NFL 2009-2010: Part The Second - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Lemonade Stand > Lemonade Stand Archive
Click Here to Login
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 11-16-2009, 01:03 AM   #1
Rock n' Roll Doggie
ALL ACCESS
 
speedracer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Posts: 7,604
Local Time: 10:18 PM
NFL 2009-2010: Part The Second

More analysis of Bill Belichick's 4th-and-2 decision from Advanced NFL Stats here.
__________________

speedracer is offline  
Old 11-16-2009, 01:10 AM   #2
The Male
 
LemonMelon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Hollywoo
Posts: 66,939
Local Time: 06:18 PM
Looking over those stats, and giving it a bit more thought, I will recant and say that Belichick's decision was logical. However, I maintain that the play call itself was awful and played against the strengths of the Patriots' offense, and that negates the numbers somewhat.
__________________

LemonMelon is online now  
Old 11-16-2009, 01:19 AM   #3
Blue Crack Supplier
 
coolian2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Hamilton (No longer STD capital of NZ)
Posts: 42,934
Local Time: 03:18 PM
as good an idea as any. given the momentum the colts had they were probably just as likely to score after a punt. the patriots big mistake was not letting addai run into the endzone with about a minute left - they'd have had a much better chance (albeit minimised because they were out of timeouts) of winning than hopelessly trying to hold the colts out.
coolian2 is offline  
Old 11-16-2009, 07:41 AM   #4
Blue Crack Addict
 
phanan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: in the darkness on the edge of town
Posts: 25,241
Local Time: 09:18 PM
The call, as risky as it was, does make sense. Again, I'm not sure I would have done it in that situation, but I understand it.

But to say it is because of arrogance? Please. It was more out of respect for Manning than anything else, perhaps too much respect.
phanan is offline  
Old 11-16-2009, 08:57 AM   #5
Blue Crack Distributor
 
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Stateless
Posts: 63,122
Local Time: 09:18 PM
i don't care what sort of wacky, convoluted stats anyone pulls out of their ass to state how the percentages don't lie and how it was the right call. you can pull out a stat for anything, if you really try hard enough. i once presented a logical argument based on common opponents on how the rinky dink, 5 win division 3 college basketball team i played for my senior year could have won the D1 ncaa tournament (we beat a team who beat a team who beat a team who beat a team who beat maryland). just because the stats are there to back it up doesn't neccesarily make it true...

if that was eric mangini who pulled that shit, everyone would be laughing at how dumb he was, and he'd probably be fired the next day for sheer stupidity beyond the reasonable stupidity that he shows on any given sunday.

the only reason why people are even trying to justify that 4th and 2 call is because it's bill belichick, football genius. well even einstein failed math. that was an awful, awful, awful, awful, awful decision.

i understand the arrogance argument people are making, i just don't believe it. i don't think he did it out of arrogance... i think he just made a bonehead call out of a lack of confidence in his defense.
Headache in a Suitcase is offline  
Old 11-16-2009, 10:15 AM   #6
Blue Crack Addict
 
mikal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Black Lodge
Posts: 25,656
Local Time: 08:18 PM
i have to chime in and also say that it was a horrible call. i maybe would have supported it if all the Colts needed was a field goal. but they needed a touchdown. and it's not like Colts were torching the Pats D the entire game. in that situation, you have to put it in your defense's hands, no matter who you are or who they are.
mikal is online now  
Old 11-16-2009, 10:18 AM   #7
Blue Crack Addict
 
phanan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: in the darkness on the edge of town
Posts: 25,241
Local Time: 09:18 PM
I don't think it was a bonehead call; in many ways, it made sense to try it. The Patriots offense converts fourth downs more than 60%, the Colts defense struggled all night to stop them, and the Patriots defense was going to have a hard time holding off Manning.

That being said, I wouldn't have done it. Yes, there's a good chance Manning marches down the field to win the game anyway, but there are so many things that could go wrong, you just don't know. What if the punt returner muffs the ball, what if a running back fumbles on a play, what if penalties make it impossible for Manning to overcome?

I believe Manning would've won the game either way, but because of the fact that anything can happen, I would've punted there.

In the end though, does it really matter? Regardless of the outcome of this game, the Patriots were still going to win the East and the Colts were still going to win the South. The only thing that could happen is losing the bye, but let's face it - the Colts were still going to get one of them, and the second one is still up for grabs. The Bengals are at 7-2, and then the Patriots, Steelers, Broncos, and Chargers are all 6-3. I still like the Patriots chances of getting that second bye.

