Why will the republicans win in 2008?

[phillyfan26]

Off-Topic: Quick question - Is it Hilary or Hillary? I have no idea.

I think Hilary and Bill agree on most issues anyway, but I think Hilary's the type of person who wants to be her own person. Certainly she'll have advisors and such, but I think she'd try to keep Bill out of it.

Really, though, it's all just speculation.

[Canadiens1131]

The Republicans will win if Clinton gets the Democratic nomination.

[U2democrat]

^Unfortunately I believe that is true.

I'm not so optimistic about the Democrats chances this year.

[maycocksean]

Originally posted by 2861U2
As one of the minority Republicans here, I feel pretty confident about the GOP in 2008, for a number of reasons.

Iraq: As stated before, Iraq has improved drastically in the past year. The surge has been successful, and the deathtoll is at its lowest since the war began. This could and will help the Republicans, especially McCain and Giuliani. I noticed someone in the other thread say that the public doesnt care about Iraq, and that is nonsense. If anything, the public is not informed of the current status due to the lack of positive reporting by irresponsible media. The Bhutto assassination put the War on Terror on the front pages again. My dad said something the other day that I agree with. He said "That just goes to show that Al-Qaeda, if they really wanted to, could take out absolutely anybody." If most Americans have that mindset, I think that definetely benefits the Republicans.

Taxes: On this particular issue, I do not understand why every single person does not favor the GOP. I don't know much about economics, but I do know that I'm pretty sure most Americans want to keep as much money as possible. The Democrats want to end the tax cuts (which, by the way, EVERYONE gets- not just the rich), which will have the effect of a tax increase. Do Americans honestly want the government (particularly this irresponisble, spending-obsessed Congress) to have more of their hard earned money? Do Americans honestly think that they aren't paying the government enough? It baffles me. In shaky economic times, I don't think that can help.

The Clinton factor: I've said it before and I'll say it again. I hope Hillary is our opponent next year. I'm confident that the American people will, after studying her, want to get away from the Clinton machine. Hopefully they have enough sense to not allow Bill back in the White House. There was a poll out recently asking who people want to prevent from becoming president, and Hillary "won" with 40%. With a number like that, and unfavorable ratings at 50-some percent, I just cannot see how she can win.

The 2006 elections: I think the 2006 Democratic victories may be a blessing in disguise for the Republicans. I believe people will look at Congress and their complete lack of accomplishment and reject having more of the same. These people were elected with promises of change, and they have delivered zero. Suddenly Bush's approval rating doesn't seem so laughable when you look at Congress' hovering in the low teens at best.

So, basically, I'm not too worried at all right now. If McCain is the nominee (:Pray: ), I would say that the Republicans may even be the favorite. McCain beats Hillary in most polls I've seen, and would certainly attract more independents.

ETA: I think it would help if Ron Paul ran as a third-party, as he would take votes away from Hillary regarding the war. Sounds like he doesn't plan on it, but you never know.

I disagree with virtually every one of these arguments, except in one regard. I think they will resonate with enough Americans that the Republicans will win the White House. You may disagree wtih his politics but 2861U2's analysis of the mood of many people in this country is spot on.

It's a real shame.

[BonosSaint]

I don't think we're counting our eggs yet. But I think there are factors that hurt the Republicans:

1. The war.
2. Not too many people care two figs about income tax. Now if
they were running locally and making a promise on lowering
property tax, that would probably be a platform.
3. Other than possibly the Cubans, the Republicans can pretty
much wave bye-bye to the bulk of the Hispanic vote.
4. I suspect the evangelicals will vote Republican, but unless
you end up with Huckabee, I don't think you will have that
energized, organized drive of the past.

The Democrats have a problem because:

1. They have no freaking vision and no clear policy.
2. Since they caved over pretty much every Iraq War and War
on Terror vote, they are increasingly more responsible and
I don't think they can walk away from that. They became
enablers.
3. They will cannibalize each other.
4. They haven't learned that running against Bush isn't enough.

And yeah, I think McCain has a shot.

[2861U2]

I thought of another reason why I think the GOP might win- the 2004 election. In the months leading up the election, Bush had about a 50% approval rating (better than today, but still not super great), and Iraq wasn't going as well as planned. Despite the negatives, Bush somehow still attracted and convinced America. I don't think Bush won just because Kerry was a bad candidate.

