sure. and taylor swift might stop by this evening to give me a handjob too.

Lay off T.Swizzle or we're gonna have bad blood.

I don't see why it's so far-fetched. All he has to do is move the general election needle another two points and that will effectively cement wins (if the election were held today) in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa where he's already leading on FiveThirtyEight and give him the coin flip advantage in Nevada.

Colorado would then become an actual race and his Pennsylvania chances won't be so woeful.

Trump is currently leading by quite a bit in Maine's 2nd District as well. Just something to look out for as I can't come up with a scenario where that one electoral vote will actually matter.

Still not sure why Republicans didn't just game the system in all the state houses. A lot of blue states have red control at the state level and could have easily changed the electoral allotments to effectively give Republicans votes for states that they would lose on the whole. Do that in a couple of states and Trump would become President.


And a few minutes later, I notice FiveThirtyEight just made the same argument I just made if Trump moves up a bit more in the polls:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ood-as-obamas/

According to fivethirtyeight, if the election were held today, Trump's odds of winning the above states are as follows:

Nevada: 55.0% chance of winning
Iowa: 70.6% chance of winning
Florida: 56.5% chance of winning
Ohio: 62.6% chance of winning
North Carolina: 56.7% chance of winning
Colorado: 37.9% chance of winning

I wish my odds of getting a tswift handjob were as high as Dave's apparently are.

This is getting close enough that it almost makes me wanna stop bashing Clinton.

2016 US Presidential Election Thread XIII
 

You think that's good for Trump?

Trump can take literally all of those states where he's "favored," and if Clinton just takes PA/MI/WI/VA/CO, she's won.

The map isn't in republican favor. Nothing to do with Trump, but those numbers aren't good enough. He needs ALL of those states, so if his "odds" of winning just one range somewhere between 50-70%, then the odds of winning all of them are below 10%.

Note: that's mildly improperly applied statistics, but it still should give an idea of how much of a hole any republican is in due to the state of the blue country. In some sense, the republicans needed a cultural transformation to win this one. They just chose an ass backwards one.

Oh, also, this:

Attachment 10885

Oh, certainly. I don't mean to imply that it's PROBABLE that he'll win, but as the statisticians at 538 say as well, it's not incredibly unlikely.

As a whole, if the election were held today, they put Trump's odds of emerging victorious at 42.7%. 538 are pretty solid at this, and if anything, have highballed Clinton and lowballed Trump during the primaries.

Trump's the underdog, still. But less so than every before.

Given everything he has done and said and his massive cash diasdvantage, the fact that Trump is above 40% is absolutely shocking.

Romney was at 20% when the election rolled around and McCain was at a near impossibility that he could win the electoral college. Trump is in a damn good position and as the FiveThirtyEight article that I just posted mentioned, Clinton really doesn't have a built-in Electoral Advantage this time around with Trump being about four times more likely to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote. There is no protective Blue Wall this time and a gain of a couple points nationally will suddenly put states like Colorado, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in play - any of which could tip it to Trump.

I get the logic, but it's just pretty much wrong. Believe me, FiveThirtyEight factors that into their projections, but all things considered, Trump would reasonably be expected to take all the non-Colorado states in that list Caleb posted. They all give him a significant chance of winning above a coin-flip, and given the information at hand, he'd be expected to win them with ease.

Obviously, if just one of those falls out of his column it's game over and the election can be called right then on that first Tuesday in November.

Just to throw out a hypothetical, I think if the Election were actually held today, he would give Clinton a run for her money and possibly even win and I base that all entirely on the fact that the Get Out The Vote operation is of far more importance to Democrats as they rely on more economically disadvantaged voters that have to be dragged to the polls. So, in theory, a lot of people that will vote Democrat in November won't be on the path to doing so until they get contacted by a field worker in October, etc.

I think Obama probably would have won each election without those voters, to be honest, but it would have been moderately close in 2008 and a nail biter in 2012. Clinton is going to take a lot more effort to get people to actually vote and the polling suggests it will absolutely matter this time.

Again, that debate is going to change everything.

I'm starting to think you want Trump to win so you can spend the next four years telling everyone how stupid they were to nominate Hillary and if only Bernie had been the nominee...

In a polarized country of red versus blue, this shouldn't be shocking. Clinton is an option, and Trump is an option. "Not Trump" is an option, and "Not Clinton" is an option. Some people tend to think that first set and second set are the same thing (they're not).

2016 US Presidential Election Thread XIII
 

You proved Godwin's Law in record time.

Godwin's Law - As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazism or Hitler approaches 1


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Clinton just had the worst 2 weeks of her campaign and she took a hit in the polls.

She's back out, Obama, Michele, Bernie, Warren and Biden are all out starting a couple days ago.
Trump just got stuck in this birther thing again, and screwed up the Flint visit royally.

We haven't even had a freaking debate yet! The debates will shift the polls significantly. Not saying it will go Clintons way. But right now, the polls are still swinging. I think she will get a lift over the next week or so and then the debates will be the game-changer.

man i've told you a million times that we are never ever ever getting back together.

Thank you.

Oh yeah? Go on...

Why the fuck would I do that, Donald?


This is irrelevant, as we didn't even talk about their "projections."

When was the last time you considered everything? That seems to be something frequently missing from your tactic of debate.


When did we switch from quantitative reasoning to qualitative reasoning? The very basis of my post was if Trump managed to win all of those states. "Reasonably expected" is a hilarious stretch. It's "plausible," but probability (the focus of my post) suggests unfavored.


What the hell are you talking about? The whole discussion is about the odds Caleb posted for each state. "They all" don't give him a "significant" chance of winning above a coin flip. They give him the odds posted right fucking above. And it's asinine to think either candidate would have odds "well above a coin flip" for any state at this point. "Expected to win with ease" my ass. Babbling garbage.


They're not in his column! They're battleground states! For a reason! Having a 50-70% odds of winning something is NOT the same thing as polling 50-70%.

Just the truth man. You want to bury your head in the sand and pretend the threat isn't real, go ahead.

I wasn't referring to you, btw, when I was talking about people being racist and blaming the other. I was referring to all those people at the rallies, who appear to be less educated than you, who can be regularly heard uttering racist, sexist, and homophobic slurs(n word, see you next tuesday, f word), who cheer raucously when Trump talks about rounding up all the Mexican immigrants and deporting them and tearing their families apart, who so often chant 'hang the bitch' and 'kill the bitch', who think Obama wasn't born here, etc etc etc.

I honestly don't think you're one of them. I wouldn't bother debating with you if I did. But there are a lot of them and they are a sizable portion of his base and to pretend that isn't real is to bury your head in the sand.

And 98% of the time it would be an unfair comparison, this falls outside that %


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