Why will the Democrats win in 2008?

[Dreadsox]

Thoughts?

I believe America may be looking for someone that is somewhat of a Washington outsider with fresh ideas. My gut tells me that Obama is the candidate with the best shot at beating the Republican candidate. I think he is showing that he is a shrewd campaigner, capable of standing up to the best of them.

 

[anitram]

The Dems are anti-war but it doesn't matter anymore, because the public honestly doesn't care. They've moved on to other, domestic issues. On that front, the only thing the Republicans seem to be crowing about is immigration. Not enough to win an election.

Plus, the Republican party will self-destruct from within. They are splitting off into factions, which only helps the Dems.

 

[phillyfan26]

Because people are becoming sick of the GOP, I imagine.

 

[U2democrat]

The Dems are anti-war but it doesn't matter anymore, because the public honestly doesn't care.

What makes you think this?

The public is fatigued yes, but to say they don't care is just plain wrong.

 

[redhotswami]

the public honestly doesn't care. They've moved on to other, domestic issues.

No, not really. Actually, from what I've encountered much of their frustrations about how this war is being carried out is incorporated in more conversations. We're tired of our friends/family/or ourselves getting sent back over and over again...and for what? This public is tired of this crap, yes, but they sure as hell have not stopped caring, especially when so many are affected.

 

[U2democrat]

Anyway, the Dems will win if the American people are fed up with 8 years of Republican rule in the WH.

 

[redhotswami]

I also predict that the next president (who will be democrat) will serve two terms. You know, just to fit the pattern

 

[Dreadsox]

What makes you think this?

The public is fatigued yes, but to say they don't care is just plain wrong.

I absolutely agree with you. There is not a person I have spoken with about this election that has not mentioned the war either in a positive way or a negative one.

 

[anitram]

I meant more that it is no longer the driving issue the way it was in the 2006 elections - nothing to do with not caring about say, the troops in the field. Although if we're being honest I think there is a very large apathetic portion of the population which frankly gives the troops pretty much zero thought.

At this point, the fatalities are down, but I don't think the war is being won politically at all. It's like slapping on a band aid. The public cares about secondary things related to the war - ie. the budget, spending, and so on, not the day to day happenings, they way they did before the last midterms.

 

[redhotswami]

Although if we're being honest I think there is a very large apathetic portion of the population which frankly gives the troops pretty much zero thought.

Can you offer examples for this point? Support for the troops is everywhere I turn. I find this quite surprising. There's loads of local groups in the community that send care packages regularly, more cars have the "support our troops" magnets/stickers than any other sticker I see, and they get special prayers offered in every church I've been to. They get even airtime on the local tv giving shout-outs to their families. Anytime a soldier from the community returns home, or is killed, it is a big deal. I don't know anybody who says they don't care for the troops.

Unless of course this population you are talking about is the administration. In that case, I agree wholeheartedly

 

[anitram]

I don't know anybody who says they don't care for the troops.

But that isn't what I've said. I said that there is a large group who gives them no thought. That's quite something different. I mean that there are many people who don't know anyone who is enlisted or in Iraq and their daily lives are not affected by worry or anything other than reading about it in the paper. We have about a dozen exchange students from the US here (from schools in LA, Washington, Virginia and Ohio), and just in chatting with them about political stuff I often asked if they had family members in Iraq and so on. They didn't, although one knew somebody from their high school who was in Afghanistan. One had a yellow ribbon on their car, but told me that her Dad had bought it for her and that to be honest, she didn't much think about Iraq at all except around the election time. The sense from the rest of them was pretty much the same - they liked going out, they liked going snowboarding, most didn't care about politics at all (I doubt they were even voters), and I can bet my bank account that the safety of the troops likely didn't enter most of their minds once in the last month. They seemed completely detached from the political process.

That doesn't mean that they'd say they don't care about the troops. I bet if you asked them, they would - they're human and young and have empathy for their peers. But day to day? They sure had other things on their mind.

 

[Dreadsox]

But that isn't what I've said. I said that there is a large group who gives them no thought. That's quite something different. I mean that there are many people who don't know anyone who is enlisted or in Iraq and their daily lives are not affected by worry or anything other than reading about it in the paper.

Do you think they are voters? If they are this out of touch will they be voting? I hope not.

 

[anitram]

Do you think they are voters? If they are this out of touch will they be voting? I hope not.

I didn't ask them but I got the sense some of them weren't voters and didn't care. Although sometimes I wonder whether people like that will go vote on their campus anyway, because everyone else is doing it?

 

[redhotswami]

i don't think that a dozen exchange students are in any way a microcosm of a society. you're using a small sample and said there was a "large apathetic portion of the population" based on that sample which is very controlled. from what i've seen, i don't believe that many people are so apathetic.

 

[anitram]

i don't think that a dozen exchange students are in any way a microcosm of a society. you're using a small sample and said there was a "large apathetic portion of the population" based on that sample which is very controlled.

Well you're certainly welcome to disagree. It's a small sample but I don't think they are somehow completely out there and the majority of people thinks about the troops in Iraq on a daily basis. After the election in November you will come here and wonder again, perhaps in mild outrage, why half the people in your country didn't vote. Well, if that's not proof of a large apathetic portion of the population, I'm not sure what better one there is.