Actually, I distinctly remember being almost certain that we would lose, but I ended up being wrong. So if I ever get worried or frustrated this coming year, I'll think back to 2004

[Irvine511]

Originally posted by 2861U2
[B]

Taxes: On this particular issue, I do not understand why every single person does not favor the GOP. I don't know much about economics, but I do know that I'm pretty sure most Americans want to keep as much money as possible.

do you like roads? schools? a military? programs that put kids in after school programs instead of running around the street in the afternoon? how about tunnels? bridges that don't collapse?

all of this is brought to you by your tax money.

if you don't want to pay taxes, fine, but just as creationist must give back his opposable thumbs, so must the anti-tax guy never drive on the interstate.




[q]So, basically, I'm not too worried at all right now. If McCain is the nominee (:Pray: ), I would say that the Republicans may even be the favorite. McCain beats Hillary in most polls I've seen, and would certainly attract more independents.[/q]

woah! i thought you were all about Rudy! then it was Thompson! then Huck! now McCain? even with his immigration stance? even with his distance from the Christian right? even with his "maverick" status? even though the base of the party hates him?

why the change of heart?

[BVS]

Originally posted by 2861U2

Iraq: As stated before, Iraq has improved drastically in the past year. The surge has been successful, and the deathtoll is at its lowest since the war began.

If the deathtoll wasn't at it's lowest after a surge and this long of a war, we would have THE worst failure known to mankind. So instead of having THE worst failure, we just have one of the biggest failures.

Seriously, if anyone looks at Iraq now as a voting point for the GOP should really have their head checked.

Originally posted by 2861U2

Taxes: On this particular issue, I do not understand why every single person does not favor the GOP. I don't know much about economics, but I do know that I'm pretty sure most Americans want to keep as much money as possible. The Democrats want to end the tax cuts (which, by the way, EVERYONE gets- not just the rich), which will have the effect of a tax increase. Do Americans honestly want the government (particularly this irresponisble, spending-obsessed Congress) to have more of their hard earned money? Do Americans honestly think that they aren't paying the government enough? It baffles me. In shaky economic times, I don't think that can help.

I agree. You don't know much about economics.

You're just falling for the fuzzy math that the GOP has been selling for years. Yet they love defecit spending.

[2861U2]

Originally posted by Irvine511


woah! i thought you were all about Rudy! then it was Thompson! then Huck! now McCain? even with his immigration stance? even with his distance from the Christian right? even with his "maverick" status? even though the base of the party hates him?

why the change of heart?

Well, first off, neither Thompson nor Huckabee have ever been my first choices. It's been Rudy up until now. Right now I'm torn between him and McCain. McCain definitely has the best chance of winning, and I'm not sure where you get that the base hates him. Also, on immigration, my brother told me that McCain "heard us loud and clear", so I'll take him at his word.

[2861U2]

Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar


Seriously, if anyone looks at Iraq now as a voting point for the GOP should really have their head checked.

I can say the same thing about the Democrats. They have absolutely no credibility regarding the war. This is the party that brought us....

"As far as setting a timeline, that's not a wise decision because it only empowers those who don't want us there." -Harry Reid

"A deadline for pulling out will only encourage our enemies to wait us out. It would be a Lebanon 1985, and God only knows where it goes from there." - Joe Biden

"I don't believe it's smart to set a date for withdrawal. I don't think you should ever telegraph your intentions to the enemy so they can await you." -Hillary Clinton

"A hard, fast, arbitrary deadline for withdrawal offers our commanders in the field and our diplomats in the region insufficient flexibility to implement that strategy." -Barack Obama

If I'm the Republican nominee, I'm milking these quotes for all they're worth.

[U2DMfan]

Originally posted by 2861U2
I thought of another reason why I think the GOP might win- the 2004 election. In the months leading up the election, Bush had about a 50% approval rating (better than today, but still not super great), and Iraq wasn't going as well as planned. Despite the negatives, Bush somehow still attracted and convinced America. I don't think Bush won just because Kerry was a bad candidate.

Actually, I distinctly remember being almost certain that we would lose, but I ended up being wrong. So if I ever get worried or frustrated this coming year, I'll think back to 2004

Bush won in 2004 because of two major reasons, neither had a single thing to do with Kerry. You won't hear that from the Dems though, they've got to be able to blame Kerry or Gore for that matter for being less-than-stellar candidates otherwise they might have to admit that the majority of Americans are not in league with their positions.

