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Hewson 10-26-2020 07:09 AM

US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell
 
8 Days to go.
Sphincter tightening time.

MrsSpringsteen 10-26-2020 07:12 AM

Who is worse at their job right now-Trump or Cam Newton. Discuss

I have to go with Trump still

Hewson 10-26-2020 07:18 AM

Who's a more capable back up? Pence or Stidham? Gonna have to give that one to Pence.

Hewson 10-26-2020 07:20 AM

Coronavirus even affecting Faux News:

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/5...er-coronavirus

Headache in a Suitcase 10-26-2020 07:24 AM

Doesn't look like Cam got the same steroids, that's for sure.

MrsSpringsteen 10-26-2020 07:44 AM

Trump was a complete man baby on 60 Minutes. That was all planned on his part.

Also Kayleigh McEnany giving Lesley Stahl the giant book allegedly containing Trump's health care plan. Empty, just like his brain.

MrsSpringsteen 10-26-2020 07:46 AM

Pence is attending the Senate vote on Amy Coney Barrett, in spite of close contact with his infected aides. Pro life super spreader!

MrsSpringsteen 10-26-2020 07:59 AM

I prefer a President who tweets months in advance about being prepared for a pandemic vs one who keeps repeating that it's going away and we're turning the corner when reality says otherwise. Let alone his conduct during this entire debacle.

Bloomberg

Biden’s Year-Old Pandemic Tweet Gets an Anniversary Boost
By Yueqi Yang

October 25, 2020, 1:53 PM EDT


Biden tweeted in 2019, ‘We are not prepared’ for an outbreak

A tweet sent by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden warning about a pandemic was trending on Twitter on Sunday, the one-year anniversary of the post.

“We are not prepared for a pandemic,” Biden tweeted on Oct. 25, 2019, saying the country needs leadership that “mobilizes the world to stop outbreaks before they reach our shores.”


At the time Biden was sharing an article by the Washington Post that said none of the 195 countries, including the U.S., is fully prepared for a pandemic, based on a report by D.C.-based nonprofit Nuclear Threat Initiative and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

LuckyNumber7 10-26-2020 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrsSpringsteen (Post 8346862)
Who is worse at their job right now-Trump or Cam Newton. Discuss



I have to go with Trump still



I know a couple of interferers who think Cam is in fact a top 5 or 10 QB.

womanfish 10-26-2020 10:40 AM

So Trafalgar has never released the crosstabs for their polling. It seems they accidentally released one yesterday, but promptly took it down. They were so bad, that The Economist, decided to drop them from their averages.

This morning, Biden has a national poll with him up 13 points. The average went up to 9.1. Then good ol' Rasmussen swoops in with a Trump +1. And the average went down to 8.7. sigh,

LemonMelon 10-26-2020 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 (Post 8346873)
I know a couple of interferers who think Cam is in fact a top 5 or 10 QB.

I know a couple interferers who think Trump is in fact a top 5 or 10 president.

Could also be the same guy with multiple accounts.

DaveC 10-26-2020 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 (Post 8346873)
I know a couple of interferers who think Cam is in fact a top 5 or 10 QB.

https://media.giphy.com/media/a6YHwnkn0ctOM/giphy.gif

phanan 10-26-2020 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by womanfish (Post 8346874)
So Trafalgar has never released the crosstabs for their polling. It seems they accidentally released one yesterday, but promptly took it down. They were so bad, that The Economist, decided to drop them from their averages.

This morning, Biden has a national poll with him up 13 points. The average went up to 9.1. Then good ol' Rasmussen swoops in with a Trump +1. And the average went down to 8.7. sigh,

Rasmussen is just as bad. Why do they continue to get referenced so much?

They should simply remove all outliers and stick with the good ones.

LemonMelon 10-26-2020 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phanan (Post 8346877)
Rasmussen is just as bad. Why do they continue to get referenced so much?

They should simply remove all outliers and stick with the good ones.

Gotta represent "both sides," right? Even if one side is complete and utter dogshit.

phanan 10-26-2020 11:56 AM

Right, just get rid of both extreme sides and stick with the legit ones.

Hewson 10-26-2020 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 (Post 8346873)
I know a couple of interferers who think Cam is in fact a top 5 or 10 QB.

He's no Josh "Don't Call Me Rosen" Allen, that's for sure.

