US Presidential Election XII

[DaveC]

it's all downhill from here, folks.

[trojanchick99]

I was hoping you not have to pay attention to the Orange cheeto during the Olympics, but like my cat when I'm not petting him, Trump head butted us. It's despicable what he is doing and the GOP "leadership" remains silent.

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[BigMacPhisto]

He's got a 6% chance of winning if the election were held today and we've yet to have polls reflective of the events of the last few days (his assassination comments and a wheelbarrow of prominent Republicans and conservative foreign policy experts denouncing his leadership abilities and campaign).

Obama was a 99.9% favorite right before the 2008 election (with most of the remaining .1% being electoral ties), so I really think Trump will be in that ballpark shortly and, presumably, dropping out.

[Oregoropa]

Unseen events will determine the race

- The Debates will be one of the great spectacles in Election history

- Terror is sure to rear its ugly head again

- Assange has more dirt to unload


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[BigMacPhisto]

The debates will be a big spectacle when Trump doesn't show so Stein and Johnson are invited and Clinton uses it as an opportunity to let the American public get to know her better...

What exactly makes Trump the go-to-guy when it comes to terrorism?

Assange can't have much, otherwise he'd have fired it off during the primaries or would have thrown out a bombshell just before the Democratic Convention.

[Diemen]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Unseen events will determine the race

The race has already been determined. Trump, just this morning, said he sees no reason to change his ways, since that's what got him this far.

And since his ways have lead him into double digit losses in less than two weeks, and since he just can't help but run his mouth when the mood strikes, he will continue to say outlandish things that please his rabid base but alienate everyone else, including principled conservatives.

He's his own worst enemy at this point.

[Debra S]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

...

Assange can't have much, otherwise he'd have fired it off during the primaries or would have thrown out a bombshell just before the Democratic Convention.

October Surprise.

[BigMacPhisto]

If it's a surprise that's big enough to derail Clinton's entire campaign (if not cause her even more damage), then it's something big enough to derail Clinton's entire campaign. Period. It doesn't matter when that information would be released because if it proved Clinton to have done something truly criminal she'd be fucked regardless and would have no shot at winning the election.

By thinking that Assange would release it in October, well, it would either be nothing of great importance or, if it were, he'd be a moron to do it so late in the campaign when everybody has already made their choice (and millions upon millions have already cast their early voting ballots).

I'm not saying that damning evidence of that level doesn't exist, albeit unlikely, but I am confident that the timing of its release won't really matter.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Unseen events will determine the race

- The Debates will be one of the great spectacles in Election history

- Terror is sure to rear its ugly head again

- Assange has more dirt to unload


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Don't forget the seizures... Or maybe there's a 13th investigation about Benghazi?

Whatever straws you can grasp onto will be of comfort.


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[digitize]

While I strongly think that Clinton will win, we shouldn't assume that the rest of the race will just be a straightforward path of Clinton maintaining an 8+ point lead over Trump. Some of her lead is still probably a bit of convention bounce that will fade. And some things could happen that shift the race a bit towards Trump, like a debate performance that isn't terrible or a Clinton gaffe. We're not going to get to the point where FiveThirtyEight calls Clinton a 99.9% favorite until right before the election again; that only happened in 2012 because it was right before the election and the polls were consistent with little time for popular mood to shift.

Clinton will most likely win but I don't think it will be with states like Georgia.


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[BEAL]

Assange doesn't have shit. He's an attention seeking douche.

He continues to talk about how he has this evidence, these emails.....then why not release them? He sounds like every other Right Wing conspiracy theorist, always something bigger, more damning.

The emails from DNC that were released turned out to be a whole lot of faux outrage. Though it did get a few people to step down. But did nothing to Clinton


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[BVS]

Originally Posted by Debra S

October Surprise.

Trump says he has a big announcement. He sets up a teleconference builds this big stage, millions of red hats show up, salivating at the idea that he's finally going to nail Clinton. The backdrop is this huge replica of a wall, he tricks you all into one final Nazi-esque salute before he begins his speech. Then he announces this whole thing has been one big reality show joke, and laughs at the idea that you all fell for the "and we'll make them pay for it". Video of him with his arm around Clinton pops up on the wall and he announces his endorsement of her.

