NLOTH Week 2

[KUEFC09U2]

This album won't be reaching Pop type numbers though. If the returns continue in the current fashion, it'll have barely passed the 500K mark going into a third week where it might sell as low as 15K. Really, color me shocked if this album manages to succeed a million in Soundscan sales.

Why would it drop from 150kish to 15k?

 

[Yahweh]

Anybody would have been an idiot to portray this album as being the savior of the music industry. They did the same thing with POP and that was at a time when CD sales were still relitively strong compaired to where they are today (although the music industry didnt do anything proactive to help the problem when they could see it coming back in 95-97).

Also U2 is almost 50 years old now so they arent getting any younger. The album itself isnt as imidiately accesable as the previous 2 albums either, so all of these factors have a say in the way the sales are going to go.

It would help quite a bit if Magnificent is a succesful single and that has yet to be seen even if I think it is the most single worthy track on the album and one that should appeal to those that like U2s sound.

The tour should help more then any radio single though because I dont believe a lot of people listen to normal radio these days one way or another. Word of mouth helps most.

 

[mikeuk]

What's with the negativity? Do you want it to fail? If so, perhaps it's time you take a break from U2 and this forum. It strikes me as odd that a fan would want U2 to fail, even if you are not a fan of this album (I personally can't stop listening to it - which is something I haven't done since AB).

Also, I recall NO reports stating that NLOTH was to "save" the music industry. It was, however, expected that after the initial burst, NLOTH would remain a steady seller for a while. It's far too early to tell if that will happen, but note that ATYCLB spent a grand total of three weeks in the U.S. Top 10 (if I recall correctly). And yet, it's slow but steady pace of sales eventually led it to 4.2M copies sold. The current climate (both economic and music) will most likely preclude those numbers - after all, the top selling album in the U.S. last year didn't even reach 3M! But 2M may still be possible, and I feel that is a success.

Additionally, "Magnificent" was just released to radio. It's just now gaining some airplay time. It may or may not be a hit, but the fact that it charted in the Hot 100 last week gave NLOTH two Hot 100 hits - something that HTDAAB was unable to accomplish.

Lastly, even if this album reaches "Pop" type numbers, is that so bad? Again, given the economic and music climate of today's world, 1.5M copies is pretty good! U2 have nothing left to prove.

Well put Dr Who - spot on ! Mike

 

[Native_Son]

UK second week numbers: 44,261 (-72% from last week)

didnt see that drop coming. but even kelly clarkson had even less, coming off a huge single also! i think thats says a lot about album sales.

i still think this album not being so imidiate is definately hurting sales.
my dad - a casual U2 fan - listend to the album earlier and he was surprised that there were no stand out songs on it, 'its not their best by a long way'

the next single may be the most important of their career, if this fails to crack airplay, maybe radio will be more reluctant to pick up further singles on this album, and with a new album (despite what Bono may say) likely to be 4 years away, will they be given the same pre-release attention next time?

 

[roy]

my dad - a casual U2 fan - listend to the album earlier and he was surprised that there were no stand out songs on it, 'its not their best by a long way'

Does your Dad really think that?

 

[Irishteen]

My dad listened as well says No Line on the Horizon is the best song and that none of the songs have titles that stick in your head except "I'll go crazy if I don't go crazy tonight"

 

[MMP]

I know it's difficult! But I'm pretty sure it was Hits Daily Double who predicted U2 would be in the 150-160k range (and #2) and they are usually very accurate. Their initial data suggested 400-450k for NLOTH and U2 exceeded their expectations so there's no reason why we should think that 150-160 is inaccurate at this point.

Deep breath in....exhale...

I know... I meant that there always will be someone freaking out. As far as I'm concerned 160K second week isn't amazing, but it's not "OMG OH NOEZ" either.

 

[Irishteen]

I know... I meant that there always will be someone freaking out. As far as I'm concerned 160K second week isn't amazing, but it's not "OMG OH NOEZ" either.

