Will they sell out stadiums in the USA?

[4U2Play]

Yes, people may be cutting back on the number of shows they go to, but there are smaller number of shows that they can actually attend.

Which still means fewer repeat customers than during the Vertigo Tour.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Very good post -- demographics are shifting a lot: for Vertigo I went out three times, my kids were 6 months and thankfully Grandma helped out -- actually, she had to since I paid for her to see U2 in San Diego at 62 with her grandsons and my Dad, but I digress. My kids are now 5 -- sports and such take up their life and my time and money too. Oh yes, and my wife tolerates me and U2, but in this economy, it will be one show, maybe two or I am abstinent by force for a long time.

I have not seen an answer to one question posed -- the average US stadium will be aorund 65,000 fans -- bigger in some markets, a tad smaller in others.

I believe it is way too early to call this album a commercial success - one week of sales? Please, maybe we should talk in a month -- not likely, but for all we know sales could fall off of the cliff after week 3; in part because I, like others, do not hear a ton of radio friendly hits on this album, and that will hurt sales, despite critical success in my opinion.

All that said, big city markets will likely sell out or come close regardless of the economy -- smaller markets like Norman, might struggle to sell 40K tickets -- a lot will depend on pricing and promotion.

When gauging the albums success, especially in the United States, keep in mind that album sales are WAY DOWN from where they were just a few years ago.

At the end of 2008, these were the top 10 selling albums for the year in the United States:

[edit] Best Selling Albums 2008 [2]
1. Tha Carter III / Lil Wayne ~ 2,874,000
2. Viva La Vida or Death and All His Friends / Coldplay ~ 2,144,000
3. Fearless / Taylor Swift ~ 2,112,179
4. Rock N Roll Jesus / Kid Rock ~ 2,018,000
5. Black Ice / AC/DC ~ 1,915,172
6. Taylor Swift / Taylor Swift ~ 1,600,000
7. Death Magnetic / Metallica ~ 1,565,000
8. Paper Trail / T.I. ~ 1,522,000
9. Sleep Through The Static / Jack Johnson ~ 1,492,000
10. I Am... Sasha Fierce / Beyoncé ~ 1,459,000


Notice that only 4 albums in 2008 actually sold more than 2 million copies, and so far in 2009, album sales are down 12% from where they were in 2008!

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Which still means fewer repeat customers than during the Vertigo Tour.

It also means the 90% of people who went to night two in x city will now be going to night 1 since that is the only show. In addition, some cities are being skipped on the first leg, which will force both night 1 and night 2 attendance in that city into x city with just one show.

 

[4U2Play]

It also means the 90% of people who went to night two in x city will now be going to night 1 since that is the only show. In addition, some cities are being skipped on the first leg, which will force both night 1 and night 2 attendance in that city into x city with just one show.

Most US arenas only hold about 20,000 fans max per show, totalling 40,000 tickets for a two-night stand. Not even subtracting the repeat customers who attended both shows, let's assume 90% of those 40,000 Vertigo Tour fans go this time to the stadium show in their town (which is too high a percentage, I believe), which equals only 36,000 fans. If stadiums average 56,000 tickets, where is U2 going to get the other 20,000 fans to fill these stadiums? Will they all be new fans who missed the Vertigo Tour last time? Or, will they all be travellers driving and flying in from all over the region?

Again, this reckoning does not include the big cities like NYC, Boston, Chicago and LA, which hosted multiple Vertigo shows and will probably sell out their stadiums easily.

I would not presume that the majority of fans in cities that are being skipped on the first leg will travel to the next closest city to see them.

Will large numbers of Vertigo Denver 1 & 2 fans and Salt Lake City fans drive to Norman or Phoenix because they're getting skipped this Fall? I doubt it.