Clinton was elected twice and despite what the Limbaugh crowd likes to say about Bill or even Hillary for that matter, they are moderates. Hillary was a Goldwater Girl for goodness sake. Bill compromised quite a bit with Republicans, he had a Rep Secretary of Defense on and on. They were and are not even close to the Leftists that some think.

Anyways, it's pretty simple folks, the two reasons Bush won the election in 2004 were because enough Americans still supported the war (gasp) and didn't want to "cut and run"=highly effective slogan and the other being that in those swing States (remember Kerry was one big State from victory) the Rep National Party got the Gay Marriage vote on the ballot (Ohio for sure and maybe Florida? I don't remember exactly) and turned out a LOT of self-justified and bigoted Evangelicals.

The Republicans win in 2008 if they can make it an issue of John Wayne vs Jane Fonda all over again. On those culture issues the Reps are in the majority and the Dems can't win certain States without a true moderate.

The General Election (President) is usually a pretty simple race. It just takes a long time to figure out what those simple issues will eventually be.

On Hillary and her negatives, one thing you will never hear from the Bushie crowd:

Look it up, Bush had negatives in the 46-48% range in late October 2004 and won the election.

Depending on the general support of 3rd parties, you obviously don't need 50% of the vote to win the election. You just have to win enough big States. Bush got a little above his approval rating at the time.

It's going to be a tight race anyways. The biggest difference to me is that Obama is CLEARLY in the "get out now" crowd on Iraq and if he's the nominee and things continue to improve= hello John Wayne vs jane Fonda and 4 more years of big business moralizing cowboys.

[U2DMfan]

Originally posted by 2861U2


If I'm the Republican nominee, I'm milking these quotes for all they're worth.

Do you think that those quotes in any way could outweigh the enormity of the 'Bush Failure' noose hanging around each and every Republican candidate, all in bed with Bush, not a single one of them distancing themselves from him?

He's the biggest negative on any side.

[BVS]

Originally posted by 2861U2



If I'm the Republican nominee, I'm milking these quotes for all they're worth.

These are just quotes(most of which I'm not even sure your point of posting them was) but the Republican party as a whole has a huge failure on their hands.

They've back it no matter what. Whereas the Democrats at least started to question 'what are we doing here'.

They were the ones in charge during most of this failure.

A little quote means nothing compared to the failure on their hands.

[financeguy]

Originally posted by 2861U2
As one of the minority Republicans here, I feel pretty confident about the GOP in 2008, for a number of reasons.

Iraq: As stated before, Iraq has improved drastically in the past year. The surge has been successful, and the deathtoll is at its lowest since the war began. This could and will help the Republicans, especially McCain and Giuliani. I noticed someone in the other thread say that the public doesnt care about Iraq, and that is nonsense. If anything, the public is not informed of the current status due to the lack of positive reporting by irresponsible media. The Bhutto assassination put the War on Terror on the front pages again. My dad said something the other day that I agree with. He said "That just goes to show that Al-Qaeda, if they really wanted to, could take out absolutely anybody." If most Americans have that mindset, I think that definetely benefits the Republicans.

Taxes: On this particular issue, I do not understand why every single person does not favor the GOP. I don't know much about economics, but I do know that I'm pretty sure most Americans want to keep as much money as possible. The Democrats want to end the tax cuts (which, by the way, EVERYONE gets- not just the rich), which will have the effect of a tax increase. Do Americans honestly want the government (particularly this irresponisble, spending-obsessed Congress) to have more of their hard earned money? Do Americans honestly think that they aren't paying the government enough? It baffles me. In shaky economic times, I don't think that can help.

The Clinton factor: I've said it before and I'll say it again. I hope Hillary is our opponent next year. I'm confident that the American people will, after studying her, want to get away from the Clinton machine. Hopefully they have enough sense to not allow Bill back in the White House. There was a poll out recently asking who people want to prevent from becoming president, and Hillary "won" with 40%. With a number like that, and unfavorable ratings at 50-some percent, I just cannot see how she can win.

The 2006 elections: I think the 2006 Democratic victories may be a blessing in disguise for the Republicans. I believe people will look at Congress and their complete lack of accomplishment and reject having more of the same. These people were elected with promises of change, and they have delivered zero. Suddenly Bush's approval rating doesn't seem so laughable when you look at Congress' hovering in the low teens at best.

So, basically, I'm not too worried at all right now. If McCain is the nominee (:Pray: ), I would say that the Republicans may even be the favorite. McCain beats Hillary in most polls I've seen, and would certainly attract more independents.

