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Old 10-12-2008, 10:25 PM   #91
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Quote:
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I correctly sussed the oil price increase of earlier this year as a BUBBLE
It wasn't only oil prices that were a bubble - it was the entire economy that was a (credit-fueled) bubble. Oil demand dropped by a faster rate than was predicted by the IEA, as a result of credit contraction and high oil prices themselves. Continued deflation will be a bad sign for the economy. A lot of the current oil fields have a break even point of 60-70 a barrel, but new oil projects being planned have a higher break even point (over $100 a barrel). So prices can't stay low for too long, otherwise importers won't get the new oil.
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Old 10-12-2008, 10:34 PM   #92
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It wasn't only oil prices that were a bubble - it was the entire economy that was a (credit-fueled) bubble.
When did ya get it Ntalwar?
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Old 10-12-2008, 10:36 PM   #93
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Now, here I will be dangerous.

5 year's time, I predict the oil price per barrel in USD will be under its current level.
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Old 10-12-2008, 10:47 PM   #94
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But was oil really a bubble if the stock market has declined 40% in a year, while oil prices are at the level of a year ago?


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5 year's time, I predict the oil price per barrel in USD will be under its current level.
Which countries will ramp up production to accommodate that? We already know production and exports in Norway, UK, Venezuela, and Mexico are going off a cliff. I think we'll still break $100 this year.
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Old 10-14-2008, 11:47 AM   #95
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cause the republicans said theyre gonna start gettin more oil from themselves!! theyre not gonna depend on foreigners any mo, theyre gonna git dat shit from demSELVES! i heard palin say it herself! it all makes so much sense!
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Old 10-19-2008, 07:29 PM   #96
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Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
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Old 10-19-2008, 07:32 PM   #97
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I think the Goldman Sachs prediction is $200+ a barrel.

Here's hoping that financeguy is the one who's right!

I wuz wrong.

It will be lower.

The rest of youse were even more wrong, however.
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Old 10-19-2008, 08:40 PM   #98
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Still 2+ months to go in 2008. The reasons and events leading up to the the current and final price are much more difficult to predict than the price itself.
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Old 10-20-2008, 12:08 PM   #99
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I totally called this last week. I told my wife, "Watch what OPEC does. They will cut production to level out the price."
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Old 11-21-2008, 10:13 PM   #100
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$40 in sight, he he.
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Old 11-21-2008, 10:16 PM   #101
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And just in time for a December roadtrip
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Old 12-05-2008, 07:44 PM   #102
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$40 in sight, he he.
Almost there.

And peak oil is a scam. I think that's clear now.
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Old 12-05-2008, 08:55 PM   #103
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Fortunately I got out in August (in the 120s as posted earlier) and will get back in soon. Demand for all commodities really took a beating. I don't think peak oil is a scam at all, but rather the main reason for the current economic woes. The infinite growth model has run into the peak oil wall. The level of contango in oil futures is at a record - e.g. Dec 09 oil is $15 higher than today's price and Dec 11 oil is $30 above it.
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Old 12-05-2008, 09:03 PM   #104
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I don't think peak oil is a scam at all, but rather the main reason for the current economic woes. The infinite growth model has run into the peak oil wall.
I do not agree. Credit crunch started in September 2007, Northern Rock was the first domino to fall. Before that, back in early 2006, we had warnings that the Icelandic economy was heading for disaster. That's why I call Iceland the canary in the coalmine.

Every credit crunch leads to a recession. This is/was inevitable. Oil price is a non-issue in this.

In my opinion the summer '08 oil bubble was due to speculation, pure and simple. There were no sound supply/demand reasons to support the oil price at that level, in my view. I believe we have not heard the half of this, but the truth will out.

We are now at the market level.
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Old 12-05-2008, 09:07 PM   #105
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That's why I call Iceland the canary in the coalmine.
I thought you did that because it was the headline of a Guardian article.
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