Bigger fish to fry than Eminem

[womanfish]

We've all been focused on Eminem being released the week before U2. But lets look at the rest of the competition - 3 of them in particular are VERY worrisome for U2 to make number 1. Here we go.

11/16 releases:
Clay Aiken - probably a big first week, but not a lot to worry about the next week.

Bon Jovi - uh, probably not

Destiny's Child - could be a problem with the huge rise of Beyonce these past couple years. but still think U2 has a good edge over them for the next week.

**Eminem - Major problem, this will probably come close or above U2 sales on the second week.

Michael Jackson - Not sure what this release is of, but shouldn't be that big of deal.

**The Beatles - This could be trouble. a few years back the Beatles 1 sold like crazy over the holidays. Could be a surprise HUGE seller.


now releases for 11/23 - the same week as U2

**Creed - While this is most likely a Best of, this could spell trouble. they opened last time with 887,000 in their first week. This is a potential inferiating kick in the crotch.

Gwen Stafani - A huge new single, and popular with young and old alike. Probably won't be an issue, but could be a surprise.

**Evanescence - I don't like this one bit. This was the biggest selling rock act of the last 2 years. Their last album sold 6 million and this could be a big one in the first week, definitely capable of reaching the half million mark like U2.

******* Norah Freakin Jones!! - Not sure what release this is?? Probably a holiday album since she currently still has 2 albums on the top 200 charts!! Last album opened up with over 1 MILLION the first week. This could be major holiday sales because middle aged people are looking for gifts and holiday listening. This is also quite worrisome.

This is gonna be really tough for U2. Never seen them go up against this much competition.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

The soundtrack to the video game Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas is also being released on November 23rd, ironicly by Interscope records

CD 1
1. The Theme From San Andreas
2. Rage Against The Machine - Killing In The Name
3. 2 Pac - I Don't Give A Fuck
4. James Brown - The Payback
5. Ronnie Hudson - West Coast Poplock
6. Guy - Groove Me
7. Eddie Money - Two Tickets To Paradise
8. Cypress Hill - How I Could Just Kill A Man
9. The Maytals - Pressure Drop
10. Slick Rick - Children's Story
11. Rick James - Cold Blooded
12. Raze - Break 4 Love

CD 2
1. Ohio Players - Funky Worm
2. Heart - Barracuda
3. Compton's Most Wanted - Hood Took Me Under
4. Lyn Collins - Think About It
5. Public Enemy - Rebel Without A Pause
6. Faith No More - Midlife Crisis
7. Bell Biv Devoe - Poison
8. Max Romeo & The Upsetters - Chase The Devil
9. Eric B & Rakim - I Know You Got Soul
10. Willie Nelson - Crazy
Bonus Track:
11. AFI - Head Like A Hole


... laugh all you want about the potential for a video game soundtrack to knock off the mighty U2... but this video game has sold close to 4.5 million copies in it's first week of release alone. if even a tiny percentage of the people who bought the game go and buy the soundtrack, it could make a serious dent on the Billboard charts.

 

[doctorwho]

The American Idol winner, Fantasia, also releases her first CD the same day as U2.

You may yawn at American Idol, but the past winners sold some big numbers their first week. Clay Aiken, while not a winner, has enjoyed the most success.

So Fantasia could also pose a threat.

U2 should have released the album earlier. The way things are shaping, they might sell 500,000 copies and only hit #5! LOL!

 

[bsp77]

The Nirvana box set as well. Anyone buying that will be short on funds.

 

[Axver]

You may yawn at American Idol, but the past winners sold some big numbers their first week. Clay Aiken, while not a winner, has enjoyed the most success.

He's releasing a Christmas album. Yeah, sure, that will crack the top ten. When the moon turns red over One Tree Hill!

He's not a worry for U2. He's had his fifteen seconds of fame and now it's about time for him to fade away and disappear into popstar oblivion.

I'm really not all too concerned about these other artists besides the Beatles. Is there much crossover between U2 fans and most listed there? I wouldn't say there is. U2's sales are pretty secure and Vertigo is doing amazing things. It's a tough week and I don't like it one bit, but I think they will crack the top three.

 

[STING2]

We've all been focused on Eminem being released the week before U2. But lets look at the rest of the competition - 3 of them in particular are VERY worrisome for U2 to make number 1. Here we go.

11/16 releases:
Clay Aiken - probably a big first week, but not a lot to worry about the next week.

Bon Jovi - uh, probably not

Destiny's Child - could be a problem with the huge rise of Beyonce these past couple years. but still think U2 has a good edge over them for the next week.

**Eminem - Major problem, this will probably come close or above U2 sales on the second week.

Michael Jackson - Not sure what this release is of, but shouldn't be that big of deal.

**The Beatles - This could be trouble. a few years back the Beatles 1 sold like crazy over the holidays. Could be a surprise HUGE seller.


now releases for 11/23 - the same week as U2

**Creed - While this is most likely a Best of, this could spell trouble. they opened last time with 887,000 in their first week. This is a potential inferiating kick in the crotch.

Gwen Stafani - A huge new single, and popular with young and old alike. Probably won't be an issue, but could be a surprise.