For anedotal evidence, I have three friends who, combined, saw U2 44 times on the Vertigo Tour. All three have said they might see the local Oakland show (if one gets scheduled now or in 2010), and maybe the Vegas show this Fall.... that's it. That's 38, or possibly 41 fewer tickets sold on this tour compared to Vertigo just among these three fans. While this is admittedly an extreme case, I think it points toward a larger trend this year.

 

[lpingb]

tour sell outs....

I think all of the days will sell out....The First Leg of Popmart had 30 shows so in theory compared to that there is 1/5th or 1/6th less seats available. The low end tickets will run under $100 for a pair ie $30 each plus fees. I think Norman will sell out...College Town, I think Dell has a pretty good sized office nearby. Plus the presale will help getting more tickets in the hands of fans. I think where the edge will be taken off is the scalpers and package sellers....ON the economy I think when it comes down to paying$250 for a GA from a scalper the $30 Nosebleed ticket looks better...ie a nosebleed seat is better then paying $250 for a GA (sort of)

 

[mrclutch34do]

Tell me how easy it will be to get tickets when I have to shell out $180 for nosebleed seats like I had to in '05 for Boston .

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Most US arenas only hold about 20,000 fans max per show, totalling 40,000 tickets. Not even accounting for repeat customers who attended both shows, let's assume 90% of them go this time to the stadium show (which is too high a percentage, I believe), which equals 36,000 fans. Where is U2 going to get the other 20,000 fans to fill these stadiums?

Your forgetting that of the 78 Arena shows that U2 did on the Vertigo Tour in 2005, 73 of them soldout within minutes or hours after going on sale. The other 5 only had seats BEHIND the stage remaining after the first day. About 1,450,000 people attended those 78 shows, BUT there were many people who did not attend because they could not get a TICKET. Plus, there are only 16 shows currently scheduled for North America. 1,450,000 divided by 16 is 90,625. No its not a fully accurate comparison, but it does give you an idea about the fact that when you have x number of fans, but a smaller number of shows, its easier to fill them.

For Example, Washington DC soldout in under 50 minutes both of its show on Vertigo, about 40,000 fans. Only a few fans were able to get tickets for both shows in those 50 minutes, I'd say less than 5% were able to go to each show. Then there are thousands of people who were unable to get through. So, you start with 36,000 on this tour, but then you have to add thousands of people who were not able to get through on the first day. With no show in nearby Philadelphia for the first leg, you have nearby market of 6 million people many of whom will be traveling south to fill up a stadium show in DC. Then, even if the show does not sellout on the first day, there will be 4 months for it to sell more tickets.

I would not presume that the majority of fans in cities that are being skipped on the first leg will travel to the next closest city to see them.

Thats correct, but only a minority of them have to travel to the next closest city to have a major impact in terms of a show being able to sellout or not.

Will large numbers of Vertigo Denver 1 & 2 fans and Salt Lake City fans drive to Norman or Phoenix because they're getting skipped this Fall? I doubt it.

If just 5,000 to 10,000 of them travel to those cities, it will have a major impact.

 

[pudgie_child]

U2 did 78 arena shows in the United States and Canada in 2005. At each show there were nearly 5,000 tickets sold that were $160 dollars. Thats 390,000 tickets at $160 which comes out to $62,400,000. Divide $62,400,000 by $250 and you get 249,600 tickets. With the 16 North American shows that have been announced, that works out to 15,600 $250 tickets per show. So, I'd say they will do just find with having 10,000 tickets at that price per show, given that there are only 16 shows on this leg, and likely will not be more than 20 in North America for this leg in 2009.

I suspect that there aren't a ton of people who will pay $250 per head to see U2 in a stadium, certainly not 10,000 people per night.

 

[zoo99]

On what are you basing these assumptions?

just my best guess, but I would be very surprised to see otherwise, IF things go very bad I can see some 250 tickets becoming 100 tickets etc. but thats bout it.

