Oil prices at year end 2008 - Page 6 - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Free Your Mind
Click Here to Login
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 09-13-2008, 11:06 AM   #76
Rock n' Roll Doggie
 
Se7en's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: all around in the dark - everywhere
Posts: 3,531
Local Time: 09:39 AM
guys, how can i make some money off of this situation?
__________________

__________________
Se7en is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-13-2008, 07:56 PM   #77
ONE
love, blood, life
 
financeguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ireland
Posts: 10,122
Local Time: 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Se7en View Post
guys, how can i make some money off of this situation?
I use financial spreadbetting ( Spread betting - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ) ,

but I don't know if it is legal in the US.
__________________

__________________
financeguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2008, 07:12 PM   #78
ONE
love, blood, life
 
financeguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ireland
Posts: 10,122
Local Time: 03:39 PM
Well, oil is now just above my 85-95 range, having traded in the early 90s at one point.

Let's see if it stays there until year end.
__________________
financeguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2008, 11:44 PM   #79
Rock n' Roll Doggie
VIP PASS
 
sue4u2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: hatching some plot, scheming some scheme
Posts: 6,628
Local Time: 09:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by melon View Post
Okay, which dumbass decided to put such a large percentage of the nation's oil refineries in a fucking hurricane zone?
Thank you..
I've always wondered this. You build the majority of the nations supply in not just a likely area of destruction, but a known area.. Then over decades don't change it...WTF.. it's incomprehensible.
But what isn't, now is
__________________
sue4u2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2008, 04:22 PM   #80
ONE
love, blood, life
 
melon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 11,781
Local Time: 09:39 AM
Speculation caused rise in oil, study says - Sep. 10, 2008

Quote:
Study blames speculation for oil's rise

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Speculation by large investors -- and not supply and demand for oil -- were a primary reason for the surge in oil prices during the first half of the year and the more recent price declines, an independent study concluded Wednesday.

The report by Masters Capital Management said investors poured $60 billion into oil futures markets during the first five months of the year as oil prices soared from $95 a barrel in January to $145 a barrel by July.

Since then, these investors have withdrawn $39 billion from those markets as prices have retreated dramatically, the report said. Oil traded at just under $102 a barrel Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"We have clear evidence the fund flow pushed prices up and the fund flow pushed prices down," said Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management, calling the amount of money moving into oil futures markets by large institutional investors in the early part of the year "way off the scale."

Masters said its analysis shows investors "began a massive stampede for the exits" on July 15 and that this caused the price decline.
__________________
melon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2008, 04:30 PM   #81
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 30,343
Local Time: 09:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntalwar View Post
I did not realize how much better we were doing here in the greater Philadelphia area than many places in the country.

I left home for vacation with gas prices at about $3.90 and returned about two weeks later to find them about $3.60. And they've just kept falling.
__________________
phillyfan26 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2008, 04:32 PM   #82
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid
 
ntalwar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 4,900
Local Time: 09:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by financeguy View Post
Well, oil is now just above my 85-95 range, having traded in the early 90s at one point.

Let's see if it stays there until year end.
Yeah, but look at what go it to that point - near financial armageddon .

I blame two or three factors for the dip to 90:
- 20-25% of US refining capacity went off line (and remains so) due to hurricanes. Refineries that are shut do not buy crude oil, and those that did could not receive it from tankers as ports are closed (or operating at reduced rates). The SPR released over a million barrels of oil. Tankers are waiting to unload their cargoes in the Gulf of Mexico. The Saudis also increased output starting in July (by half a million bpd or so).

- Fear of counterparty risk in futures, and mass liquidation by hedge funds and firms like Lehman and Merrill Lynch. Morgan Stanley is a big player in the physical oil market (they own storage tanks, etc.), and they unloaded physical oil to raise cash.

- The global economic slowdown has caused demand destruction.

We topped $100 today. If we go back to the 80s and low 90s, that could be a bad sign for the economy IMO.

Quote:
Originally Posted by phillyfan26 View Post
I did not realize how much better we were doing here in the greater Philadelphia area than many places in the country.
That's one of the benefits of having local refineries, and not being dependent on gasoline refined in Texas/ La.
__________________
ntalwar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2008, 04:36 PM   #83
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 30,343
Local Time: 09:39 AM
I just looked up some gas info on my town.

Our current average price is $3.62, with $3.51 the lowest price in the area.

