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Old 02-07-2002, 02:45 PM   #1
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Oscar Nomination Predictions

The Oscar nominations come out next week, any thoughts on that? I've made my predictions for these in the Forum of my movie site (http://www.currentlyplaying.com) but I thought I'd share them here to get some Feedback.

Here are my predictions for the Big 6. I could have made 2 or 3 versions of this depending on 2 other films, Blackhawk Down and Memento. I don't trust the Academy to recognize those films so I am going with a Gosford Park nomination as my trend here.

BEST PICTURE
A Beautiful Mind
Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
In the Bedroom
Moulin Rouge
Gosford Park

This is a toss up though, I am pretty much 100% certain about the first 4, but for the fifth film it’s a toss up between Gosford Park, Blackhawk Down, and Memento. OR, they could do an upset and dump In the Bedroom for Blackhawk Down although I doubt it, I think the race is between Blackhawk Down and Gosford Park to get a Best Picture nomination.

BEST DIRECTOR
Robert Altman - Gosford Park
Ron Howard - A Beautiful Mind
Peter Jackson - The Fellowship of the Ring
Baz Luhrmann - Moulin Rouge
Christopher Nolan – Memento

(there is a chance Altman will be shut out in this category but I am still betting he will get the nomination although it all changes if Gosford Park is not nominated for Best Film).

BEST ACTOR
Russell Crowe - A Beautiful Mind
Denzel Washington - Training Day
Tom Wilkinson - In the Bedroom
Gene Hackman – The Royal Tenenbaums
Ewan McGregor – Moulin Rouge

Again, we have some things that are for certain here, such as the first 3 films, but then after Crowe, Washington, and Wilkinson, it becomes less certain. Perhaps Hackman as he won a Golden Globe for this performance and it has been very well celebrated, but he did not receive a SAG nomination and that says a lot. Billy Bob Thornton has been mentioned for either The Man Who Wasn’t There or Monster’s Ball is quite possible. Ewan McGregor is not a shoe in either but he is a personal favorite and that’s why I chose him. Other possibilities are Will Smith for Ali and Sean Penn is a dark horse for I Am Sam.

BEST ACTRESS
Halle Berry - Monster's Ball
Judi Dench - Iris
Nicole Kidman - Moulin Rouge
Sissy Spacek - In the Bedroom
Tilda Swinton - The Deep End

A dark horse in this category is Renee Zellweger's highly praised performance in Bridget Jones' Diary. Spacek, Berry, Kidman, and Switnon are sure things. Dench could be left out, but I doubt it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jim Broadbent – Iris
Steve Buscemi - Ghost World
Ben Kingsley - Sexy Beast
Ian McKellen - The Fellowship of the Ring
Hayden Christensen – Life as a House

Pretty sure on these five...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Connelly - A Beautiful Mind
Cameron Diaz - Vanilla Sky
Helen Mirren - Gosford Park
Dakota Fanning – I Am Sam
Marisa Tomei - In the Bedroom

Dakota Fanning is the dark horse here (but she got a SAG nomination, can anyone say Haley Joel Osment?) there could be a variety of others in her place. Connelly, Diaz, and Mirren are for certain nominees.


My primary prediction is that A Beautiful Mind and Moulin Rouge are going to be very close in number of Oscar nominations, Moulin Rouge can expect to pick up nominations for Costume Design, MakeUp, Original Song (Come What May), Original Score, Art Direction, Visual Effects, and Film Editing. I am thinking it will end up with as few as 8 or as many as 10 nominations, with A Beautiful Mind picking up at least the same, at least 9. I also think Lord of the Rings will be right there with Moulin Rouge in many of the same categories as well. I think Lord of the Rings will get 8 nominations.

What do you think?
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Old 02-07-2002, 06:02 PM   #2
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The Oscars always pretty much suck for Aussies because for some reason they always choose films that have only just come out.
Seems the ones earlier in the year are majorly overlooked.
The reason that sux is because most of the time 3 out of the top 5 haven't even been released here.
I've only seen Moulin Rouge and LOTR out of the films which were nominated for the GOlden Globes.

Go for Gene Best Actor!
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Old 02-07-2002, 06:08 PM   #3
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I'm a David Lynch fan, so I hope "Mulholland Drive" gets a few nominations. I hope it gets one for Director and Picture, but it will probably have to settle for an Original Screenplay nomination. And even THEN, it probably won't win.

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Old 02-07-2002, 08:21 PM   #4
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Very astute picks.

I haven't seen Gosford Park or In The Bedroom. I am very partial to A Beautiful Mind-I just loved that movie. And Jennifer Connelly is not only extremely beautiful, but her acting was superb. As was Russell's.

I saw I Am Sam last weekend, and loved that too-but I know it won't get a Best Picture nod. What about Sean Penn though?-I think he might take Ewan's place in that list for a Best Actor nomination.

Since LOTR was shut out in the Golden Globes, it will be interesting to see what happens w/ the Oscars. Maybe they consider it 'too commercially successful', and the only nominations it will get will be for set design, costumes, etc.