Either way, it's a good bet that the Patriots will be back in Indy in January whether they had won last night or not.
phanan is offline  
Old 11-16-2009, 10:28 AM   #8
Blue Crack Addict
 
mikal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Black Lodge
Posts: 25,656
Local Time: 08:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by phanan View Post
In the end though, does it really matter? Regardless of the outcome of this game, the Patriots were still going to win the East and the Colts were still going to win the South. The only thing that could happen is losing the bye, but let's face it - the Colts were still going to get one of them, and the second one is still up for grabs. The Bengals are at 7-2, and then the Patriots, Steelers, Broncos, and Chargers are all 6-3. I still like the Patriots chances of getting that second bye.

Either way, it's a good bet that the Patriots will be back in Indy in January whether they had won last night or not.
you know, it's funny. i thought the same exact thing the very moment they decided to go for it. there's no way the Jets or Dolphins come back to win the division, and the Pats know that.

i still think it was a horrible call though, even if the Pats are good at converting 4th downs. you have to put it in the hands of your defense in that situation.
mikal is online now  
Old 11-16-2009, 10:59 AM   #9
Blue Crack Distributor
 
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Stateless
Posts: 63,122
Local Time: 09:18 PM
if the pats had won last night, they'd be just a game behind indy with the tie-breaker in hand... and the chances that new england and indy end up with the same record, thus putting the AFC championship game in New England, would be a hell of a lot greater than they are today.

so yes... i believe it did matter, and losing that game could end up costing the pats a trip to the super bowl.

speaking of the super bowl... imagine if some how, some way, indy and new orleans both run the table, and have a battle of undefeated teams in don shula's backyard? wouldn't that be some sorta awesome.
Headache in a Suitcase is offline  
Old 11-16-2009, 11:56 AM   #10
Blue Crack Addict
 
mikal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Black Lodge
Posts: 25,656
Local Time: 08:18 PM
as much as i hate Skip Bayless, it was kind of cool to hear him say that he thinks the Packers will be in the SuperBowl this year.
mikal is online now  
Old 11-16-2009, 01:09 PM   #11
Blue Crack Addict
 
phanan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: in the darkness on the edge of town
Posts: 25,241
Local Time: 09:18 PM
Even if they had won last night, the Patriots would most likely have had to run the table and the Colts would have had to lose another game in order to get the #1 seed.

Possible, but unlikely. Still think a return trip to Indy was happening no matter what.

But yeah, winning last night sure would've made it tougher on the Colts to keep that top seed.
phanan is offline  
Old 11-16-2009, 01:45 PM   #12
Blue Crack Addict
 
Screwtape2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Omaha, Nebraska “With Screwtape on Kettle Drum and Wormwood on Harpsichord!”
Posts: 18,353
Local Time: 09:18 PM
Standings aside I think that 4th quarter made it matter. What kind of confidence do the Pats defense have in themselves after that 4th down try and giving up 21 in that quarter to the Colts? I don't believe in the whole "having someone's number" or being in someone's head but the Colts won despite being dominated which may factor in the next meeting. I don't know how big of an effect those things will have but there is that potential. On the flipside, had the Colts lost they'd be a young team racing to recover against the Ravens. Instead it gave them confidence. So I think the game mattered.
Screwtape2 is offline  
Old 11-16-2009, 04:23 PM   #13
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
MrPryck2U's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Long Island, NY, USA, Earth
Posts: 9,320
Local Time: 09:18 PM

Hey, let's put the jinx on now:

Peyton Manning is having a great season along with his undefeated Colts. Will Shula's '72 'Phin team finally bow to a team that goes 19-0? Stay tuned.
MrPryck2U is offline  
Old 11-16-2009, 05:51 PM   #14
Rock n' Roll Doggie
ALL ACCESS
 
speedracer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Posts: 7,604
Local Time: 10:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post

speaking of the super bowl... imagine if some how, some way, indy and new orleans both run the table, and have a battle of undefeated teams in don shula's backyard? wouldn't that be some sorta awesome.
As awesome as this would be, not gonna happen. Bill Belichick is going to onside-kick against Indy in OT of the AFC championship game and the Pats are gonna win.
speedracer is offline  
Old 11-16-2009, 08:33 PM   #15
Blue Crack Distributor
 
