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-   -   US 08 Presidential Campaign General Discussion Thread #8 (https://www.u2interference.com/forums/f290/us-08-presidential-campaign-general-discussion-thread-8-a-189454.html)

Strongbow 09-07-2008 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by namkcuR (Post 5427439)
These national polls don't matter.

What matters is that Obama/Biden is ahead in New Mexico, 47.3 to 43.

What matters is that Obama/Biden is ahead in Pennsylvania, 47.4 to 42.4.

What matters is that Obama/Biden is ahead in Michigan, 46.0 to 41.7.

What matters is that Obama/Biden is ahead in Colorado, albeit by the slimmest of margins.

If all of this holds true, they win the election, even without Ohio, Virginia, or Florida. And the McCain/Palin lead in Ohio is less than one point right now, and it's a deadlock in Virginia.

McCain/Palin have a steeper hill to climb in terms of the electoral college.

The Republican ticket naturally has a steeper climb since they have held the office of President the past two terms. Since World War II, no party has won a 3rd consecutive term in the White House with the exception of the Republicans 3 consecutive terms with Reagan and Bush Sr.

Yet, despite that and all the other uphill battles the Republicans face, the election is very close, but with McCain/Palin now ahead of Obama by 3 percentage points in the latest national gallup poll with only 58 days to go before election day. Plus, its the Democrats that actually have to pick up red states in order to win. If McCain/Palin just keeps Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, they will win the election.

TheEdge U2JT 09-07-2008 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strongbow (Post 5435704)
The Republican ticket naturally has a steeper climb since they have held the office of President the past two terms. Since World War II, no party has won a 3rd consecutive term in the White House with the exception of the Republicans 3 consecutive terms with Reagan and Bush Sr.

Yet, despite that and all the other uphill battles the Republicans face, the election is very close, but with McCain/Palin now ahead of Obama by 3 percentage points in the latest national gallup poll with only 58 days to go before election day. Plus, its the Democrats that actually have to pick up red states in order to win. If McCain/Palin just keeps Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, they will win the election.

When these listed battleground state polls were taken needs to be considered:

NM 8/26
Mich 8/21
Penn 8/26
Colo 8/26

All polls pre-Palin. With the reactions seen in the national polls, I'm sure there will be a positive McCain effect in these keys states.

Strongbow 09-07-2008 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheEdge U2JT (Post 5435736)
When these listed battleground state polls were taken needs to be considered:

NM 8/26
Mich 8/21
Penn 8/26
Colo 8/26

All polls pre-Palin. With the reactions seen in the national polls, I'm sure there will be a positive McCain effect in these keys states.


Thats true, in fact there are few if any post convention state polls yet. Will probably start to see some towards the end of this coming week.

namkcuR 09-07-2008 03:00 PM

Pennsylvania and Michigan will probably remain in Obama's pocket. I don't see them going anywhere.

I put my money on New Mexico staying in Obama's pocket, what with their Democratic governor and large(44% I think) Hispanic population.

Colorado will be big, I think. Obama has ever so slight a lead there right now. I want Colorado bad. Obama gets Colorado, he doesn't have to worry about Ohio.

I live in Ohio. It's virtually tied here right now. McCain's lead is less than one point. There is a difference in Ohio now compared to 2004 - we have a Democratic governor now. The local news reported yesterday that he is campaigning hard core for Obama. Having the support of the governor matters - we didn't have it in 2004. Still, Ohio will be close.

And who knows what will happen with Virginia.

anitram 09-07-2008 03:05 PM

It will not just come down to independent voters.

But to voter turn out. Right now, regardless of how excited the GOP is about Palin, Obama still has a substantial lead in his followers' excitement levels, nevermind the increased voter registration, nevermind the African American turnout which will be enormous, and nevermind the iffy college campus turnout which has the potential to be huge.

Obama has the better ground game, more offices, and more people involved. The question is, will they be able to pull it off on election night.

As for Ohio, a lot will depend on how many new voters they can get to the polls early in October. Because of the slightly peculiar early voting rules there, that alone could end up deciding this thing in the end if they are extremely aggressive about pursuing this group.

Strongbow 09-07-2008 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anitram (Post 5435758)
It will not just come down to independent voters.

But to voter turn out. Right now, regardless of how excited the GOP is about Palin, Obama still has a substantial lead in his followers' excitement levels, nevermind the increased voter registration, nevermind the African American turnout which will be enormous, and nevermind the iffy college campus turnout which has the potential to be huge.

