of the votes, much less a winning share.

Brokered convention? Rubio walks out as the candidate. Anything else? Trump fall equals Cruz rise. Cruz rise equals Trump fall.

There simply isn't a palate for establishment GOP. That's why Trump and Cruz are consistently pulling the most votes. That's why Bush went nowhere, even with tons of money. Rubio isn't full on establishment GOP, but voters clearly don't want even that. They want the crazies.

But you're right about one thing.. if Marco secures the nomination, he's probably our next president.
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Old 02-22-2016, 01:46 AM   #610
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Originally Posted by trojanchick99 View Post
I'm honestly ashamed that so many Americans are voting for Trump. He makes W seem sensible.
So much this. I get what others are saying about wanting Trump to win the nomination so Democrats have that much better a chance at winning...

...but still. Everything with Trump's popularity is embarrassing and incomprehensible on so many levels. And if a lot of people are voting for him in the primaries already, it's still easy to have that fear in the back of one's mind that if he did win the nomination, he might, at the very least, actually come close to winning in November.

Like I said before, I'm horrible at predicting this stuff, so I'll defer to those who are more well-versed in that side of things. But seeing all of this play out is still unsettling to me all the same.
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Old 02-22-2016, 01:49 AM   #611
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A Trump presidency (or, let's be honest, a Cruz one) would make the global view of the Bush years seem positive and laudatory. Think about how much work Obama's done to patch up relations since 2008. All of that will be undone, and more. I hate to think what subsequent presidents would have to do to restore America's global stature.
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Old 02-22-2016, 01:56 AM   #612
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oh well in japan whoever said that mirroring Reaganomics was a good idea is doing well in politics so I guess stupidity is pretty wide spread.
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Old 02-22-2016, 09:05 AM   #613
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Let's stop acting like Trump is the worst case scenario. Cruz is the worst case scenario.
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Old 02-22-2016, 09:17 AM   #614
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oh well in japan whoever said that mirroring Reaganomics was a good idea is doing well in politics so I guess stupidity is pretty wide spread.
All hail Abenomics?
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Old 02-22-2016, 09:17 AM   #615
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part V

Quote:
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Let's stop acting like Trump is the worst case scenario. Cruz is the worst case scenario.


True. But Cruz is who the Clintonistas most want to run against in the general. A President Cruz would be a disaster, no one will want him to win, not even his own party.

So long as it remains a three-way race, Trump will come out on top. I also think his recent comments in support of healthcare for all (!!) and Planned Parenthood (!!!) mark clear differences between him and the national party platform, enough so that if a brokered convention hands the keys to Rubio, he runs as a third party.

The only competitive ticket for the GOP I can see at the moment would be Rubio/Kasich, because FL and OH are must-wins to get to the White House. If the GOP doesn't win those, there's no prayer.

My guess is that the coming general election may be "close" -- on paper, the media will need it to be so that there's a reason to turn on the TV -- but the outcome may never really be in doubt and Mrs Clinton sails to a 51% victory. Because that's our divided electorate.
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