LemonMelon 10-26-2020 11:59 AM


LuckyNumber7 10-26-2020 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hewson (Post 8346880)
He's no Josh "Don't Call Me Rosen" Allen, that's for sure.



Haha can’t tell if you’re serious or not ... it’s not week 9 yet but Josh Rosen looks better than Cam Newton.

Week 9.

womanfish 10-26-2020 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LemonMelon (Post 8346878)
Gotta represent "both sides," right? Even if one side is complete and utter dogshit.

Rasmussen is bad yes. And made worse because they poll so frequently (as does Trafalgar) that it can shake up the averages. But it's not as easy as throwing out outlying polls. CNN has been mostly outliers all year, sometimes way low and other times way high. the analysts say that this can be a sign of a good pollster, because they are trying to herd their numbers in to match the average.

What I think you are correct on, is that consistent outlier pollsters always breaking heavily one way should be looked at and possibly dropped.
Rasmussen I think is on to this, and its why we saw a Rasmussen +12 a month ago. I think they know that they can release some swinging the other way once in a while to keep themselves in the mix.

Either way, it may be helpful in the end. It keeps already nervous Dems on their toes, and wouldn't it be sweet to see Biden outperform the polls this time?

womanfish 10-26-2020 12:38 PM

Ok, so I mentioned TX and FL earlier about good signs and maybe some not so good. I'm going to break them up into two posts.

FL first. Well, this is where there are some shaky numbers, and of course it's FL, so the probability of it disappointing us is always somewhat high.

Dems lead in early mail in voting by around 450k a few days ago, but that lead has now shrunk to about 360k. That's a little troubling, knowing that ED voting will be heavier for Reps.

Also, The only one of FL's 33 counties w/ 100k+ registrants where registered Reps have turned out at a higher percentage than registered Dems so far is - Miami-Dade. So that is also not a great thing to see.

That said - silver linings
FL is a long-time mail in voting state. Republicans usually hold the early vote lead heading into election day. So the fact that Dems are 360k ahead right now is promising, but keep in mind that in this pandemic year, Dems are using mail in at a far higher rate than Reps. And many Reps may be showing up at a higher rate on ED because Dear Leader has told them to.

Second bit of good news. in FL, Youth vote is up! (as it is in many other important battleground states) Up 17% for 18-39 year olds in total. Up 14% for 18-29 who are probably Biden leaning by about 40%.

Third - The indy vote. If we go with what we have seen polling wise for them. They are leaning about 8-15 Biden depending on the state. If Biden gets 10% of the indy vote, it would put Dems ahead right now by over 500k in the ballot race.

Fourth - We don't know how many registered Reps are voting for Biden. I think we can safely say more R's are voting D this time, than D voting R, but that amount is not really known.

Fifth - Dave Wasserman has called Sumter County in FL, the canary in the coal mine for FL. It is where most of the The Villages community resides. Last time Trump won it by 39 points, with over 68% support. Wasserman says that he would need at least 67 to point to a win in FL.

Right now:

the party breakdown of the 60,984 Sumter voters who have cast ballots:

GOP: 57%
Dem: 26%
NPA/other: 17%

And, the party breakdown of the 44,628 Sumter RVs who *haven't* yet cast ballots:

GOP: 56%
Dem: 20%
NPA/other: 24%

Dave's analysis - If the first batch of early votes reported is >75k and Trump is only taking ~61%, he'd have a hard time getting to 67% w/ election day votes, imo.
I think we have to take into consideration the Ind. Vote again here. If it’s a 10 point Biden advantage, that would currently put the numbers at:
GOP: 63.8%
Dem: 36.2%
And, the party breakdown of the 44,628 Sumter RVs who *haven't* yet cast ballots:
GOP: 65.6%
Dem: 34.4%
If this is where the vote falls in the end. Then it’s reassuring or Biden.

Also, having lived in FL for 12 years, I know that Pinellas co. where I lived, is a bit of a bellweather county for how FL will go. Pinellas went for Trump by the exact amount that Trump won FL in 2016. And Pinellas was 5 points Obama in 2012, when he won by just over 1 point. (also went for Obama in 08)
I think if you see Biden up in Pinellas by more than 3 points, hopefully more, and you see Trump falling short (66% or below) in a dark red county like Sumter. Biden can pull it off.

So all in all, there are signs pointing for a very close FL race, with, IMO, still the slight edge to Biden. But FL gonna FL. So I just pray they don’t disappoint us as they have so many other times.


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