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Old 10-25-2008, 03:54 AM   #136
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I don't care. All I know is petrol is cheaper.
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Old 10-25-2008, 05:48 AM   #137
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Originally Posted by dazzlingamy View Post
i have no idea what is going on with the financial market, because everything i hear just seems to be counterbalanced when i look at the currency market. 61 cents today. Its terribly depressing.
It's great for someone I know who gets a portion of his income from the US. Say he was due $1000 US now -- he would get $1610 AU. A few months ago when your dollar was really strong he wasn't getting much over $1000 to $1075 AU for that same amount.
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Old 10-25-2008, 06:22 AM   #138
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i just wished i bought more US dollars when i could have!
heres hoping it changes in the next couple of months!
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Old 10-25-2008, 11:26 AM   #139
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I don't care. All I know is petrol is cheaper.
Only until Nov. 4th.
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Old 10-25-2008, 12:05 PM   #140
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Only until Nov. 4th.
Gas prices are seasonal usually, and I think the OPEC cut of 1.5 million bpd will have more of an impact than the election (unless the US dollar keeps going up). Quite a few countries are experiencing a massive flight of capital, which limits their ability to purchase commodities on the international markets - especially among those with small foreign reserves. Another blog I read lists the following countries as being short on cash, bankrupt, or in need of an emergency loan/bailout: Denmark, Romania, Hungary, Ukraine, Belarus, Iceland, Argentina, Pakistan, Indonesia, Korea, Serbia, Spain, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Kazakhstan.
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Old 10-25-2008, 02:23 PM   #141
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Gas prices are seasonal usually, and I think the OPEC cut of 1.5 million bpd will have more of an impact than the election (unless the US dollar keeps going up). Quite a few countries are experiencing a massive flight of capital, which limits their ability to purchase commodities on the international markets - especially among those with small foreign reserves. Another blog I read lists the following countries as being short on cash, bankrupt, or in need of an emergency loan/bailout: Denmark, Romania, Hungary, Ukraine, Belarus, Iceland, Argentina, Pakistan, Indonesia, Korea, Serbia, Spain, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Kazakhstan.
If Denmark and Spain are on that list then Ireland should be too!
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Old 10-25-2008, 02:48 PM   #142
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I think the author referenced these articles:

Spain:

Castilian Crisis: Bleak Economic Outlook for Spain - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

Denmark:

Bloomberg.com: Europe
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Old 10-26-2008, 10:36 AM   #143
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Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown - Telegraph

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The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect.

They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles.

..

Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP – with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia – all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund.

Exposure is 50pc of GDP for Switzerland, 25pc for Sweden, 24pc for the UK, and 23pc for Spain. The US figure is just 4pc. America is the staid old lady in this drama.

Amazingly, Spanish banks alone have lent $316bn to Latin America, almost twice the lending by all US banks combined ($172bn) to what was once the US backyard. Hence the growing doubts about the health of Spain’s financial system – already under stress from its own property crash – as Argentina spirals towards another default, and Brazil’s currency, bonds and stocks all go into freefall.

It's not a good time to be in the €.
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Old 10-26-2008, 06:46 PM   #144
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before Götterdammerung struck Reykjavik.
How cool is that!? But correctly, it would be Götterdämmerung.

Nevertheless, the only good thing of the arcticle.
Sounds like I should exchange more money to the dollar before it turns around. It's already down to 1.25.
The fat years are over, as we say in German.
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Old 10-26-2008, 08:51 PM   #145
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So, even those European countries which didn't themselves have house price bubbles (like Austria) seem to have created problems for themselves by a splurge of dodgy foreign lending.

What a mess.

Spain seems to have both problems - deflating domestic housing market AND exposure to countries at a default risk.
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Old 10-26-2008, 09:02 PM   #146
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As soon as the derivative markets crash, we're done folks.
It will be global.
It is going to happen soon.

Bush, Greenspan, Paulson nor Obama will be able to help.

<>
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Old 10-26-2008, 09:47 PM   #147
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YouTube - Roubini:`Panic' May Force Market Shutdown P1
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Old 10-27-2008, 05:06 AM   #148
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As soon as the derivative markets crash, we're done folks.
It will be global.
It is going to happen soon.

Bush, Greenspan, Paulson nor Obama will be able to help.
<>
The credit default swaps are off-market (and between two parties), and are too varied to crash at once IMO - e.g. one might be for a default of Lehman (which requires paying up), and another may be default of a firm that has been rescued or of a country.

The G20 is meeting next month, to rewrite rules of modern capitalism. I doubt they will let entire large economies go belly up, just to honor side bets between banks/insurance companies.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={3E181142-7C7B-4512-98A8-FD5E3BFE253F}

"Sarkozy was the first to make a call for a new "Bretton Woods."
Last week, he told the European Parliament that the talks must aim to "overhaul capitalism," not by "questioning the idea of a market economy" but by implementing certain principles, including subjecting all financial institutions to regulation, ensuring bonuses don't provide incentives for undue risks and re-thinking the monetary system."
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Old 11-14-2008, 03:27 PM   #149
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YouTube - Real Estate Downfall
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Old 11-15-2008, 08:08 PM   #150
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The Worst Is Not Behind Us - Forbes.com

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--The U.S. will experience its most severe recession since World War II, much worse and longer and deeper than even the 1974-1975 and 1980-1982 recessions. The recession will continue until at least the end of 2009 for a cumulative gross domestic product drop of over 4%; the unemployment rate will likely reach 9%. The U.S. consumer is shopped-out, saving less and debt-burdened: This will be the worst consumer recession in decades.

Yahoo! Buzz--The prospect of a short and shallow six- to eight-month V-shaped recession is out of the window; a U-shaped 18- to 24-month recession is now a certainty, and the probability of a worse, multi-year L-shaped recession (as in Japan in the 1990s) is still small but rising. Even if the economy were to exit a recession by the end of 2009, the recovery could be so weak because of the impairment of the financial system and the credit mechanism that it may feel like a recession even if the economy is technically out of the recession.

--Obama will inherit an economic and financial mess worse than anything the U.S. has faced in decades: the most severe recession in 50 years; the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression; a ballooning fiscal deficit that may be as high as a trillion dollars in 2009 and 2010; a huge current account deficit; a financial system that is in a severe crisis and where deleveraging is still occurring at a very rapid pace, thus causing a worsening of the credit crunch; a household sector where millions of households are insolvent, into negative equity territory and on the verge of losing their homes; a serious risk of deflation as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets becomes deeper; the risk that we will end in a deflationary liquidity trap as the Fed is fast approaching the zero-bound constraint for the Fed funds rate; the risk of a severe debt deflation as the real value of nominal liabilities will rise, given price deflation, while the value of financial assets is still plunging.
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