Well, I guess they were not excited enough to watch Obama's convention speech considering more people watched McCain and almost as many watched Sarah Palin.

Republicans support their nominee by a larger margin than Democrats support their nominee. 48% of men plan to vote for McCain versus 42% who will vote for Obama prior to the pick of Palin as VP. McCain was behind with women though, with about 49% supporting Obama and 39% supporting McCain. But that female figure will now move in McCain's direction now that he has Palin on the ticket, the question is how much will it move in his direction.

anitram 09-07-2008 03:33 PM

I hope you keep thinking that the Obama people are not as energized as we think. That sure worked wonders for Hillary out in Iowa.

Diemen 09-07-2008 03:33 PM

But he has numbers, anitram, NUMBERS!

TheEdge U2JT 09-07-2008 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diemen (Post 5435839)
But he has numbers, anitram, NUMBERS!

Falling number D! FALLING NUMBERS!

It wont hurt to admit it, your guy is falling....well, it probably does hurt. That why you wont admit it.

Diemen 09-07-2008 04:06 PM

As I and many others have said on this board on numerous occasions, polls are meaningless at this point. Sure, Obama is down a few points right now. Doesn't mean a thing. Something could happen next week to change that. For or against his favor.

And sometimes 2 polls taken at the same time come to different conclusions. My conclusion? They're not all that accurate and shouldn't be given much weight.

phillyfan26 09-07-2008 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diemen (Post 5435891)
As I and many others have said on this board on numerous occasions, polls are meaningless at this point. Sure, Obama is down a few points right now. Doesn't mean a thing. Something could happen next week to change that. For or against his favor.

And sometimes 2 polls taken at the same time come to different conclusions. My conclusion? They're not all that accurate and shouldn't be given much weight.

Agreed. The voter registration stats are much more telling, especially since it's actual stats and not just samples like these polls.

TheEdge U2JT 09-07-2008 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diemen (Post 5435891)
As I and many others have said on this board on numerous occasions, polls are meaningless at this point. Sure, Obama is down a few points right now. Doesn't mean a thing. Something could happen next week to change that. For or against his favor.

And sometimes 2 polls taken at the same time come to different conclusions. My conclusion? They're not all that accurate and shouldn't be given much weight.

So which is it D???

One post you are saying, :"But he has numbers, anitram, NUMBERS

Now it is polls are meaningless. You are talking our of both sides of your mouth in this issue on posts just 30 minutes apart. I guess it all depends on how it shapes up for Obama. If his numbers are up....it is in the bag. Look look, see...Obama leads!!!! Yeah!!!!

If he falls, the numbers are meaningless and blah blah blah.

You crack me up!

anitram 09-07-2008 04:24 PM

Wow you obviously don't get sarcasm?

TheEdge U2JT 09-07-2008 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anitram (Post 5435937)
Wow you obviously don't get sarcasm?

Yeah, sure, right!

deep 09-07-2008 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anitram (Post 5435838)
I hope you keep thinking that the Obama people are not as energized as we think. That sure worked wonders for Hillary out in Iowa.

Busloads of college kids from out of state can and did win cauci.



It takes registered voters going to the polls to win elections.

Remove cauci - and only count registered voters that voted.

Hillary is the nom. :huh:

No cauci in November. :shrug:

melon 09-07-2008 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deep (Post 5435952)
It takes registered voters going to the polls to win elections.

Remove cauci - and only count registered voters that voted.

Hillary is the nom. :huh:

No cauci in November. :shrug:

Frankly, caucuses should be banned.

deep 09-07-2008 04:33 PM

They are ripe with fraud.

anitram 09-07-2008 04:35 PM

I think they are strange, but worse than that, they can be coercive in a sense.

That said, everyone knew that was the system, so if you chose to play it by ignoring those states, then you should be lambasted for running a poorly thought out campaign.

melon 09-07-2008 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deep (Post 5435961)
They are ripe with fraud.

More than anything, though, they are undemocratic.

I've said it before, but I'll say it again. We should have a nationwide runoff election, instead of partisan primaries and caucuses. Let the two candidates that voting public prefers the most run in the final election.

As it stands, even primaries can be flooded with voters from the other party trying to influence the election, particularly if you're in a state where one party has a caucus and the other has a primary.

martha 09-07-2008 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheEdge U2JT (Post 5435948)
Yeah, sure, right!

It might be a good idea to calm down, and then get to know the posters in here before jumping down their throats. Maybe reading a few more threads before posting would be a good idea.


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