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Old 12-22-2015, 11:26 PM   #61
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2016 US Presidential Election Pt. IV

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oregoropa View Post
Candidate casino. You have 100 dollars in chips. spread them out on betting on the GOP nominee.

Trump $45
Cruz $35
Rubio $10
Christie $5

$5 on a big ass margarita

$60 Rubio
$40 Cruz


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Old 12-22-2015, 11:44 PM   #62
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Polling as a science only has gotten more accurate as the years went on, particularly in Presidential election years as the analysts can peg the voter turnout of various demographics to a T.

Kind of true, kind of not. The science of interpreting numbers has advanced, but the actual process of getting input data is a mess. Response rates are terrible, especially among the young. I get the impression that this is less of an issue for the most important polls (general election presidential polls) than other polls, but I'm not sure about that. Eventually, you worry about the problem of garbage in, garbage out.


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Old 12-23-2015, 12:12 AM   #63
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Polling when done right is absolutely solid, but you can't pick and chose who your polling audience is. Otherwise it doesn't work.
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Old 12-23-2015, 05:04 AM   #64
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Quote:
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Polling as a science only has gotten more accurate as the years went on, particularly in Presidential election years as the analysts can peg the voter turnout of various demographics to a T.



Really?! Answer me one question, by what communication are most polls being conducted today?


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Old 12-23-2015, 10:18 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto View Post

I do agree though that Trump is in no man's land. People could very well just be telling pollsters they support Trump in order to keep him at the top for the entertainment value or his actual hold on voters could be substantially weak. I also still can't fathom people wasting a day in a school gymnasium in Iowa or whatever to support Donald friggin' Trump.
Can you just imagine the first State of the Union speech with President Donald J. TRUMP!?
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Old 12-23-2015, 11:08 AM   #66
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I anticipate he'll have the capitol building (that's where the SotU speeches are, right?) redone in gaudy gold shit, like his ugly-ass home he was always showing off on The Apprentice.
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Old 12-23-2015, 11:26 AM   #67
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I'd say the polling got things very wrong 4 years ago. Remember when many polls had Romney beating Obama in 2012? Maybe they've gotten better since then, not sure on that.
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Old 12-23-2015, 11:52 AM   #68
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That's why you have to study the polls. Nate Silver is the jedi master of polls. He was dead on for 2008, 2012 and the two midterm elections. He goes in depth on which polls to trust based on their methodology. He's repeatedly mentioned that all this early polling means next to nothing.
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Old 12-23-2015, 12:00 PM   #69
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That's why you have to study the polls. Nate Silver is the jedi master of polls. He was dead on for 2008, 2012 and the two midterm elections. He goes in depth on which polls to trust based on their methodology. He's repeatedly mentioned that all this early polling means next to nothing.
Yep. I remember he was the only one that seemed to know what he was talking about in 2012.
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Old 12-23-2015, 12:46 PM   #70
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Old 12-23-2015, 10:46 PM   #71
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2016 US Presidential Election Pt. IV

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Originally Posted by mikal View Post
Yep. I remember he was the only one that seemed to know what he was talking about in 2012.

Although even he admits that the raw data coming out of polls is becoming of poorer quality. (Not to say anything bad about him. I think he and FiveThirtyEight are fantastic.)


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Old 12-24-2015, 11:17 AM   #72
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I saw a poll this morning on CNN that had a possible matchup between Hillary and 3 leading GOPers; TRUMP! / Rubio / Cruz666. Apparently two of the three had a slight lead over Hillary although it was probably within the margin of error.

CNN poll: Hillary Clinton maintains lead over Bernie Sanders - CNNPolitics.com

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The poll, however, suggests Clinton faces a stiff challenge from each of three Republicans at the top of the field. She narrowly tops Donald Trump within the poll's margin of sampling error, 49% to 47%, in a hypothetical general election matchup. But she falls behind Ted Cruz by 2 points (Cruz 48% to Clinton 46%, a shift since last month when Cruz trailed Clinton 50% to 47%) and 3 points behind Marco Rubio (49% Rubio to 46% Clinton). Among independent voters, Clinton trails Rubio and Cruz by 12 points each, while running even with Trump.
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Old 12-24-2015, 03:08 PM   #73
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It's a national poll, so it's a shade above meaningless.

That said I don't think it's a sure bet that Hillary wins the presidency by any stretch. Honestly I think all the Republicans have to do to ensure a crap shoot come November is to put up a capable candidate who isn't more "hateable" than Hillary.

They apparently this far have failed to get the memo.
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Old 12-24-2015, 04:01 PM   #74
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If the GOP had any sense, they would nominate a Christie or Rubio, that honestly should be the ticket and in that order.

However, these are republicans we are talking about. And to put an exclamation point on that, the tea party are going to get their way this time around come hell or high water. They have had enough with the so-called "moderates" from the last two cycles. They are mad as hell and they are not going to take it anymore!

TRUMP! and Cruz666 is the tea party wettest dream ticket since Palin's name was thrown around in 2012 as someone who should get into the race. Some here may not remember that lunacy but i do quite well...they really wanted her to run! Yeah she can't name one fucking newspaper, but who cares, she's a MILF who knows how to shoot a gun!!!

It's nearly a perfect storm with TRUMP! and Cruz666. Throw out all conventional logic, rant about things that piss people off, hurl insults like it's a celebrity cage match roast, add in the "3 G's", a sprinkle of "big gubbermint" and a dash of "wE g0t 2 t@kE 0Ur cuntree b@cK(!)... and you are off to the races.

The sad part is....this hypothetical ticket (TRUMP! / Cruz666 ) could totally win. Hillary isn't anyone's favorite gal by any measure. Maybe she should try and court the Bernie people once her eventual nomination takes place, by say, adding him to be on the ticket. Or does she go after young blood like O'malley?

Either way, hopefully demographics of this country today are enough to stop the tea party express from running good common sense and logic off of the cliff. Otherwise we are totally fucked.

Trying to reason with the extreme right wing fringe tea people is like trying to have sex with a mannequin.....not that i have experience in the latter...just saying. The parts just don't fit either way...in the case of the tea people...i think its the rational brain thats missing and makes the conversation so one sided or off balance. Having sex with the mannequin would likely be much more full-filling, even if there's really no way to...well....you know.
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Old 12-24-2015, 04:15 PM   #75
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You can dry-hump the mannequin
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