 

[zoo99]

I suspect that there aren't a ton of people who will pay $250 to see U2 in a stadium, certainly not 10,000 people per night.

all I can say is the only concert in my whole life that I went to and I couldn't get a ticket to was one of the last vertigo shows in toronto the scalpers wouldn't take my 200 for a 160 ticket and the show had already started, it was insane !

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

I suspect that there aren't a ton of people who will pay $250 to see U2 in a stadium, certainly not 10,000 people per night.

Well, lets see how the first 3 stadium shows in Milano, Stockholm, and Amsterdam sell this weekend. If you wait to Sunday to try and buy the $250 tickets for those shows, let alone any ticket, there will probably not be any. All 3 shows will have 10,000 to 15,000 tickets at the top ticket price.

 

[4U2Play]

Your forgetting that of the 78 Arena shows that U2 did on the Vertigo Tour in 2005, 73 of them soldout within minutes or hours after going on sale. The other 5 only had seats BEHIND the stage remaining after the first day. About 1,450,000 people attended those 78 shows, BUT there were many people who did not attend because they could not get a TICKET. Plus, there are only 16 shows currently scheduled for North America. 1,450,000 divided by 16 is 90,625. No its not a fully accurate comparison, but it does give you an idea about the fact that when you have x number of fans, but a smaller number of shows, its easier to fill them.

I'm assuming that U2 will do 25 shows in North America, as they suggested they would before the tour date announcement. You well know that they aren't only doing 16 shows here, so your 90,625 figure is nowhere near accurate.

Plus, you optimistically assume all 1,450,000 tickets that were sold here for Vertigo will all come back again... that's 100%. That will definitely not happen. That 1,450,000 number does not even account for the many thousands of tickets that were sold to only one person who went to multiple shows. Plus, arena shows are far preferrable to North American fans than stadium shows, so demand will drop off simply because of the type of venue that is being used this time.

I hope you are correct, I hope that U2 sells out every single stadium and makes loads of cash, but without a reduction in ticket prices, I don't see it happening.

 

[beau99]

I doubt the AZ show sells out. The stadium here holds 80,000 plus the recession is pretty bad in this state. I'll probably have to miss out again.

 

[ouu2fan23]

Being from Oklahoma I'm going to guess that Norman will come close to selling out. As said above its a college town, it has a Dell office near by, also Norman is located only 15 minutes from Oklahoma City and around 45 minutes from Tulsa which should bring a fair number of people to the show. Who knows the stadium holds around 84k.

 

[4U2Play]

I doubt the AZ show sells out. The stadium here holds 80,000 plus the recession is pretty bad in this state. I'll probably have to miss out again.

GA tickets for the two Vertigo Glendale shows could be had for $10 outside the arena before the shows began, such was the weak demand, even though both shows were "sold out"

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

I'm assuming that U2 will do 25 shows in North America, as they suggested they would before the tour date announcement. You well know that they aren't only doing 16 shows here, so your 90,625 figure is nowhere near accurate.

Plus, you optimistically assume all 1,450,000 tickets that were sold here for Vertigo will all come back again... that's 100%. That will definitely not happen. That 1,450,000 number does not even account for the many thousands of tickets that were sold to only one person who went to multiple shows. Plus, arena shows are far preferrable to North American fans than stadium shows, so demand will drop off simply because of the type of venue that is being used this time.

I hope you are correct, I hope that U2 sells out every single stadium and makes loads of cash, but without a reduction in ticket prices, I don't see it happening.

I understand that, but your forgetting all the people on the Vertigo Tour who were unable to attend because they could not get a ticket. 1,450,000 is the number of tickets sold in North America on the Vertigo tour, BUT the number of people who attempted to go to the show is HIGHER than that!

40% of the tickets being sold at these stadium shows are $55 dollars or less. Adjusted for inflation for the Vertigo Tour, only 20% of tickets were sold at that price.

This time around there are 10,000 tickets at each show being sold for only $30 dollars.