One more I think would be Kevin Spacey-either for KPax or The Shipping News(if this came out in time).
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Old 02-07-2002, 10:51 PM   #5
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Sean Penn in there, because as usual he deserves it. Also, Kevin Kline, Life as a House was a good movie, and Hayden Christensen also in Supporting because he deserves it also. They usually match the Screen Actors Guild noms. I wish In the Bedroom got none at all, it sucked big time. Also, forgot, Judy Dench and Kate Winslett for Iris will be in there from the Academy. Oops, forgot also, no way they nom Ewan McGregor.
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Old 02-07-2002, 10:58 PM   #6
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rather than edit again, what a mess, forgot to add Gosford Park was so good, not a dull moment in that movie, and besides Helen Mirren, Maggie Smith was terrific, so she certainly could be in there in the noms.
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Old 02-07-2002, 10:59 PM   #7
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rather than edit again, what a mess, forgot to add Gosford Park was so good, not a dull moment in that movie, and besides Helen Mirren, Maggie Smith was terrific, so she certainly could be in there in the noms. And the person who made Gosford Park really neat, and is such a sexy guy, is Ryan Phillipe, wow! And what about his wife getting a nom? edit again, sorry, we've forgotten Billy Bob, he was in three terrific movies and gave three fabulous performances. And Monsters Ball is definitely one of the best.

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Old 02-08-2002, 09:34 AM   #8
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I hope that Guy Pearce gets a nod for Memento. I don't imagine that he will, but my fingers will be crossed come Tuesday morning.

It is time for him to be recognized for the brilliant actor that he is. If you don't belive me, then re-watch L.A. Confidential.

Great picks!! I usually make a list, but this year I completely forgot about the nominations until I read it in the paper this morning!!
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Old 02-08-2002, 09:39 AM   #9
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MOULIN ROUGE!
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M.O.U.L.I.N.......R.O.U.G.E!!!!


DO YA HEAR MA?


MOULIN ROUGE!MOULIN ROUGE!
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Old 02-08-2002, 10:22 AM   #10
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So you really liked Moulin Rouge, maddie?

PS-I'm totally with you on this one. That was a great movie.

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Old 02-08-2002, 07:36 PM   #11
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you know what, Michelle Pheiffer was so good, and she always is, and she's pretty much ignored. she did a wonderful job in Sam. And Sam is one of the best movies of the year, Sean Penn is incredible. Don't know how an Academy member can choose whether to vote Crowe or Penn, except Sean Penn never goes to the Oscars, and Russell will be there. But for the entire movie you are seeing Sam, not once do you think of Sean Penn, just like with John Nash. Sam is so beautiful and touching that it has to get some noms besides just Dakota. but what the Oscars really need is a new category for "Hot Guys" and then Ben Affleck and Josh Harnett for Pearl Harbor along with Ryan Phillipe can be nominated!

absolutely agree Guy Pearce was wonderful and so was Momento. He's in the Time Machine this Summer, just saw the poster for that, can't wait.

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Old 02-08-2002, 09:31 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally posted by mad1:
MOULIN ROUGE!
MOULIN ROUGE!MOULIN ROUGE!
MOULIN ROUGE!MOULIN ROUGE!
MOULIN ROUGE!MOULIN ROUGE!
MOULIN ROUGE!MOULIN ROUGE!
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MOULIN ROUGE!MOULIN ROUGE!
MOULIN ROUGE!MOULIN ROUGE!
MOULIN ROUGE!MOULIN ROUGE!
MOULIN ROUGE!MOULIN ROUGE!
MOULIN ROUGE!

M.O.U.L.I.N.......R.O.U.G.E!!!!


DO YA HEAR MA?


MOULIN ROUGE!MOULIN ROUGE!
MOULIN ROUGE!


MOULIN ROUGE!


MOULIN ROUGE!

WOOOHOOO!!!!

TRUTH

BEAUTY

FREEDOM

LOVE


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Old 02-08-2002, 11:09 PM   #13
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Woo Hoo fellow Moulin Rougers, I am right there with ya. I think that is the only DVD I have seen more times than Rattle & Hum!

I really do love Moulin Rouge and hope it wins some awards.

I also loved Sean Penn AND Michele Pfeifer in I Am Sam but I totally dont believe it will get any nominations, but I am with you there U2Live. It DESERVES them, but the indicators don't look good. It's a dark horse.

And Memento. It best not go ignored next Tuesday although like I said earlier, I doubt the Academy will be brave enough to nominate it for Best Picture so we may have to settle for a Screenwriting nomination...
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Old 02-10-2002, 05:24 PM   #14
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didnt Memento come out about 18 or 20 months ago? Whats it doing in these oscars? Good films though

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Old 02-11-2002, 02:58 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by cloudimani:
didnt Memento come out about 18 or 20 months ago? Whats it doing in these oscars? Good films though

The Oscar's pertain to films released in the U.S. from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2001.

From Oscar.org:

1. The required Los Angeles County qualifying run (described in Rule Two Paragraph 2) must open between January 1, 2001 and midnight of December 31, 2001.

2. A picture theatrically exhibited inside the U.S. prior to the Los Angeles qualifying run shall be eligible for submission provided the prior exhibition takes place in a commercial motion picture theater after January 1, 2000, and that no other form of public exhibition occurs through the completion of its Los Angeles run (previews and festivals excluded).

3. A picture first theatrically exhibited outside the U.S. prior to the Los Angeles qualifying run shall be eligible for submission provided the prior exhibition takes place in a commercial motion picture theater after January 1, 2000, with the following further conditions:

a) the film may not be exhibited publicly in any other medium for a six-month period following the commencement of its initial theatrical engagement, and

b) after the six-month period, the film may play in non-theatrical forms provided they are outside the U.S. (No film which is shown inside the U.S. in any non-theatrical form prior to its qualifying Los Angeles run shall be eligible for Academy Awards.)

In the case of Memento, it was first shown in September 2000 (per IMDB.com)at the Venice Film Festival but was not released to the U.S.(L.A and NYC) until 3/16/01 except for Sundance which was in January 2001.

Therefore, Memento qualifies for Oscar consideration.
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