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Democratic Voters' Fervor
Stirs Republican Worries
By JONATHAN KAUFMAN, ALEX FRANGOS and AMY CHOZICK
December 31, 2007; Page A1
As presidential hopefuls from both parties rally support across Iowa ahead of Thursday's caucuses, Democratic voters are showing greater fervor for the race than their Republican counterparts, a difference that could have repercussions throughout the 2008 campaign.
At its simplest, there is a political energy gap. Democrats appear to be more fired up about their party nominating contest than are Republicans. Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire have been turning out at rallies in greater numbers than Republicans and giving more money to candidates. In Iowa, polls indicate Democrats will be attending the Thursday night caucuses in record numbers.
"There seems to be a little more juice on the Democratic side," says Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
"Republicans have a lot of work to do to get to the intensity level Democrats are at today," agrees Terry Nelson, a Republican strategist who previously headed the campaign of Arizona Sen. John McCain
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Some Republicans also worry that they could end up having trouble rallying around their party's eventual nominee, a problem faced in recent years by the often-fractious Democrats. This time, by contrast, Democratic voters nationally are telling pollsters they like their field of candidates better than Republicans say they like theirs.
Mr. McInturff compares this year's Democrats to the Republicans in 2000 -- the last time the presidential race was contested in both parties. "Republican primary voters were very cranked up because Bill Clinton put their teeth on edge, and they couldn't wait to elect a new president," he says.
While acknowledging that Republicans seem to be lagging by several measures, many party insiders say all the party needs to galvanize its voters is time -- and the right candidate.
"I just had someone tell me that if we can get Mike Huckabee back here we could get 1,500 people," says Bob Vander Plaats, Mr. Huckabee's Iowa chairman, after an event in Davenport that attracted a standing-room-only crowd of 100 people.
Mr. McCain has also been drawing more enthusiastic Republican crowds in recent days in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
More Passion
Democratic voters are showing more passion for the race in part due to frustration that their party has been out of the White House for eight years. But their fervor also reflects their general approval of the party's three front-runners. Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards, who are locked in a tight battle in Iowa, New Hampshire and elsewhere, broadly agree on most important issues. That suggests that their supporters would unite around the eventual nominee.
By contrast the Republican field is deeply divided, with candidates attacking each other over social issues, tax policies and immigration.
Asked if they could support a Democratic candidate "with enthusiasm" in November, as opposed to "with reservations," or depending on the opponent, half of Democratic voters say they could support Mrs. Clinton enthusiastically, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll. Almost the same number said they could support Mr. Obama enthusiastically and 36% Mr. Edwards.
Among Republicans, the top-rated candidate is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, with 35 % of Republican voters saying they could back him enthusiastically. Keenness for the other Republican candidates trails off after that.
So far, Iowans who have donated $200 or more to the presidential race have given Democrats a total of more than $503,000, compared with $376,000 to Republicans. That's a sharp reversal from 2000 when Iowa residents had given $205,000 in $200-or-more donations to Republican candidates and just $51,000 to Democrats.
The Iowa figures mirror the big lead Democratic presidential candidates have established in overall fund raising nationally. Democrats have so far raised $223 million, compared with $152 million for Republican candidates.
Behind Republican's uneasiness are voters like Wes Von Schlotterback of Des Moines. Mr. Von Schlotterback served twice in past elections as a county chairman for Republican presidential candidate Steve Forbes. But this time he says he plans to stay home the night of the caucuses for lack of any good choices. He says he sees the same lack of enthusiasm among many of his Republican friends.
"For the first time ever I'm thinking of voting for a Democrat -- for Obama," he says. He describes the Illinois senator as "genuine."
Democrat Kathleen Clark, a 68-year-old retiree who supports Sen. Clinton says she doesn't typically go to the caucuses, but this year she will. She also plans to bring a friend with her. Concern about rising medical costs is driving her to participate. "We can barely make ends meet" because of rising prescription-drug costs, she says.
Mr. Von Schlotterback ticks off the flaws of the Republican field. Mr. Romney sometimes talks like a "used-car salesman," he says. He likes former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson's conservative politics, but not his languid style.
"We have eight good ones, and they don't have any good ones. That's why the Republicans aren't excited," says Democrat Ruth Anne Petrak, a Des Moines precinct captain for candidate Bill Richardson.
"There's tremendous energy around change, and that change involves Democrats," says Mark Penn, Mrs. Clinton's strategist and pollster. The Republicans, says Mr. Penn, suffer from "the very rare event when the president is universally disliked and leaving the party without a successor."
In Iowa, that may mean more Democrats showing up for the caucuses this week and turning out to vote in November. An Iowa State University Poll says as many as 150,000 Democrats could attend the caucuses, a 20% jump from 2004 -- though caucus turnout can be affected by a variety of factors, including the weather. Republican turnout is expected to be about the same as 2000, the last contested Republican race, at around 87,000, though the poll suggests it could slip.
The intensity gap could narrow as voters nationally begin to focus more on the election and more states begin their primary voting. "If it was October 2008, I would be worried," says Mr. Nelson, the Republican strategist. "In order to win we have to have a positive vision for the country. There is plenty of time for that."
Iowa has turned out to be a much more competitive and important race for the Democrats than for the Republicans. The three Democratic front-runners have poured huge amounts of resources into the state and remain locked in a three-way dead heat.
Iowa Forces
Democratic candidates have spent a total of 300 days campaigning in Iowa, about 100 more days than Republican candidates. Democrats this fall had 573 paid staffers in the state, more than four times the 126 paid Republican staffers, according to the Des Moines Register.
On the Republican side, the contest has become a battle between Mr. Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee, with the other candidates shifting resources to states viewed as more favorable to them -- Mr. McCain to New Hampshire and Rudy Giuliani to Florida and to several states that vote Feb. 5. If one of the Republican candidates catches fire, voter enthusiasm could surge. Republicans also say the nomination of Mrs. Clinton, deeply unpopular among Republicans, could energize Republican voters. "There's nothing like not liking your opponent for increasing your enthusiasm," says Mr. McInturff, the Republican pollster.
Energy Gap
But there are signs that an energy gap is turning up elsewhere as well. When Mr. McCain recently made a campaign stop at Clemson University in South Carolina, which holds its primary Jan. 26, there was a "a mood of despair and despondency" among the crowd, says David Woodard, a Clemson political-science professor who is also a Republican strategist.
Mr. Woodard says that when Mr. McCain visited Clemson during the 2000 campaign "there was electricity like before a football game -- many students got off early from class, the room was packed before he arrived, he got wild applause."
This time, says Mr. Woodard, Mr. McCain, appearing before a smaller crowd, received polite applause when he walked in and no further applause until the end of his speech.
Three weeks ago, Mr. Woodard attended a rally held by Mr. Obama with talk-show host Oprah Winfrey at the University of South Carolina's football stadium. It drew 28,000 people. "I don't think we have ever had an event that drew so many people," says Mr. Woodard
I don't believe this reflects anything other than today. I think it will fluctuate as the year goes on. But the article pleases me--for today.
