I guess we are now haunted by the inconsequence of the past. We formed a monetary union, created some "stability criteria", ignored them and thought this could be sufficient. Of course, if it weren't for the financial crisis the problems in Greece and other countries wouldn't have gotten so troublesome. Yet. Because eventually, something would've triggered it, and no country showed any intentions on changing the tracks they were in before their weaknesses were exposed.
Now politicians try to still keep focussing on their national as well as personal interests (I don't see any of these politicians showing any willingness to do what's right even at the expense of their own position. Quite on the contrary), and they want to somehow make the Euro survive without hurting anyone too bad. Except for, well, the people in the countries which are now forced to make unprecedented cuts. And where will these cuts lead? Not out of debt, but into more debt. It's a vicious cycle, especially for Greece.
I would like if the populism were finally thrown overboard, the tabloid newspapers set on fire or whatever helps, and people in Greece, Germany, Ireland, Italy, France, Spain etc. realised that it's not the other country that is to blame, but everyone shoulders part of it. I don't see the unity of the people. They are getting riled up so easily, and old prejudices come to the fore so easily. That is quite frightening.
Personally, I very much like the Euro. I love to be able to cross the boarder and pay with the same currency. And I don't think it's inevitable for such a currency to fail. You just need to overcome your national focus and create a real monetary union. Maybe this will break apart, but at the moment no one can really say for sure. I don't think this will end in the collapse of the EU. The EMU was never made up of the entire EU, and it's not a necessity of the EU. Also, it wouldn't serve the interest of any of the member countries. If the EU collapses, then because we let the wrong parties into power. And if we do that, we shouldn't worry about the union as much as about our lives.
Even Belgium seems to be forming a new government now, after a record-long 16 months without one. Italy is pretty much divided economically, and people from the south and north don't really mix, but breaking apart into two countries? Well, never say never, but I don't see that, yet. Unfortunately, I don't think there's an active poster in this forum who is from Italy, as it would be interesting to hear from someone closer about such rumours.
Let's watch it by another prisma.
The Euro was imagined because many leaders thought that the only way to mantain the EU - specially after the german reunification - was to create a single monetary space. It was an exigence of countries like France.
I don't know if you remember but France and Germany were reticent to join it because they had such strong currencies. And Germany, at that time, refused joining a common currency because the Mark was already strong enough. So, Germany's demand to join the Euro was
«we'll only join it if the Euro is as strong as our Mark is».
This was the problem #1. 17 countries joining a currency that doesn't match the average of the weight of the economies of the 17 countries and, instead, having a currency that values much more than their economy does? No way, for example, the Euro was equivalent to 200 Escudos (old portuguese currency)?!
And since countries like the PIIGS cannot devalue the Euro artificially (that's what all economies do/did historically when they're in trouble, so exportations are privileged) the alternative is... Devalue the purchasing power and, most important, devalue the costs of labour! And Governemts take advantage of this situation and implement their own agenda, like the portuguese governement: "to waste" the Welfare State and the Health System the more they can, so people move to the private services and then you have, for instance, Health for rich and Health for poor. Join it, selling all public services (that MUST be public) electricity (and its network), the water company, collective transport companies, and others... And give it by a very low price to private hands.
Problem #2 was the Stability Criteria you reffered. Remember who were the first countries violationg the rules of the Stability and Growth Program (SGP)? I do and Kohl remembered it too a few months ago: it was France and Germany.
I'm not saying that the rules are not necessary, they are. The problem is that they're not rational. They're HIGHLY IRREALISTIC, totally forgetting that economy is not an exact science.
I remember when someone said, 10 years ago, that the Euro would not survive its first crises. Now I understand why. Because it was poorly designed, with unrealistic rules, it didn't preview scenaries of crisis (what country is gonna accomplish the "<60% of public debt" and the "<3% budget deficit" in times like this, for Christ's sake?!)...
Plus, do you remember what the European Comission (commanded by that portuguese a$$hole) and, specially, the ECB said when Lehman Bros went bankrupt and they understood a crisis was coming? Remember? I do.
They told the European States (specially those in the Euro) «Waste the money, run into debt the way you want, save your banks with that debt and don't let it fall, because the ECB will be there to crushion the fall». Remember these kind of affirmations back in 2008? I do. and now I know that it means. Now I know that the ECB is no Central Bank like the others are.
I start not to call "lunatic" to those who say that little by little (but quickly) Europe runs the danger to enter a new conflict again. Something that the EU was designed to avoid. Isn't it ironic?
To me, Europe has only two options.
1) The EU is desintegrated and countries get back to their own corners and wait until a conflict between some starts again;
2) EU countries have the balls to admit that they'll have to lose all soveraignty and start a process of a (without bullshit and national/umbilicus interests) real federalism.
I prefer option #2. The problem is: are countries really available to lose all soveraignty? Is the Netherlands, for example, willing to lose things that define its national identity? Other example: if there's a conflict or and invasion to Greece, or Slovenia, or Estonia... Does the finish, or the austrian or the spanish army feel they have to defend their own european compariots? Do they feel european enough to defend them? Do they feel they belong to the same federation? Since Europe's history proves that european people don't want to abdicate on their own national identities, my answer is "no, they're not will to do that".
And it is solidary.. My ass!
The Lisbon Treaty is a fraud because of all this.
So, the treaty doesn't preview the exit of a country from the Euro? Is this a prison? You can enter but you can't leave?!
Then, it comes option #3. Keep things as they are. To achieve successive Merkozy Franco-German summit put the other 25 countries aside their decisions, to keep on driving the whole Europe together, happily hand in hand, to the abyss, under egoistic/hurried/inconsequent policies.
Unfortunately, I think leaders are choosing option #3.
Above all this, I ask: what's the ECB for? What's the ECB for if the ECB is not allowed to borrow to the States, but it is allowed to inject money to the banks at the rate of 1% (now 1,25%) and only then the banks can borrow to the States with the criminal rates we all know?
Is it worth to have a common currency without a Central Bank with proper powers (as the Chinese Central, as the FED, as the English Central Bank), without real and official political union, withouth a real unique Government (not something commanded by the Merkozy Franco-German axis, not something as the pathetic European Comission)?
What's the Euro for if there's no common debt issuance (which is the euro-bonds that Germany runs from as if it was fire or a bomb)? It's ridiculous sharing a currency and not having common debt issuance!
Now it's Italy [I personally always thought that Spain would "go" before Italy... I was wrong, but it won't be long too]...
...How long until it's France to "fall"? Because that's the only way to end with this dictatorship of having countries commanded by the remote control of Central Europe.
How long until countries like France and Germany understand that, it doesn't matter if China and the US are now big markets for them, when Europe (still) is their biggest market by far and that they depend on european countries for import and export products?
How long until Europe realizes that the way we're going, not only we won't be able to compete with China/India, or with Brazil, or with the US, but we'll be easily surpassed by these potencies?