NLOTH sales predictions

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fedeu2 said:
You´re wrong. Rolling Stone magazine gave the album 5 stars and dubbed it a masterpiece. Nearly all the reviews I´ve read (and I´ve read a lot) gave the album at least 4 stars. This is indeed a great work. Maybe it´s too early to give a definite opinion but when all is said and done I guess it will make my Top 3, right up there with JT and AB.
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Rolling Stone's review was great. But overall, the reviews are on par with or lower than those of HTDAAB. It will be interesting to see what the Meta Critic rating is for this album. HTDAAB got 79/100 and I suspect this album may be lower than that from what I have read. Yes, it's getting some great reviews from RS and Q magazine, but there have also been quite a few 3/5 or 3.5/5 ratings. They have been good, but the album is certainly not getting universal acclaim from critics overall.

I have also read a lot of the reaction from PEOPLE online, people posting on Amazon.com, Rolling Stone.com, RateYourMusic.com, SputnikMusic.com, etc and there's no doubt that so far the reaction has been mixed.

Right now on Sputnik, the album has an average rating of 3.2/5 and on RateYourMusic it has a 2.84/5. Obviously there are a lot of paranoid, crazed U2 haters out there and I fully expect these ratings to go UP, but I have read a lot of comments as well from longtime fans who just aren't getting in to this album. It's been divisive online so far.

So. I'm holding out for the album to be released before I listen to it so I can't really speak to how "accessible" it is. I will probably end up revising my estimates lower because the professional reviews have not equaled the enthusiasm on this site, and most people say that there are few radio friendly songs on the CD.
 
Only the "big" reviews matter anyway... these random websites and blogs have little effect I think.

Metacritic uses a weighting system correct?
 
cjboog said:
Rolling Stone's review was great. But overall, the reviews are on par with or lower than those of HTDAAB. It will be interesting to see what the Meta Critic rating is for this album. HTDAAB got 79/100 and I suspect this album may be lower than that from what I have read. Yes, it's getting some great reviews from RS and Q magazine, but there have also been quite a few 3/5 or 3.5/5 ratings. They have been good, but the album is certainly not getting universal acclaim from critics overall.

I have also read a lot of the reaction from PEOPLE online, people posting on Amazon.com, Rolling Stone.com, RateYourMusic.com, SputnikMusic.com, etc and there's no doubt that so far the reaction has been mixed.

Right now on Sputnik, the album has an average rating of 3.2/5 and on RateYourMusic it has a 2.84/5. Obviously there are a lot of paranoid, crazed U2 haters out there and I fully expect these ratings to go UP, but I have read a lot of comments as well from longtime fans who just aren't getting in to this album. It's been divisive online so far.

So. I'm holding out for the album to be released before I listen to it so I can't really speak to how "accessible" it is. I will probably end up revising my estimates lower because the professional reviews have not equaled the enthusiasm on this site, and most people say that there are few radio friendly songs on the CD.
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As far as Uk critics are concerned, the lowest rating I saw was 3 stars or 3 stars and a half. I agree that this album won´t appeal to the US (both critics and public) the same way the last two albums did.
Incidentally, three different reviews were published yesterday in US newspapers and they gave the album 3 stars on average. The funny thing is one would have expected a high rating from reading the contents of the articles. I mean, they were quite positive.
 
fedeu2 said:
As far as Uk critics are concerned, the lowest rating I saw was 3 stars or 3 stars and a half. I agree that this album won´t appeal to the US (both critics and public) the same way the last two albums did.
Incidentally, three different reviews were published yesterday in US newspapers and they gave the album 3 stars on average. The funny thing is one would have expected a high rating from reading the contents of the articles. I mean, they were quite positive.
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But could those reviews be based on a 4 star system instead of 5? 3 stars out of 4 is very good.
 
doctorwho said:
But could those reviews be based on a 4 star system instead of 5? 3 stars out of 4 is very good.
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Oops! Maybe you´re right. For some reason I always take for granted it´s a 5 star system.
Anyhow, I´ve just found out that Q magazine has also given the album 5 stars and both Mojo and Uncut gave it 4 stars which I think it´s great specially coming from Mojo. Q magazine even said NLOTH is perhaps their best album ever.

I really do believe that album sales will only be huge provided the majority of critic reviews are oustanding. After all, it´s no coincidence that the two most successful albums in terms of sales (I´m not counting the Best of 80-90 here since it´s no new material) are also the best ones.
 
doctorwho said:
Good points.

Plus, remember, "masterpieces" are rarely recognized as being such at the time. And a lot of crap can sell boatloads. A "masterpiece" hardly means people will rush out to get it.

In 2000, I was all about ATYCLB doing well. Now, I'll be happy if U2 see "Zooropa" type numbers. Given illegal downloads, U2's age, the lack of super catchy songs, the fact that this is a true "album", etc., I don't think U2 will sell 4M copies of NLOTH in the U.S. (like ATYCLB did). But hopefully 2X Platinum in the U.S. and maybe 5-6M more worldwide.

Of course, would love more!
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Agree ALL this - but if magnificent was released asap we could see better numbers maybe Mike
 
personally i think its too early for a new single. in the uk at least boots is still on high rotation on bbc radio, and to release a new single would either knock boots off prematurely or, delay the new singles airplay.

i was thinking about the japan release, hopefully we will see it chart on mediatraffic tomorrow, HTDAAB debuted with about 39k from Japan alone. that was #4 in japan i think.
 