Every show does not have to completely sellout for the tour to be considered a success. There were Joshua Tree stadium shows that did not sellout, yet that tour was considered a success. 25% of the ZOO TV stadium shows did not sellout in North America, yet that tour was considered a success.

When this tour finishes at the end of 2010, it will be the highest grossing tour ever in history.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

GA tickets for the two Vertigo Glendale shows could be had for $10 outside the arena before the shows began, such was the weak demand, even though both shows were "sold out"

Since when is selling out two shows in Glendale considered "weak demand"? Just because scalpers can't get rid of their tickets right before the show does not mean demand is "weak". The majority of fans who would like to attend a show but can't get tickets through normal channels do not show up the day of the show attempting to buy from scalpers.

With this tour, its likely that there will still be tickets available at the box office on the day of a the show in a place like Arizona, but that does not mean there won't be 50,000 or so people in the stadium. Thats a translates to over a $5,000,000 gross for a single show in Arizona which may in fact be the record for the state.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

I doubt the AZ show sells out. The stadium here holds 80,000 plus the recession is pretty bad in this state. I'll probably have to miss out again.

Remember, there are tickets as low as $30 dollars, and it is possible scalpers will be trying to get rid of tickets the day of the show for less given the much greater supply of tickets to the general public.

 

[wolfwill23]

Nope.

 

[wolfwill23]

From the looks of their stage set up, I don't see a lot of overhead (no cutting edge ZOOTV or world's largest LED) so maybe they'll be able to lower the prices and fill the stadiums.

 

[thefly1979]

Tickets will be easy to come by this tour in the USA. Obviously Chicago, Boston, New York, Toronto will be strong but I would be very surprised with new dates added for any stadium considering the economic conditions.

As far as their CD sales, by comparsion when Coldplay’s “Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends" topped the U.S. pop chart with sales of 721,000 copies in June 2008, the title cut was on its way to hitting No. 1 on the U.S. singles charts.

U2 doesn't have the star power of an anthem like Viva on this record. So 484,000 is solid but nowhere near their last release or Coldplay's, but more similar to their earlier album releases.

to compare coldplay and U2 isn´t possible. the economy, the leak and the fact that album sales decrease more and more hitting NLOTH in a full hard way. but as many hear told...around 500.000 in the US in it´s first week is not a flop or disappointing.

teens do not buy this cd. U2 isn´t a band with a big young crowd anymore. but thats not bad, and i think they did not expect to get the same album sells than with HTAAB where they had a commercial with apple and many more things to hype it up. don´t forget the great brooklyn bridge appereance in NYC which catch more attention then the whole promo week with letterman, boston etc. and how many young people watch letterman?

anyway..i know this is a bit off topic here. as for the upcoming tour, i think they will sell out some stadiums but definetly not all of them. i´m from europe and they can expect to sell out all shows here and ad some extra dates more, because they also sold out the vertigo stadium tour here. or most of the shows.

depeche mode is also doing a stadium only tour her, and they haven´t released their album yet. but you can buy tickets since weeks. so i also don´t think that U2 will sell out the stadiums here in a few minutes like the last tour. thats not possible. they aren´t ac/dc who did this. but only because they aren´t around for such a long time.

so we can expect that it needs more time to sell tickets which is good for all fans who need time to decide where they want to go.

 

[pudgie_child]

40% of the tickets being sold at these stadium shows are $55 dollars or less.

I don't think that is accurate.

10% of the shows will be sold for $30, but only the field GA tickets will be sold for $55, based on what I've read; and there will be space only for a few thousand on the field (not 30% of the ticket holders).

 

[4U2Play]

Since when is selling out two shows in Glendale considered "weak demand"? Just because scalpers can't get rid of their tickets right before the show does not mean demand is "weak". The majority of fans who would like to attend a show but can't get tickets through normal channels do not show up the day of the show attempting to buy from scalpers.

You keep claiming that all these mysterious tens of thousands of U2 fans who supposedly could not get tickets on the Vertigo Tour will now show up and fill all the seats for the 360 Tour. Do you have an appoximate number of fans nationwide who couldn't get Vertigo tickets? Where did you get that information?

