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LuckyNumber7 03-08-2020 12:31 PM

US Politics XXI: Old Man 3-Way
 
The numbers indicate two will not survive.

womanfish 03-08-2020 01:16 PM

Just some poling and pontification from data wonks to sort of get a feel of where the race stands today. Still can't believe we don't have more polling of these upcoming states.


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...49989388988417

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/...06359087169536

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...48470262476806

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/...51404529287168

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...19021741068288

I think this last one is interesting and accurate in trying to make sense of Sanders clear faltering in "white working class" support.
Seeing the huge drops in OK, Maine, MN, hell, Mass, and looking like MO.

There seems to be a choice that happened in 2016. A subset of white working class supported Bernie but were on the edge with Trump. They are now with Trump, and the other subset was the suburban white, moderate Repubs that voted for Rubio or Kasich, and they have no political home because of Trump. They are now turning to Biden. Along with a whole group of voters it seemed that just plain hated Hillary Clinton, but like Biden.

deep 03-08-2020 01:18 PM

When I started posting in here again awhile back, one of the first posts I wrote was that Kamala Harris would be the VP pick for the Dem nominee,
It won't be Demmings, Amy K, Warren, Stacey A.


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...esidential-bid

LuckyNumber7 03-08-2020 01:19 PM

That’s a very truthful point about the Trump defectors. But they’re the ones who could be won back over in the general.

womanfish 03-08-2020 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 (Post 8325792)
That’s a very truthful point about the Trump defectors. But they’re the ones who could be won back over in the general.

True. But this time, while both Sanders and Biden have the chance to win them back, I would note that from what we have seen in the primaries that Joe can definitely lay claim to being the stronger one on that front.

If it's a choice between Sanders and Trump, they will most likely stick with their guy. Biden v Trump, Biden (not being Hillary) will have a better shot at pulling them.

LuckyNumber7 03-08-2020 01:52 PM

Not really sure why you said that last statement. A core piece of Trumpism is the anti-establishment and re-establishment allure. Biden doesn’t offer that. I would agree that old-white-man is also a core piece of Trumpism, which Biden very well overs more than Sanders does (Sanders being a Jewish communist blah blah blah makes him a bit “worldly”).

At the end of the day, what we would need to see is statistics on repeat voters (surprised that’s not a more commonly themed set of questions at exits). I suppose it’s very hard to capture who votes in the 2016 DPs and did not vote in 2020.

DaveC 03-08-2020 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by womanfish (Post 8325790)
I think this last one is interesting and accurate in trying to make sense of Sanders clear faltering in "white working class" support.
Seeing the huge drops in OK, Maine, MN, hell, Mass, and looking like MO.

how many delegates does hell send to the convention?

Hewson 03-08-2020 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davec (Post 8325797)
how many delegates does hell send to the convention?

666

womanfish 03-08-2020 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 (Post 8325796)
Not really sure why you said that last statement. A core piece of Trumpism is the anti-establishment and re-establishment allure. Biden doesn’t offer that. I would agree that old-white-man is also a core piece of Trumpism, which Biden very well overs more than Sanders does (Sanders being a Jewish communist blah blah blah makes him a bit “worldly”).

At the end of the day, what we would need to see is statistics on repeat voters (surprised that’s not a more commonly themed set of questions at exits). I suppose it’s very hard to capture who votes in the 2016 DPs and did not vote in 2020.

Yeah, I may be overstating it. I am just looking at the primary voter info that we have. For example, in MN. In 2016, Sanders won white with no college degree by 15 points over Clinton. This time he lost them by 12 points to Biden.
If MO numbers are any indicator, Sanders tied Clinton in 2016 overall. Avg of polls have Biden +13. This could be for a number of reasons. But I'm not doubting that white working class voters aren't at least part of it.

Again, probably ahead of myself to extrapolate that to the General with Trump. But saying that it may lean Biden a bit.

womanfish 03-08-2020 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deep (Post 8325791)
When I started posting in here again awhile back, one of the first posts I wrote was that Kamala Harris would be the VP pick for the Dem nominee,
It won't be Demmings, Amy K, Warren, Stacey A.


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...esidential-bid

I'm not sure if it won't be any of those you named They all would be great choices, except I think Amy should probably be passed on, just because I think she would be the one to bring the least stabalization to the Dem party as a whole to go against Trump.

I think those others are clearly in the running. Demings, AA, female from the biggest swing state in the country (second biggest if we count TX), and Abrams, AA female, from the 4th biggest swing state (if we count TX)

Harris is great, but from California, that's definitely a strike against her.

Headache in a Suitcase 03-08-2020 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveC (Post 8325797)
how many delegates does hell send to the convention?

https://www.270towin.com/2020-democr...jersey-primary

Looks like 147

Headache in a Suitcase 03-08-2020 03:12 PM

There's also a very simple explanation as to why Sanders' support is lower this time around.

It appears, and hear me out on this one, that a lot of people don't like Hillary Clinton.

Bluer White 03-08-2020 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by womanfish (Post 8325800)
Harris is great, but from California, that's definitely a strike against her.

What makes Senator Harris great?

MrsSpringsteen 03-08-2020 07:03 PM

60 Minutes has an interview coming up with Fiona Hill

BEAL 03-08-2020 07:59 PM

Some people want to watch the world burn


https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/st...554699778?s=21

womanfish 03-08-2020 09:04 PM

I think this may have already been posted. But it makes me smile every time I read it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MSNBC/sta...57135497773058

BEAL 03-08-2020 09:05 PM

Tax cuts solve everything


https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...730914817?s=21

Also, Ted Cruz is on self quarantine. He shook the hand of the person who tested positive of the virus while attending CPAC

LuckyNumber7 03-08-2020 09:10 PM

Well screw Ted Cruz but I hope he’s not infected and really just want this inevitable go go away.

anitram 03-08-2020 09:29 PM

Quote:

Fmr. Bloomberg adviser Tim O'Brien: "If Republicans really want to make an issue out of Hunter Biden ... there is going to be a scorched earth response aimed at all of the Trump children that is going to be unlike anything they've experienced thus far."
Like Headache said - rich uncle Mike don't give a fuck.

I think that he's absolutely delighted to spend a billion trashing the entire Trump family every day of the week and twice on Sunday. And I'm here for it.

These lazy, lying, entitled grifter fucks have been like teflon because nobody's come at them hard so far.

Vlad n U 2 03-08-2020 10:36 PM

If you could put the Bloomberg and Trump families on a deserted island with no means of communication to the outside world then that would be ideal. With their collective wealth redistributed to America's poor, of course.


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