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Stateless
Posts: 63,122
Local Time: 09:18 PM
true... and somehow eli manning will escape a 12 man gang tackle and drop kick the ball thru the uprights for a stunning one point victory against new orleans.
Headache in a Suitcase is offline  
Old 11-16-2009, 11:29 PM   #16
Blue Crack Addict
 
Screwtape2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Omaha, Nebraska “With Screwtape on Kettle Drum and Wormwood on Harpsichord!”
Posts: 18,353
Local Time: 09:18 PM
I don't think I realized just how bad the Browns offense was until tonight...
Screwtape2 is offline  
Old 11-17-2009, 10:33 AM   #17
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid
 
BEAL's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: San Diego
Posts: 4,632
Local Time: 02:18 AM
Yeah, they were really bad. refuse to even look downfield.

which was great as i had the ravens defense
BEAL is offline  
Old 11-17-2009, 05:19 PM   #18
War Child
 
AnnRKeyintheUSA's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: not coming down
Posts: 603
Local Time: 08:18 PM
How sadly ironic, the Cleveland fans have to watch the new Browns lose to the real, original Browns playing for another city
AnnRKeyintheUSA is offline  
Old 11-17-2009, 05:23 PM   #19
Rock n' Roll Doggie
ALL ACCESS
 
Mrs. Garrison's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: pig farming in Bolivia
Posts: 7,324
Local Time: 08:18 PM
Browns play the Lions next monday night. I guess fans of both teams can wear paper bags over their heads.

About that bellychick call, when i saw that all i could think of was, that was very Andy Reid of him to make that call. Why even bother having a Defense if you are going to take a chance like that?

Lots of crazy shit this weekend. The Cowboys...need i say more. Gotta love that Roy Williams fumble, and those drops. Probably not a game changer really because the entire Cowboy offense sucked badly. Losing Columbo was a tough blow too. But then again nobody else on the team is complaining about not getting enough balls thrown their way like Roy Williams. At least when T.O. did that he backed up his talk with good play. Roy Williams, until he proves himself otherwise, just plain sucks.

Vince Young has done pretty well the last three games. Not sure if he is completely over whatever was going on in his head last year. But you have to wonder if he started the season would Tenessee have a winning record? Maybe then the Titans owner wouldn't be flipping the bird to everyone.

Occasionally Adrian Peterson will fumble the ball just to remind people that he is human. He did that a few times at Oklahoma to remind us as well. He's still incredible. No matter how bad people here hate Favre, and no matter how bad the Cowboys were the other day or how bad the Packers beat us. I would still take Favre over Aaron Rogers until proven otherwise. Sorry Mikal. Im not ready to write anybody off just yet, but for anybody to put the Packers in the Superbowl at this point, or any other team for that matter, well thats laughable. The season is long and theres a lot of football left to play, every team has good days and every team has bad days. I'm not even a believer in New Orleans just yet. I think someone will knock them out in the playoffs, i have no idea of who or how or why, i just have that feeling. I guess whoever gets hot in late December or early January will make that run...or not.
Mrs. Garrison is offline  
Old 11-17-2009, 05:25 PM   #20
Blue Crack Addict
 
mikal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Black Lodge
Posts: 25,656
Local Time: 08:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrs. Garrison View Post
Lots of crazy shit this weekend. The Cowboys...need i say more. Gotta love that Roy Williams fumble, and those drops. Probably not a game changer really because the entire Cowboy offense sucked badly. Losing Columbo was a tough blow too. But then again nobody else on the team is complaining about not getting enough balls thrown their way like Roy Williams. At least when T.O. did that he backed up his talk with good play. Roy Williams, until he proes himself otherwise, just plain sucks.
i am proud to say that the Cowboys lost because they ran into a Packers team that finally showed up. this is how Green Bay should have been playing all season.
__________________

mikal is online now  
 

Tags
american football, football, national football league, nfl

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Makeup Sicy Lemonade Stand 792 07-18-2010 02:44 PM
Opening Acts 2010 - Lenny Kravitz, Interpol, The Fray and more ChangeTheTemperature U2 360° Tour Central - 2009 / 2010 / 2011 Setlist Party Archive 1000 02-24-2010 02:20 PM
Will they sell out stadiums in the USA? Chino General Tour Discussion 988 04-26-2009 04:19 PM
Shuttlecock! Part XIII - Midnight is when her work begins impy13 Lemonade Stand Archive 1016 03-09-2009 04:41 PM
''Kiss the Future'' Tour (now named U2 360° Tour) ajax General Tour Discussion 996 03-09-2009 03:38 PM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:18 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com
×