**Evanescence - I don't like this one bit. This was the biggest selling rock act of the last 2 years. Their last album sold 6 million and this could be a big one in the first week, definitely capable of reaching the half million mark like U2.

******* Norah Freakin Jones!! - Not sure what release this is?? Probably a holiday album since she currently still has 2 albums on the top 200 charts!! Last album opened up with over 1 MILLION the first week. This could be major holiday sales because middle aged people are looking for gifts and holiday listening. This is also quite worrisome.

This is gonna be really tough for U2. Never seen them go up against this much competition.

One might be concerned about Evanescence, but thats it. Evanescence will probably sell in the 200,000 to 300,000 range at most. Lets remember that Nirvana's Third studio album coming after NEVERMIND sold 186,000 copies it first week back in 1993. Its true you need to add about 1/3 to that number because soundscan at that point had only reached the 75% level in tracking all sales in the USA. So its more like 248,000. I don't think Evanescence is going to have a bigger first week for their second album as Nirvana did for their third album, both following massively successful albums.

 

[womanfish]

Evanescence will have bigger first week sales than Nirvana did. It's not a fair comparison. Evanescence are a pop-rock-wannabe alt-crossover into AC radio sort of band. They pretty much have extreme crossover, with modern rock, rock, top 40, Adult Contemporary, etc.... They top the charts on TRL for cryin out loud. Nirvana did not have this. They didn't put Rape Me into major rotation on the top 40 LOL. This band could easily sell half a million that first week, but i think it will hinge on whether they have a strong single going into it. I haven't heard anything yet, so that's good news.

 

[Popmartijn]

We've all been focused on Eminem being released the week before U2. But lets look at the rest of the competition - 3 of them in particular are VERY worrisome for U2 to make number 1. Here we go.

11/16 releases:
**The Beatles - This could be trouble. a few years back the Beatles 1 sold like crazy over the holidays. Could be a surprise HUGE seller.

This probably would not be any trouble. The Beatles are releasing their first 4 US albums. No rare songs on those, but the names, artwork and tracklistings were different on those than the UK albums. This will be a boxset (so you can't buy the albums separately, just all or nothing) and those never sell that much.

C ya!

Marty

 

[womanfish]

thanks Marty, that's a relief. Box sets and best ofs shouldn't be a big worry, usually modest first week numbers and more long term sales.

 

[AussieU2fanman]

If I have a belief in the common humanity of all human beings, people will buy U2 over this other crap.
IF I have a belief in humanity. IF!
Subject to change of course.

 

[niallyb]

the Norah Jones CD is a repackage of the current one with some extra bits. It will take her back into the top 10 but I dont see it sending the CD back to #1.

Creed have broken up so their CD shouldnt be a HUGE problem. It will sell well but it wont debut at #1. The rest of the band isnt talking to Scott Stapp so there's very little promotion that involves them.

No idea what the Beatles CD is but if its a major release I would expect the hype machine to be working hard by now if it was to be a big deal.

Clay Aiken's last full length CD sold well-ish but not enough to mark him as a serious problem.

Eminem, Destiny's Child and Evanescence are the real threats here. The first 2 have singles that are doing VERY well and the hype machine is in overdrive for both. It should be interesting............

 

[doctorwho]

He's releasing a Christmas album. Yeah, sure, that will crack the top ten. When the moon turns red over One Tree Hill!

He's not a worry for U2. He's had his fifteen seconds of fame and now it's about time for him to fade away and disappear into popstar oblivion.

I'm really not all too concerned about these other artists besides the Beatles. Is there much crossover between U2 fans and most listed there? I wouldn't say there is. U2's sales are pretty secure and Vertigo is doing amazing things. It's a tough week and I don't like it one bit, but I think they will crack the top three.

Reread what I wrote.

I said FANTASIA, not Aiken, is releasing an album the same day. She was the last American Idol winner. And based on the past, these American Idol kids have some big first weeks. The past 2 winners have had #1 debuts. Clay is also so popular that he hit #1 as well.

So while Clay's Christmas album may not be a threat to hit #1, I think Fantasia's album will add even more competition. It could be a HUGE week in CD sales! It'll be interesting to see.

 

[MacFly2]

Guys, I don't see Evanescence being that much of a BIG threat. It's a live album, so I can't see them selling more than 250k in one week. I'm thinking btwn 175K-200k, given the holiday week.
The biggest threat is Eminem, it all depends on how big the second week drop is...

 

[womanfish]

Guys, I don't see Evanescence being that much of a BIG threat. It's a live album, so I can't see them selling more than 250k in one week. I'm thinking btwn 175K-200k, given the holiday week.
The biggest threat is Eminem, it all depends on how big the second week drop is...

You're sure Evanescence is a live album? That's awesome. There's no way a live album by them is a threat. So now that The Beatles, Norah Jones, Evanescence, have been explained away, that leaves Creed, Destiny's Child and Eminem to worry about. Since Creeds is either Live or Best of, I am giving U2 the edge on this one, even though there are a lot of people with horrible musical taste that will go and buy this. Destiny's Child I think will have a hard time holding up enough numbers in their second week to beat U2. And as for Anastasia, we must remember one thing. She's a woman. The large sales of Clay Aiken albums came from hordes of teenage girls and strangely from middle aged women. Ech While she has her fans, her show was quite a while ago now and her fan base is very different. I don't give her much of a chance.

