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Oregoropa 06-22-2016 07:24 PM

Brexit
 
Might only be an active thread for the next 48 hours, but deserves some board discussion.

UK Board members what are your thoughts?

If they do decide to leave, I could see other countries launching similar referendums. Will this collapse the House of Cards that is the EU as was foretold by Bono's reveal in the Zoo-TV Sydney Concert?

Axver 06-22-2016 08:17 PM

Observing from afar, what an abhorrent campaign this has been from the Leave side, the potentially valid arguments drowned in a sea of misdirected bitterness and hatred.

I fully expect that if Brexit happens, Scotland will very quickly hold another independence referendum and this time succeed.

But my prediction is that the Scottish and ex-pat vote will swing the result narrowly to Remain. 51-49.

iron yuppie 06-22-2016 09:59 PM

I've been surprised at how much of the Leave sentiment boils down to social issues (i.e. xenophobia) rather than economic ones. Most of what I have been reading suggests that people don't have much of an idea what the economic implications will be of an exit. I'd expect a short term hit to the UK based on uncertainty from investors but in the long run I wouldn't expect much a disruption to the UK.

LuckyNumber7 06-22-2016 10:44 PM

I can't imagine it'll go through.

I also really hope it doesn't. I'm moving to England in three months with an EU passport. Don't want complications down the road.

Vlad n U 2 06-22-2016 11:04 PM

One of those referendums where there's no immediately 'good' choice from my perspective. I think the EU is a load of shit but I'd vote Remain because Leave would be more harmful given who and what is leading the push for it there.

Irvine511 06-22-2016 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iron yuppie (Post 8080581)
I've been surprised at how much of the Leave sentiment boils down to social issues (i.e. xenophobia) rather than economic ones. Most of what I have been reading suggests that people don't have much of an idea what the economic implications will be of an exit. I'd expect a short term hit to the UK based on uncertainty from investors but in the long run I wouldn't expect much a disruption to the UK.




I don't have much to add beyond this. It sounds like there are a lot of sociocultural undercurrents that might be difficult for foreigners to fully grasp. And the "black swan" even of the poor MP has given it another layer of complication. It seems like it's a bad idea economically, and there's the idea of it being a contagion. But I don't, and can't, feel these events too viscerally. It's more "well this is an interesting aspect of the situation."

digitize 06-23-2016 12:54 AM

Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Vlad n U 2 (Post 8080589)
One of those referendums where there's no immediately 'good' choice from my perspective. I think the EU is a load of shit but I'd vote Remain because Leave would be more harmful given who and what is leading the push for it there.


Sounds like Jeremy Corbyn, who has apparently turned into an absolutely awful campaigner for Remain.


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Vlad n U 2 06-23-2016 01:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by digitize (Post 8080638)
Sounds like Jeremy Corbyn, who has apparently turned into an absolutely awful campaigner for Remain.


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Yes, though I'd wager he really had no good option. He'd be marginalised either way as genuinely left wing perspectives have been.

Salome 06-23-2016 02:31 AM

Neither side has presented many valuable arguments.
I think the only argument that truly makes sense to me is that if a Brexit does happen the NHS and research in England will suffer a hefty blow.

Other than that the remain side blows any study that hints at economic turmoil out of proportion (though even the exit side mostly agrees that the first years after Brexit will not be great). The exit side follows the Donald Trump model of just layering lies upon lies upon catchphrases (which are also lies) knowing their supporters don't care and it will stick in the subconscious of the undecided voters.

LuckyNumber7 06-23-2016 03:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Salome (Post 8080645)
Neither side has presented many valuable arguments.
I think the only argument that truly makes sense to me is that if a Brexit does happen the NHS and research in England will suffer a hefty blow.

Other than that the remain side blows any study that hints at economic turmoil out of proportion (though even the exit side mostly agrees that the first years after Brexit will not be great). The exit side follows the Donald Trump model of just layering lies upon lies upon catchphrases (which are also lies) knowing their supporters don't care and it will stick in the subconscious of the undecided voters.


I'm not really sure what you mean. First you say neither side has presented arguments, but then you mention how anyone on the side of remain has something to argue, even if blown out of proportion. All in the meanwhile, the exiters are exemplifying a bunch of nationalist hoohaw and nothing more.

Salome 06-23-2016 04:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 (Post 8080648)
I'm not really sure what you mean. First you say neither side has presented arguments, but then you mention how anyone on the side of remain has something to argue, even if blown out of proportion. All in the meanwhile, the exiters are exemplifying a bunch of nationalist hoohaw and nothing more.

I think it would be a big mistake for England to leave the EU, but the remain side has done a poor job presenting why. And the way they are manhandling studies on the effect on the UK economy has caused many people to become weary of the valid arguments that could have been made in this area.

The Brexit argument just doesn't exist beyond fueling nationalistic crap.
UK will still have to deal with the EU. They will still have to pay the EU. They will still have to deal with decisions in the EU.

On the other side, many within the EU have had it with the UK and their eternal demands for special treatment. So there is that.

anitram 06-23-2016 07:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Salome (Post 8080651)
I think it would be a big mistake for England to leave the EU, but the remain side has done a poor job presenting why. And the way they are manhandling studies on the effect on the UK economy has caused many people to become weary of the valid arguments that could have been made in this area.

I agree.

The arguments about the tanking currency have especially been blown out of proportion. Yes, the GBP would likely see a historic collapse in the immediate aftermath but there is really no sound argument that it would remain that way in the long term.