But if predictions of 15k are right for next week, the band will be crying

 

[fedeu2]

without a hot single, u2 will be out of the top ten in the US in the next couple of weeks. magnificent isn't gonna cut it.

this album was supposed to "save" the music industry. in this regard, it's a flop already.

Is this troll behavior or what?

 

[fedeu2]

This album won't be reaching Pop type numbers though. If the returns continue in the current fashion, it'll have barely passed the 500K mark going into a third week where it might sell as low as 15K. Really, color me shocked if this album manages to succeed a million in Soundscan sales.

I think you´re confused here. Even though definite numbers for week 2 are not in already, hits has predicted about 160 K copies sold so that would bring the grand total to nearly 650 K by end of week two.
Thus, this album should surpass the 700 K mark by end of week three.
Sadly, unless Magnificent turns out to be a big hit, the album will struggle to get to 1 million copies sold. Certification, however, should come in a few weeks.

 

[Popmartijn]

Don't count out the effects of the tour though. The tour will keep U2 in the media, with a part of that attention resulting in sales of the record. Especially if the tour will be a big sellout and/or hugely spectacular.

 

[doctorwho]

:i still think this album not being so imidiate is definately hurting sales.
my dad - a casual U2 fan - listend to the album earlier and he was surprised that there were no stand out songs on it, 'its not their best by a long way'

When your dad first listened to TUF or TJT, did he feel that way? Other than "Pride" there were no songs that just leapt out as huge hits on either album. Both were more atmospheric albums.

But the albums became hits for a number of reasons. One reason is that people actually listened to albums back then. Even Howard Stern - not that big of a U2 fan (if at all) - said he really enjoyed hearing all of JT.

NLOTH is similar. It's not an album where you play one or two of your favorite songs, then put away. It's a true album.

So your father, like many others, needs to stop and really listen. And not just once, but maybe 3x. I wasn't that impressed my first time either - now I can't stop listening. This is rare. For U2's recent output (from '97 on), I loved a few songs instantly, then the albums faded. In contrast, NLOTH was not an instant love, but now I adore it. Haven't felt this way since "Zooropa".

I don't know if the world can handle an actual album right now. Our attentions are focused on the immediate. Still, as more songs become singles (and slowly grow on the charts) and as the tour starts, the album will remain a slow, but steady seller in the U.K. and the U.S. And that's all that was really predicted for this album.

 

[doctorwho]

Why would it drop from 150kish to 15k?

He might have been thinking of U.K. sales (where 15K might occur in the third week - although I think a more reasonable 50% drop is to be expected).

 

[CosmoKramer]

When your dad first listened to TUF or TJT, did he feel that way? Other than "Pride" there were no songs that just leapt out as huge hits on either album. Both were more atmospheric albums.

But the albums became hits for a number of reasons. One reason is that people actually listened to albums back then. Even Howard Stern - not that big of a U2 fan (if at all) - said he really enjoyed hearing all of JT.

NLOTH is similar. It's not an album where you play one or two of your favorite songs, then put away. It's a true album.

So your father, like many others, needs to stop and really listen. And not just once, but maybe 3x. I wasn't that impressed my first time either - now I can't stop listening. This is rare. For U2's recent output (from '97 on), I loved a few songs instantly, then the albums faded. In contrast, NLOTH was not an instant love, but now I adore it. Haven't felt this way since "Zooropa".

I don't know if the world can handle an actual album right now. Our attentions are focused on the immediate. Still, as more songs become singles (and slowly grow on the charts) and as the tour starts, the album will remain a slow, but steady seller in the U.K. and the U.S. And that's all that was really predicted for this album.

Good point with UF...other than Pride, there are no "immediate" songs. Bad, A Sort of Homecoming, The Unforgettable Fire, Promenade, Indian Summer Sky are all great songs but it took me awhile to "get" them. In fact, NLOTH’s “Bad’” is Moment of Surrender (in that it might take several listens before you realize just how great it is).