Ok, I'm feeling better. And making me feel even better are the so-far two HORRIBLE singles released by Eminem. Hoping this means that his album will have a larger percentage drop off in the second week because the die-hard fans will all buy in the first week, and if the album doesn't have the quality, or good singles, it will drop more quickly.

U2 have a chance. The only troubling things now are:
There are some major rock releases that could defer so-so fans of U2 to be diverted (Evanescence, Creed, Bon Jovi, The Beatles, even Gwen Stafani). There aren't any other Rap/Hip Hop albums other than D.C. and Eminem. So U2's normal buying public could be more fragmented.

Also, the still nagging question, which we won't know until the 23rd, Will SoundScan count the different editions of the album as different entries on the chart. This was my initial concern and seems to remain the biggest factor in whether they have a real shot at the top.

 

[Danospano]

I would only be disappointed if U2 didn't crack the Top 5. I'm guessing they'll continued their streak and debut at #3. behind Destiny's Child and Eminem. Fantasia may knock them down to #4.

 

[Theflyshades04]

Bon jovi is releasing a box set so it's not a big threat. Gwen has a hit single on TRL and all that, but promotion isnt that big. Eminem's Encore is the only threat I see. DC does have a hit with Lose my breath, but they just are not as big as they used to be. U2 have MAJOR promotion plus almost all positive reviews. It will for sure debut in the top 2. and Fanstasia is the worst american idol yet as far as airplay goes, so she won't be a worry at all.

 

[dopper]

Don't forget about Lil' Jon on Nov. 16.

 

[Theflyshades04]

ya know I bet people over at the Eminem forums and Gwen forums are saying the same thing about U2. That "U2 will prolly prevent her/him from number one". All in all it really doesnt matter chart postitions to me, it's knowing that U2 can blow ANY of them away live that makes me happy.

 

[desire25]

i dont know what you guys should worry about.. least of all sales?
we all know the album is good, the songs are fresh and exciting and so the band has all the aces up their sleeves. it's been a while since the band has come up with an album... 4 yrs? and they are sorely missed. their music is also sorely missed... so much for hip hop. with so much airplay devoted to this genre lately, and to some extent the songs are sounding monotonous
and left with little creativity (that's why they have to match it with
a lot of skin and sexy dancing), people will surely go back to real honest to goodness rock and roll that U2 represents.

 

[cseggleton]

I think if U2 does not debut at #1 the album will be good enough to where it will stay in the top ten for a long time and then with a boost from the Grammy's it will hit #1. They got quite a boost from the Grammy's last time around....who knows

 

[WHYWHY]

I think if U2 does not debut at #1 the album will be good enough to where it will stay in the top ten for a long time and then with a boost from the Grammy's it will hit #1. They got quite a boost from the Grammy's last time around....who knows

I believe that to be wishful thinking. I highly doubt that U2 could get to #1 from the grammies... maybe a week (possibly even 2 but doubtful) in the Top 10 IF they won all 3 grammies, but def not near the top. I reckon they might be able to squeeze out 4 weeks in the Top 10 before the tour.... and then well we'll if the album remains as strong as ATYCLB.

 

[doctorwho]

i dont know what you guys should worry about.. least of all sales?

I don't mean to zero in on you Desire25, but your comment serves as an excellent example.

Why do people come into the forum DEDICATED to charts and sales and then ask us why we are "worried" about them?

We aren't "worried" - we are discussing them. If U2 sells 100,000 copies or 1,000,000 copies the first week, this has little impact on us. We just like discussing charts and sales - that's why this forum is here. To chastise us is like going to the "Free Your Mind" forum and chastising them for discussing politics!!

 

[riteshbhatt1]

With Eminem's new album moved up to the 12th, it will make it much easier for U2 to debut at #1

 

[womanfish]

where did you hear this?

 

[biff]

Has that been confirmed?

 

[jimmyslapnutz]

Eminem is Elvis. I'd be worried...

 

[desire25]

whoa

I don't mean to zero in on you Desire25, but your comment serves as an excellent example.

Why do people come into the forum DEDICATED to charts and sales and then ask us why we are "worried" about them?

We aren't "worried" - we are discussing them. If U2 sells 100,000 copies or 1,000,000 copies the first week, this has little impact on us. We just like discussing charts and sales - that's why this forum is here. To chastise us is like going to the "Free Your Mind" forum and chastising them for discussing politics!!

now dont get me wrong. of course as a fan i am also interested in how the album is going to sell.
but mine is just an expression of confidence. that's my style. you dont have to take that literally. just an expression that as a fan, and knowing and having heard some of the songs and reading the reviews, it will make good sales wise. a good album will always sell whether you are a fan or not . sorry but that is how confident i can get with the band.
i know what this thread is all about. and i am not into chastising anyone. my oh my. never even thought about that.