Native_Son said:
personally i think its too early for a new single. in the uk at least boots is still on high rotation on bbc radio, and to release a new single would either knock boots off prematurely or, delay the new singles airplay.

i was thinking about the japan release, hopefully we will see it chart on mediatraffic tomorrow, HTDAAB debuted with about 39k from Japan alone. that was #4 in japan i think.
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It was actually about 84k that HTDAAB sold in its first week in Japan. Ended up selling about 270k there.
 
The first time NLOTH will show up in the Mediatraffic chart is on the chart that will be on the site March 5. That will have Japan sales, Australian sales (it was released on the last day of the Aus chart week) and any other places that registered early sales.
 
First Week

US: 520,000
World: 1,400,000

First Year

US: 1,900,000
World: 6,200,000
 
According to musicweek :
U2 are cashing in on the huge pre-release exposure for their new album, with No Line On The Horizon outselling the rest of the Top 10 sellers combined on its first day on sale.

The Mercury-issued album sold 64,698 copies on Monday, according to retail reports, around four times as many units as its nearest challenger, The Prodigy’s Invaders Must Die. The Prodigy album debuted at number one last Sunday to give Cooking Vinyl its first ever chart-topping album.

U2’s new album, which was backed by the band occupying a series of promotional slots across the BBC last Friday, could be joined in the 20 this coming weekend by their 2006 retrospective U218 Singles. The best of, whose sales are up around 140% on the week, was ranked 39th on last Sunday’s chart, but is poised for a double-digit climb on the forthcoming countdown.
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64,698 in one day...very good!!!!And u218 in top 20...
I think 200.000 in a week...do you think more?
(bomb sold 200k in the first week)
 
i was actually expecting 100k first day and 225k by end of week. bomb did 200k in first week, (bear in mind that was end of november!, and 4 years ago and with a big hit single). only 4 times more than prodigy, i would have thought it would be 10 times ahead of that rubbish. i guess saturdays the main retain day though. does the ~65k on day one include all the months of preorders on amazon etc?

great news for 18!!
 
Given the current climate for CD sales, this is a very good result so far. Someone said something about Saturday being a big day for sales, I've heard this before, will be interesting to see the final results. I will be happy with anything over 150k.
Anyway, here's a comparison of first week UK sales from other U2 albums...

HTDAAB - 201k
ATYCLB - 164k
Pop - 152k
Best of 80-90 - 140k
 
Yep, 80's Best Of actually did 144k, but anyway i think No Line will end on 140k, good in todays climate but not great by U2's standard. (since Joshua Tree only Zooropa, most probably, was as low as ~140k, ex. the other 2 best ofs).
 
Just saw this. Apparently from hitsdailydouble.com:

U2 BOOTS UP THE CHART
New Interscope Album To Bow at #1, 400-450k in Sales
March 4, 2009

All those TV appearances, all those award show performances, all those online retail deals paid off for U2, whose Interscope album, No Line on the Horizon, will debut at #1 next week, with a respectable, if not overwhelming, total between 400-450k.

That’s based on one-day sales reports from those retailers who still have their doors open, as well as the usual online suspects.

Credit a marketing component involving Starbucks and $3.99 downloads at AmazonMP3.com for helping the iconic Irish rockers, who now have their own street with their names on it in Manhattan, with the year’s best sales debut. Springsteen was the previous record-holder, with sales of 211k for his Working on a Dream album, which came out last month.

By comparison, U2’s last album, How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb, which came out in Nov. 2004, admittedly during the Q4 rush, sold 840k its first week out.
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the new album will be a very weak seller. it won't outsell POP. that's my prediction. The thing about the classic U2 sound is that it's only for the fans. No new fans will get turned on to this.
 
GibsonExplorer said:
the new album will be a very weak seller. it won't outsell POP. that's my prediction. The thing about the classic U2 sound is that it's only for the fans. No new fans will get turned on to this.
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Well the fact that they are released at identical times of the year will provide a fair comparison, but just for the record, by the end of 1997 Pop sold 1.3 million in the US, and 5.5 million worldwide.
I know for a fact that NLOTH will beat the US figure for Pop, but worldwide sales are going to be tough to predict until we see how the album is holding up after a few weeks.
 
ChargedVT said:
Well the fact that they are released at identical times of the year will provide a fair comparison, but just for the record, by the end of 1997 Pop sold 1.3 million in the US, and 5.5 million worldwide.
I know for a fact that NLOTH will beat the US figure for Pop, but worldwide sales are going to be tough to predict until we see how the album is holding up after a few weeks.
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hey, a fellow South Aussie:wave:

Those who are doubting, listen to the album, its brilliant.

It's Week 1 sales may not start off as strong as Bomb, different time of the year, but the figures will be good nonetheless.

Put out a few key tracks which will likely be bigger hit singles than Boots. Magnificent, Breathe, Crazy Tonight and the album will have legs and staying power.

Complement that with a massive ZooTV type world tour from the sounds of it, and I'm confident despite the worldwide drop in CD sales this album has the potential to outsell Bomb.

A year later put out a companion CD 'Songs of Ascent' and you have a pretty exciting 2 years of promotion.
 
Hi Sken, not enough of us South Aussies on here!

I was reading that the first day sales in the UK were wrong, and that the figure was actually 69,800. I heard it is on the BBC site or somewhere.
 
yes first day sales were 70,000

Do these include album downloads or is this just CD sales?
 
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