The price this time a year ago was $2.70. That shocked me. I feel pleased that I can get gas at $3.65 right now.
__________________
phillyfan26 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2008, 02:36 PM   #84
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid
 
ntalwar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 4,900
Local Time: 09:39 AM
This is why I think the perception of the role of speculators (to the upside) is overblown for oil prices. The October oil contract hit $130 today - it expired today and speculators are not allowed to trade it on the final day (only physical producers and consumers can). The November contract (which has speculators) is around $20 below October. Normally, the price spread between months is very narrow ($1-2 max) Speculation can work both ways.

__________________
ntalwar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2008, 03:47 PM   #85
Rock n' Roll Doggie
VIP PASS
 
Vincent Vega's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Berlin
Posts: 6,615
Local Time: 03:39 PM
That's right, it works both ways. However, it also shows how much of an influence speculation nowadays has on the oil price and how speculation can make this essential good, as well as other even more important ones, way more expensive than it should be (though the green part of my heart can't really be opposed to that ).

I would say, in the case of food any speculation and derivatives trading should be prohibited, no matter how large the influence is. The trend is rather driving the price up than down, and that's utterly immoral considering how many people can't afford food even at regular prices.
__________________
Vincent Vega is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2008, 04:00 PM   #86
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid
 
ntalwar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 4,900
Local Time: 09:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincent Vega View Post
However, it also shows how much of an influence speculation nowadays has on the oil price and how speculation can make this essential good, as well as other even more important ones, way more expensive than it should be (though the green part of my heart can't really be opposed to that ).
Fundamentals of demand and supply win out in the end. This October oil contract was priced at $90 a barrel last week, and on the day of expiration (when it becomes a spot contract) it hit $130. Prices would be a lot more volatile without speculators in the market.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincent Vega View Post
I would say, in the case of food any speculation and derivatives trading should be prohibited, no matter how large the influence is. The trend is rather driving the price up than down, and that's utterly immoral considering how many people can't afford food even at regular prices.
Not necessarily. India banned futures trading on some essential food items, and prices rose. There was a supply disruption in some grains due to the drought earlier in the year and grain prices were sky-high. The drought situation improved, and grain prices plummeted.
__________________
ntalwar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2008, 07:06 PM   #87
Rock n' Roll Doggie
VIP PASS
 
Vincent Vega's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Berlin
Posts: 6,615
Local Time: 03:39 PM
Sure, prices still rise due to a variety of reasons. But if you have a shortage and then add speculation I doubt it would improve the situation, except maybe if speculators in futures got it totally wrong before.
Derivatives sure have the advantage of securing a farmer prices months before when one is willing to pay them and when without he might have lost a lot of money in classical trade. The question still remains: How (badly) are consumers especially in poor regions affected by speculation? For me, personally, anything that potentially artificially raises the price for food is not acceptable.
__________________
Vincent Vega is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2008, 09:05 PM   #88
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid
 
ntalwar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 4,900
Local Time: 09:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincent Vega View Post
The question still remains: How (badly) are consumers especially in poor regions affected by speculation? For me, personally, anything that potentially artificially raises the price for food is not acceptable.
Factoring in an ever-growing world population, supply is a much bigger problem than price. Even with high prices, the grain shortage was so severe that many traditional food exporters banned exports - India banned rice exports, Kazakhstan banned wheat exports, etc. Spot prices frequently far exceed futures prices.
__________________
ntalwar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2008, 09:41 PM   #89
ONE
love, blood, life
 
financeguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ireland
Posts: 10,122
Local Time: 03:39 PM
The financial experts over at the (shortly to be defunct) investment bank Goldman Sachs have now declared their new oil price estimate at 75 a barrel, instead of 110 (which replaced a previous, even higher, estimate.)

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide


I am just another gobshite with an internet connection, I correctly sussed the oil price increase of earlier this year as a BUBBLE, I assessed the year end price at 85-95, everyone said - "That's rubbish, it'll be way more". If anything I might have OVER-estimated.

These Goldman Sachs people are AMATEURS. They DESERVE to go down. And they will.
__________________
financeguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2008, 10:15 PM   #90
Rock n' Roll Doggie
VIP PASS
 
Vincent Vega's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Berlin
Posts: 6,615
Local Time: 03:39 PM
Isn't it rather strategy by banks and other financial institutes to make certain estimates since they know that people listen to them and they have already prepared for that?
I know that in the beginning of the year every financial institution, economic research institutes etc. all said something else, so that estimates varied between around $70 to more than $200.
__________________

__________________
Vincent Vega is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
oil prices

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:39 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com