 

[redhotswami]

Voter turnout was low before and during the Iraq war. In your original post, you said that the public have moved on from the war. I'm saying they have not. The low voter turnout is an overall lack of faith in politics/politicians for many reasons. Not because the public has "has moved on from the war" or due to any one single issue.

Also you say that you don't think the majority of people think about Iraq on a daily basis, and I still disagree. I invite you to watch a local news network. Over here in DC we have NBC4: http://www.nbc4.com/ Even now when you click on the link you'll see a handful of related Iraq stories. Every day there is something about it covered. It really is everywhere here.

Anyway, sorry to derail your thread, Dread. I'll go back to my little corner now

 

[coemgen]

They will win because Barack Obama is the man.

 

[coemgen]

Actually, not only will they win because of Obama's sheer awesomeness, but Ron Paul will run as an independent, taking away a good chunck of the Republican vote.

 

[maycocksean]

They will win because Barack Obama is the man.

Do you really think he'll be able to wrest the nomination from Hillary? She's a pretty formidable force and I really don't see her withering any time soon.

We'll see what happens in Iowa Thursday though. . .

 

[coemgen]

Yes, I do.

 

[watergate]

Exchange students can't vote because they aren't U.S. citizens.

 

[watergate]

I hope that its not Hilary I won't campaign for her.
Unico where do you get your information about low voter turn out? According to the U.S. census bureau in 2004 sixty-four percent of U.S. citizens age 18 and over voted in the 2004 presidential election. It would have been more had the Republicans not pulled their dirty tricks such as voter caging, which is illegal.

 

[phillyfan26]

Exchange students can't vote because they aren't U.S. citizens.

I think these were US students in Canada.

 

[LPU2]

Do you really think he'll be able to wrest the nomination from Hillary? She's a pretty formidable force and I really don't see her withering any time soon.

We'll see what happens in Iowa Thursday though. . .

He has to win Iowa and New Hampshire to generate enough buzz to overcome Hillary elsewhere. It'll be tight but possible.

But if he's the nominee, he will be the next President. Here's why.

3. Party Enthusiasm. He'll get democrats out in record numbers. Young voters and black voters will turn out like they never have before.

2. Bipartisan Appeal. He'll draw a substantial majority of independent voters. Independents voted 65% for dems in the 2006 midterms. Unlike Hillary, he'll be able to at least hold that number. There are even republicans who will vote for Obama. You can't say that about Hillary.

1. GOP Indifference. Unlike Hillary, Obama won't inspire an aggressive GOP/evangelical campaign against him. The midterms showed that a lot of GOP voters are disappointed and disillusioned right now. More than is typical will just stay home...that is, unless Hillary's the nominee.

 

[verte76]

They will win because people are fed up with Bush and company. The question is, if Hillary gets the nomination, will people vote for a woman? If Obama gets the nomination, will people get over their prejudices?

 

[2861U2]

It would have been more had the Republicans not pulled their dirty tricks such as voter caging, which is illegal.

You know what else is illegal? Folks from the Kerry/Edwards campaign going around slashing people's tires.

 

[maycocksean]

He has to win Iowa and New Hampshire to generate enough buzz to overcome Hillary elsewhere. It'll be tight but possible.

But if he's the nominee, he will be the next President. Here's why.

3. Party Enthusiasm. He'll get democrats out in record numbers. Young voters and black voters will turn out like they never have before.

2. Bipartisan Appeal. He'll draw a substantial majority of independent voters. Independents voted 65% for dems in the 2006 midterms. Unlike Hillary, he'll be able to at least hold that number. There are even republicans who will vote for Obama. You can't say that about Hillary.

1. GOP Indifference. Unlike Hillary, Obama won't inspire an aggressive GOP/evangelical campaign against him. The midterms showed that a lot of GOP voters are disappointed and disillusioned right now. More than is typical will just stay home...that is, unless Hillary's the nominee.

I hope you're right. I think Hillary Clinton would do a great job as president, but I don't want her to get the nomination because, as I've already stated, I don't think she can win. There is a very strong undercurrent of dislike for Hillary Clinton in this country (see 2861U2's comments on her for an example of what I mean) and the Republicans will milk that for all it's worth. I like Obama, but even he will have an uphill battle. I disagree that the Republicans won't turn their venom on him if he's nominated. They will, and I fully expect that we will see highly sophisticated attacks that will play upon the latent racist fears of the Rush crowd.

 

[2861U2]

They will, and I fully expect that we will see highly sophisticated attacks that will play upon the latent racist fears of the Rush crowd.

I would be careful here. I don't think most of the "Rush crowd" are racists. I don't like Obama for a number of reasons, but the color of his skin has absolutely nothing to do with it.

 

[Diemen]

Are you denying that there are people who would never vote for him because he's black?

 

[2861U2]

Are you denying that there are people who would never vote for him because he's black?

No, not at all. I'm sure there are. But I'm also confident that most of Rush's audience are not racists.