 

[cjboog]

HITS update.

56.9% in...

Kelly Clarkson 133,000
The Dream 98,000
U2 60,000
J. Holiday 39,000
Taylor Swift 37,000

 

[Yahweh]

Looks like U2 will sell about 150K this week in the US unless something major changes which im sure some people will consider a disappointment.

 

[cjboog]

Well my personal theory is similar to Doctorwho. I really think that Magnificent isn't going to provide a huge boost in the US, but it's going to keep the album sales going for a while so the album doesn't just melt away completely. It should be a pretty dang successful song in several radio formats. It might also benefit from some video airplay when a video is released. And I agree that this album will hang around for a while like ATYCLB did, although obviously not selling as much. I just don't think we are going to keep seeing these huge drops. It's U2. It's getting some radio airplay. It's getting media attention. It's bound to get good word of mouth. It's being sold at Starbucks. There's a massive stadium tour coming up. There are 3 singles left to go. It's got a couple grammys in the bag (Magnificent for Song or Rock Song of the Year anyone?). This is album is not just going to fade away with 70% drops week after week.

I really think that by this time next year NLOTH will have sold roughly 1.5 million in the US and then sometime not too long after that it will be certified 2x platinum which is very respectable in this environment.

But only time will tell...

 

[BigMacPhisto]

My dad listened as well says No Line on the Horizon is the best song and that none of the songs have titles that stick in your head except "I'll go crazy if I don't go crazy tonight"

Um, that was my initial impression as well, and in fact, what I still believe. Anybody that doesn't like that poppy "Stuck In A Moment" U2 was bound to dislike "Crazy"...upon first listen, I absolutely adored it (ATYCLB is one of my favorite ever albums) and also cringed knowing that the obvious suspects here would dislike it simply because they were predisposed to dislike it.

But, anyway, it's the only track on the album that's close to a classic. But, it's still no classic. U2 have made a pretty good album, slightly better than the last. However, it sorely lacks any track that can become a major hit or a classic U2 anthem for anybody but the hardcore. That's exactly why I think it will keep tumbling week after week...there's nothing on that album to give it much buoyancy.

 

[cjboog]

But, anyway, it's the only track on the album that's close to a classic.

Uhhh.

Magnificent?
Breathe?
Moment of Surrender?

Those are all instant U2 classics for me

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

I really think that by this time next year NLOTH will have sold roughly 1.5 million in the US and then sometime not too long after that it will be certified 2x platinum which is very respectable in this environment.

But only time will tell...

Selling 2 million in this environment is far from just being respectable, thats the definition of burning HOT! There were only 4 albums in 2008 that were able to sell at least 2 million copies!

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

This album won't be reaching Pop type numbers though. If the returns continue in the current fashion, it'll have barely passed the 500K mark going into a third week where it might sell as low as 15K. Really, color me shocked if this album manages to succeed a million in Soundscan sales.

Even if that was the case, do you realize that selling 1 million copies was enough for album to crack the top 25 for the year in 2008? If the album sales what POP did in 1997, it will be in either the top 10 or even top 5 for the year. There were only four albums in 2008 that sold 2 million copies or more in 2008.

This is a different sales environment. The top 10 selling albums of 2008 combined sold 80% less than the top 10 selling albums of the year 2000.

In this environment, selling 500,000 copies is the same as selling 1.5 million to 2 million copies back in 2000.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

Uhhh.

Magnificent?
Breathe?
Moment of Surrender?

Those are all instant U2 classics for me

There are plenty of great songs in this album...but for me and some other people I know in the real world, this album doesn't have a "Beautiful Day" or "City of Blinding Lights" or "Gloria" or "Pride" or even "All Because Of You"...I wouldn't put any of these songs from NLOTH in my Top 50 from this band, and yes, might even enjoy a U2360 show better if it featured none of them (and all from my Top 50)...