ETA: I think it would help if Ron Paul ran as a third-party, as he would take votes away from Hillary regarding the war. Sounds like he doesn't plan on it, but you never know.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4w9EksAo5hY

[Irvine511]

Originally posted by 2861U2


I can say the same thing about the Democrats. They have absolutely no credibility regarding the war. This is the party that brought us....

"As far as setting a timeline, that's not a wise decision because it only empowers those who don't want us there." -Harry Reid

"A deadline for pulling out will only encourage our enemies to wait us out. It would be a Lebanon 1985, and God only knows where it goes from there." - Joe Biden

"I don't believe it's smart to set a date for withdrawal. I don't think you should ever telegraph your intentions to the enemy so they can await you." -Hillary Clinton

"A hard, fast, arbitrary deadline for withdrawal offers our commanders in the field and our diplomats in the region insufficient flexibility to implement that strategy." -Barack Obama

If I'm the Republican nominee, I'm milking these quotes for all they're worth.

all of the Democratic front runners think we will be in Iraq well into 2009.

most people don't want to walk out right now, but most people don't think a 15 year or more occupation is the correct course of action.

you're doing what Strongbow/STING does, which is take a minority position amongst a minority of people, and pretending that this speaks for everyone and anyone who disagrees with you. i think a pullout tomorrow would be disastrous. but i think a long term occupation is even worse.

[2861U2]

Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar


These are just quotes(most of which I'm not even sure your point of posting them was) but the Republican party as a whole has a huge failure on their hands.

They've back it no matter what. Whereas the Democrats at least started to question 'what are we doing here'.

They were the ones in charge during most of this failure.

A little quote means nothing compared to the failure on their hands.

That's another thing. You use the word "failure" three times here. I don't think a majority of people view Iraq as a "huge failure," regardless of whether they think we should be there now or not.

I sure hope those quotes and facts like them are used in the general campaign. The Democrats are going to have a hard time explaining how it was dangerous to leave back then, but somehow it isn't dangerous now. The Republicans have stuck with the war when it was popular and when it was unpopular, unlike the Democrats who go with whichever way the wind is blowing.

I honestly don't understand how a quote means nothing, in your mind. You really think there isn't a single thing wrong about Hillary warning against a withdrawal date back then, but now being in total support of one?

[Irvine511]

when has Hillary called for a withdrawal date?

a withdrawal is one thing -- even Bush wants to start reducing troops once he gets enough coverage from "the surge" -- but she has not mentioned a specific date to withdraw by.

most of us are concerned by the size of the US embassy being built over there and the groundwork that has been laid for a long term occupation in the heart of the most instable region in the world that will do nothing but breed more hatred and swallow billions and billions more into a cesspool of ethnic hatred that's quickly devolving. the best thing we can do is get off their oil and move on to other things -- like the actual "war on terror," for lack of a better term -- rather than incur the debt, loss of morale at home and inspiration of rage abroad that a long term occupation of Iraq/Mesopotamia/the Middle East would entail.

an endless military and economic commitment to Iraq makes no sense, unless you're willing to say that, yes, we are there to secure the oil. but i'd respond by saying that the only rational response to oil dependence is to get ourselves off the junk rather than have our very own Afghanistan that will surely rot the US from within just as surely as it brought down the Soviet Empire.

[financeguy]

Originally posted by 2861U2


That's another thing. You use the word "failure" three times here. I don't think a majority of people view Iraq as a "huge failure," regardless of whether they think we should be there now or not.

I sure hope those quotes and facts like them are used in the general campaign. The Democrats are going to have a hard time explaining how it was dangerous to leave back then, but somehow it isn't dangerous now. The Republicans have stuck with the war when it was popular and when it was unpopular, unlike the Democrats who go with whichever way the wind is blowing.

I honestly don't understand how a quote means nothing, in your mind. You really think there isn't a single thing wrong about Hillary warning against a withdrawal date back then, but now being in total support of one?

Date of birth: January 29, 1988

You're old enough, why haven't you enlisted then?

Explain yourself, neo-con.

[Dreadsox]

So let me understand this. I create two threads, one for people to state why they think either side will win.

Yet we have to attack attack taunt.

THis place has really deteriorated.

Come on now.

[financeguy]

Originally posted by Dreadsox
So let me understand this. I create two threads, one for people to state why they think either side will win.

Yet we have to attack attack taunt.

THis place has really deteriorated.

Come on now.