I still think that this referendum is one of those big, scary changes that will result in a lot of people who may lean toward "leave" to get into the booth and have a change of heart at the last minute.

iron yuppie 06-23-2016 10:43 AM

What has the UK really ever gained from being in the EU in a strictly economic sense? As far as I can tell, the real beneficiaries of the EU have been underdeveloped states that gained access to easy credit and a stable currency, e.g. Greece which promptly managed to squander those benefits in a monumental way. In the case of a UK or a Germany, which already had strong currencies and financial sectors, neither of those benefits apply.

anitram 06-23-2016 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iron yuppie (Post 8080700)
What has the UK really ever gained from being in the EU in a strictly economic sense? As far as I can tell, the real beneficiaries of the EU have been underdeveloped states that gained access to easy credit and a stable currency, e.g. Greece which promptly managed to squander those benefits in a monumental way. In the case of a UK or a Germany, which already had strong currencies and financial sectors, neither of those benefits apply.

They benefit from increased free trade and the flow of labour (recognizing that this is part of the issue for the Leave crowd, but the UK has undeniably been a net recipient of labour which has had a stimulating effect on their economy).

Some of the longterm benefits of the EU are not as great for them as some of the poorer countries but there are some benefits.

iron yuppie 06-23-2016 11:14 AM

I see the labor argument, but theoretically Britain could exit the EU and still leave their borders relatively open if they so chose. Granted that likely won't happen because of the engrained racism in the UK, but economically it could be done.

deep 06-23-2016 01:34 PM

the winning side, will win with a 51-53%, most likely
remain,
the killing probably swayed enough weak minded people to get the win. There are arguments on both sides, if I had a vote, I'd probably vote exit. Opens boarders is a nice concept, but in practice a disaster, benefiting those at the top and hurting honest working class people. Any of you that think it is a good idea, take the doors off of your house and let people come in and sleep in your home and use your possessions, just because they have less than you.

eventually the EU will blow up, so better for Britain to exit.

LuckyNumber7 06-23-2016 01:44 PM

I don't think the killing has much say domestically in the UK. I think it just internationally opened some eyes as to the sort of reasons (or lack thereof) and the type of people who would be on the exit side. Nationalistic sort...

deep 06-23-2016 02:54 PM

and who is on the remain side??

these people that want open immigration, so they can express their political views in the following ways

2013 29 April: Pavlo Lapshyn attacks. Lapshyn, a Ukrainian student and right-wing extremist, stabbed Mohammed Saleem, a Birmingham resident to death. He later admitted to police that he wished to start a "race war".[26] Lapshyn later detonated a home-made bomb outside a mosque in Walsall on 21 June. 150 homes were evacuated but no person was injured.[26] On 28 May Lapshyn detonated a second home-made bomb near a mosque in Wolverhampton, and attacked a mosque in Tipton with an improvised explosive device containing nails on 12 July. Friday prayers were delayed that day, and so his intended victims were still inside. Laphsyn was later sentenced to serve a minimum of 40 years.[27][28][29]
2013 22 May: A British soldier, Lee Rigby, was murdered in an attack in Woolwich by Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale, two Islamist extremists armed with a handgun and a number of bladed implements. Both men were sentenced to life imprisonment, with Adebolajo given a whole life order and Adebowale ordered to serve at least 45 years.[30]
2015 5 December: Three people are stabbed at Leytonstone tube station in east London, with one person suffering severe knife injuries; police subsequently announced that they were treating the stabbings as a 'terrorist incident'.[31] Video footage emerged following the stabbing of the attacker repeatedly shouting "this is for Syria", in reference to the Royal Air Force's bombing of the Islamic State in Syria, which had commenced on 3 December after parliamentary approval.[32]

Prevented or failed attacks
2007 29 June: London car bombs.
2009 3 September : Manchester Piccadilly multiple suicide bomber plot.[40] In 2009 Pakistani national Abid Naseer, was one of 12 suspects arrested on suspicion of being part of a Manchester Terror cell, after arriving in the UK a year before. All were released on insufficient evidence, but ordered to be deported from the UK. Naseer's deportation to Pakistan was prevented on human rights grounds, as he was ruled 'likely to be mistreated'. In 2013, on further evidence from Al-Queda sources, including documents from the Bin Laden Raid, he was extradited to the US, and on 4 March 2015 was found guilty of masterminding an Al-Queda directed plot to synchronize multiple suicide bombings around Manchesters Arndale Centre and Piccadilly Shopping centre in a coordinated attack involving other locations including the New York Subway with other cells.
2012 June: Five extremists plotted to bomb an English Defence League rally in Dewsbury but arrived late and were arrested when returning to Birmingham. A sixth was also convicted.[41]
2013 April: As part of Operation Pitsford 11 Muslim extremists are jailed for a plotting terror attack involving suicide Bombers.[42]
2015 12 Feb : Liverpool Ricin Plot:[43] Mohammed Ammar Ali, an I.T. worker who rented a flat in Liverpool as a base of operations, attempted to buy 500 mg of Ricin, which could kill an possible 1,400 people, using the darkweb. He was instead delivered a white powder by the FBI. Evidence was also found of attempts to purchase rabbits or chinchillas to test the poison out on.
2015 7 July : Attempted anniversary London 7/7 bomb plot.[44] Mohammed Rehman and Sana Ahmed Khan were found guilty of possession of 10 kg of Urea Nitrate. Rehman called himself the 'silent bomber' and asked his twitter followers to choose between the Westfield Shopping Centre or the London Underground for the planned suicide bomb.

LuckyNumber7 06-23-2016 03:05 PM

Oh boy. I can't wait to digest this deep post.

deep 06-23-2016 03:09 PM

it is just that there are haters on both sides
that killing did flip a few votes, and this election appears to be very close

don't think there are not haters voting for Hillary, if that killer in FL had waited until after the election to murder those kids, he would have certainly been all in for Hillary along with his hating family.


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