I don't know a single U2 fan who ended up getting shut out of a show they wanted to attend. One way or another, they all got in. I know fans who attended 40 shows, and many others who attended 20-30 shows. They never had a problem getting tickets for face price, even for tough shows like Boston and Portland. How many fans do you know personally tried to go to a Vertigo concert but couldn't get tickets and stayed home instead?

The fact that GAs for Glendale were selling for peanuts does indicate weak demand, or else those tickets would have been selling for a much higher amount. This is basic economics, isn't it. The biggest band in the world not selling out two arena shows without a big assist from scalpers who bought too many tickets indicates weak demand by U2's standards.

Selling 40,000 tickets in Phoenix for two arena shows in the middle of a booming local economy in 2005 is no doubt an achievement for any band, even if a certain percentage of those tickets were bought by repeat customers, bought on the secondary market for well-below face value or eaten by resellers, but I don't believe that translates into the 80,000 tickets U2 will need to sell in order to fill Phoenix Stadium in the middle of an economic meltdown, the likes of which Greater Phoenix has never seen before.

Yes, U2 considered those Glendale tickets "sold out", but scalpers took a bath on those gigs. That's weak demand for U2, and I suspect brokers won't make the same mistake with the Phoenix show this time around.

 

[Morgoth321]

The thing that's really surprised me so far is the pessimism surrounding U2's return to N American stadiums. Maybe I'm being naive, and obviously the world has changed since 2005, but the demand for U2 tickets for Vertigo in N America was such that I would've thought they could sell out pretty much any venue - anywhere. That still seems to be the case with reference to the rest of the world, so why should N America be any different?

This is a serious question, not an attempt at bashing US concert-goers. Since Elevation and Vertigo played lots of arenas across a geographically wide area, could it be that fans in N America have become a little complacent in (relatively speaking) not having to travel such great distances to see concerts? Perhaps I'm making too much of a connection here, but a lot of the pessimism about the new dates seems to be linked to there not being scheduled shows in 'obvious' cities / regions. In other words, it's as if people are thinking "They're not coming near me, so I'm not prepared to / can't afford to travel a bit further afield, or I'll wait until 2010 when they're bound to tour more extensively" etc. I know that fans on this site are clearly more than casual in terms of interest and commitment, and so it's not fair to generalise. But, if so many people seem willing to travel from N America to Europe (specifically Dublin) to see U2, would they be equally prepared to travel a bit further within the continental US? I don't know, just throwing it out there.

The thing is (and this will be a gross generalisation), even though the economic situation has affected many of us, there's still plenty of wealthy people out there who can afford any ticket prices. Then there's the truly dedicated fans who WILL risk personal financial meltdown in order to see their favourite band. Under those circumstances, rational common sense goes out the window. I'm always amazed and in awe of people who will fly across oceans and arrive at a city with nowhere to stay, then spend many hours queuing in a GA line, in order to get to the very front for a concert that won't last much more than two hours. Plenty of people will do that. It's like the new Michael Jackson shows. As a performing artist, he's clearly a very questionable quantity now, yet his fans are still utterly captivated by the mere promise of his live comeback.

I think the US dates as we have them now will sell out, but just not as quickly as U2 shows have sold out in the past. (For comparison, didn't Paul McCartney sell out a Las Vegas show in 7 seconds yesterday? I know the capacity was only 4000 or something, but I'm sure his ticket prices were a lot heftier than U2's.)