 

[roy]

There are plenty of great songs in this album...but for me and some other people I know in the real world, this album doesn't have a "Beautiful Day" or "City of Blinding Lights" or "Gloria" or "Pride" or even "All Because Of You"...I wouldn't put any of these songs from NLOTH in my Top 50 from this band, and yes, might even enjoy a U2360 show better if it featured none of them (and all from my Top 50)...

Is it ok for me to say that I know quite a few people in the 'real world' who think that there are plenty of classic U2 songs on this album. I've heard people in the 'real world' describe the following as classics:

NLOTH
Magnificent
MOS
US
Breathe

Me personally, I would add White as Snow to that list.

 

[KUEFC09U2]

So basically you have just come to this part of the forum to start stating your opinion on what you dont like on the album etc etc?

and imo i enjoyed the live versions of breathe more than i enjoyed any live version of Beautiful Day.

 

[u2search]

HITS update.

56.9% in...

Kelly Clarkson 133,000
The Dream 98,000
U2 60,000
J. Holiday 39,000
Taylor Swift 37,000

That is relatively better than in week 1. Makes sense, many fans bought on day 1.

 

[mosquito]

UK third week midweeks-Monday update.

1 Ronan Keating
2 Annie Lennox
3 Kings Of Leon
4 U2
5 Pete Doherty

 

[KUEFC09U2]

Any ideas on what numbers?, gotta be honest i would actually be dissapointed if KOL managed to overtake them.

I can understand why Ronan Keating and Annie Lennox are up there though, with it being mothers day etc etc,

and wow no sign of Kelly Clarkson? now that would be a "flop",

But still very early days yet.

 

[Aardvark747]

And Ronan?! Thought there might be some album on the way following the "All for charity mate" Kilamanjaro climb...

 

[KUEFC09U2]

And Ronan?! Thought there might be some album on the way following the "All for charity mate" Kilamanjaro climb...

Mothers day, people like ronan keating are a dead cert for #1 if they release an album during mothers day, also annie lennox would be up there,

i keep forgetting KOL won album of the year at the brits, that probably whats keeping that going, the awards are maybe to far away to help NLOTH though,

 

[doctorwho]

I came across an article about people who were "happy" to have been fired. This is the comment about the band Wilco:

In 2000 and 2001, the Chicago rock band Wilco recorded an artsy album that departed from the band’s previous folk-inflected work. The record, Yankee Hotel Foxtrot, didn’t sound quite like what the band’s label, Reprise Records, was hoping for. Although the album isn’t aggressively grating, it wasn’t full of the radio-friendly rock that the cash-strapped imprint needed to churn out a few hit singles. Reprise refused to release the album and dropped Wilco from its roster. As part of their severance from the label, the band got to take the master tapes of the record with them.

Without a label to release the album, Wilco decided to simply stream it on their website for free. As critical buzz for the record built, Nonesuch Records (like Reprise, a subsidiary of Warner Brothers) bought Yankee Hotel Foxtrot and gave it a commercial release in 2002. The record was a critical smash; it topped many critics’ best-albums list for the year. It was also a commercial success, selling close to 600,000 copies.

I quoted this because, per that last sentence, the album was a "commercial success" selling CLOSE to 600K albums.

NLOTH will have sold more than that in two weeks. Yet, some "fans" are claiming how much of a flop NLOTH is. Yet when Wilco sells shy of 600K, it's a commercial success.

Are people setting the bar way too high for U2? Remeber, per Billboard, even JT was the third best selling album of 1987 (admittedly, using the "old" system). Or are people not fully realizing that we are in a different market? Sure, one or two albums may really break out (I expect the upcoming Eminem album to be one), but those are true exceptions. Other top sellers will be between 1-2.5M (in the U.S.). Until something changes, gone are the days of an album going 2x Platinum in weeks (like HTDAAB did).