 

[pudgie_child]

This is a serious question, not an attempt at bashing US concert-goers. Since Elevation and Vertigo played lots of arenas across a geographically wide area, could it be that fans in N America have become a little complacent in (relatively speaking) not having to travel such great distances to see concerts? Perhaps I'm making too much of a connection here, but a lot of the pessimism about the new dates seems to be linked to there not being scheduled shows in 'obvious' cities / regions. In other words, it's as if people are thinking "They're not coming near me, so I'm not prepared to / can't afford to travel a bit further afield, or I'll wait until 2010 when they're bound to tour more extensively" etc. I know that fans on this site are clearly more than casual in terms of interest and commitment, and so it's not fair to generalise. But, if so many people seem willing to travel from N America to Europe (specifically Dublin) to see U2, would they be equally prepared to travel a bit further within the continental US? I don't know, just throwing it out there.

In 2009 U2 will be playing only 10 of the 20 largest markets in the United States.

(Table of United States primary census statistical areas - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

Assuming that the retracted tour itinerary is accurate, the band will be skipping population centers like Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Miami, and yet has scheduled shows in Norman, OK and Charlottesville, VA (and maybe Raleigh, NC).

Part of the reason for touring is to maintain your fan base. If a band is not willing to travel to places where people live, it should not be a surprise if ticket sales suffer.

Hopefully the band has come to its senses and is altering the itinerary after East Rutherford, NJ . . . but I doubt it.

 

[4U2Play]

The thing that's really surprised me so far is the pessimism surrounding U2's return to N American stadiums....

You're very diplomatic, Morgoth, but I agree: North American U2 fans are spoiled.

That's what happens when your favorite band plays 15 arena shows within 3 hours' driving distance of your house (if you live in the northeast).

Paul McCartney selling 4000 tickets in 7 seconds for a Vegas show cannot be compared to U2 having to sell 80,000 cheaper ducats in Phoenix. You can bet that a large percentage of those McCartney tickets were snatched up by brokers, who will probably make a killing scalping those things to rich, 60 year old Beatles fans who were smart enough to move their 401Ks to cash in October 2007, but missed the McCartney onsale because they were too slow in typing the captcha words.

 

[God Part III]

I don't see how they can't sell out.
Its their best album in ages and every available ticket on the Vertigo tour sold out.

Seriously, if they don't sell out, U2 should just stop touring the US.

 

[4U2Play]

I don't see how they can't sell out.
Its their best album in ages and every available ticket on the Vertigo tour sold out.

Seriously, if they don't sell out, U2 should just stop touring the US.

Yeah, and only play in Ireland and Denmark

 

[God Part III]

Yeah, and only play in Ireland and Denmark

I would like that

I'm joking of course, but they better sell out. You get way more shows than us, earn it!

 

[Morgoth321]

You're very diplomatic, Morgoth, but I agree: North American U2 fans are spoiled.

That's what happens when your favorite band plays 15 arena shows within 3 hours' driving distance of your house (if you live in the northeast).

Paul McCartney selling 4000 tickets in 7 seconds for a Vegas show cannot be compared to U2 having to sell 80,000 cheaper ducats in Phoenix. You can bet that a large percentage of those McCartney tickets were snatched up by brokers, who will probably make a killing scalping those things to rich, 60 year old Beatles fans who were smart enough to move their 401Ks to cash in October 2007, but missed the McCartney onsale because they were too slow in typing the captcha words.

The McCartney example was only mentioned because it was fresh in my mind. I fully agree with your point about the scalping that's bound to happen, but I think I also brought it up as an example of how people still have lots of money to spend / waste on something as trivial as a concert by an ex-Beatle. He's becoming part of that complacent tranche of artists who know that they can charge anything they like for concert tickets, and don't seem affected by economic circumstances (like the Stones, Eagles, Madonna, Barbra Streisand, Bette Midler etc). How much more money do people really need?

At least U2, to be fair to them, have made some attempt to address their fans' personal situations - whether they succeed or not is down to personal opinion, but at least they recognise that this isn't a boom time any more. You suspect that some of the other artists I mentioned go out on tour with the hope of setting / breaking attendance or gross receipts records, but I honestly don't believe that U2 care so much about this. I think that if they fill the venues and the tour turns a profit, that's good enough for them.