Then he starts to thank everyone that helped him pull this off and says, "but i have to thank one special person" as he wheels out a Sean Hannity that's tied to a chair. They wheel him out to the center of the stage and Trump grabs Hannity's hair and rips off a mask to reveal that it's actually Satan. Satan then says, "and I would have gotten away with it if it weren't for you pesky kids" as he looks over at Paul Ryan and Rand Paul. At that moment Rubio in confusion turns to Cruz and says "if he's satan then who are you?" Cruz just shrugs his shoulders and says "I told you so". In the meantime Scott Baio and Antonio Sabato Jr are on the side of the stage crying as they just realized the 'Tony Loves Chachi' tv show they were promised was all part of the scam. As a befuddled Ben Carson looks aimlessly into the crowd and mumbles "does this mean I don't have the Secretary of Grain Storage position?"

[Debra S]

Is this wishful thinking, or prologue to Armagedon? Very imaginative, anyway! Stay tuned.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by BEAL

Assange doesn't have shit. He's an attention seeking douche.

He continues to talk about how he has this evidence, these emails.....then why not release them? He sounds like every other Right Wing conspiracy theorist, always something bigger, more damning.

The emails from DNC that were released turned out to be a whole lot of faux outrage. Though it did get a few people to step down. But did nothing to Clinton


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I would hardly call Julian Assange "right wing."

[BEAL]

I didn't mean to lump him into it.

But his constant talk of horrible news on Clinton, or the next wave of emails will be damning....

It's no different than the far right constantly saying we've got them!!! This is the one!! Benghazi!!!!!, EMAILS!!!....MURDER!!!!

[IWasBored]

Originally Posted by BVS

Trump says he has a big announcement. He sets up a teleconference builds this big stage, millions of red hats show up, salivating at the idea that he's finally going to nail Clinton. The backdrop is this huge replica of a wall, he tricks you all into one final Nazi-esque salute before he begins his speech. Then he announces this whole thing has been one big reality show joke, and laughs at the idea that you all fell for the "and we'll make them pay for it". Video of him with his arm around Clinton pops up on the wall and he announces his endorsement of her.



Then he starts to thank everyone that helped him pull this off and says, "but i have to thank one special person" as he wheels out a Sean Hannity that's tied to a chair. They wheel him out to the center of the stage and Trump grabs Hannity's hair and rips off a mask to reveal that it's actually Satan. Satan then says, "and I would have gotten away with it if it weren't for you pesky kids" as he looks over at Paul Ryan and Rand Paul. At that moment Rubio in confusion turns to Cruz and says "if he's satan then who are you?" Cruz just shrugs his shoulders and says "I told you so". In the meantime Scott Baio and Antonio Sabato Jr are on the side of the stage crying as they just realized the 'Tony Loves Chachi' tv show they were promised was all part of the scam. As a befuddled Ben Carson looks aimlessly into the crowd and mumbles "does this mean I don't have the Secretary of Grain Storage position?"

let's just end the thread here.

[anitram]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Unseen events will determine the race

- The Debates will be one of the great spectacles in Election history

- Terror is sure to rear its ugly head again

- Assange has more dirt to unload

Again, I just feel sad for you because you seem like a reasonable and smart guy.

But THESE are the hopes you have to hang onto. Women and children dying in a terror attack to frighten the lowest common denominator voters. A douche who's probably a rapist coming up with some personal stuff nobody has been able to unearth even though the Clintons have no privacy left. Just wow.

[BigMacPhisto]

Originally Posted by digitize

We're not going to get to the point where FiveThirtyEight calls Clinton a 99.9% favorite until right before the election again; that only happened in 2012 because it was right before the election and the polls were consistent with little time for popular mood to shift.

You're referring to 2008. I think Romney had a 10% shot on Election Day in 2012 and he had about a 20% chance for most of the couple of months leading up to it, peaking much higher than that after the first debate. His long shot odds are going to only look better and better in retrospect when the Republican nominee will routinely start out ten points behind after the convention bounce. 2012, for my money, was the last election where Republicans could have conceivably one if the right circumstances were in play.

As it stands, the demographic advantage that the Democrats possess is only going to make the gulf in support wider and wider. I don't care how unpopular a sitting Democratic President can be, you aren't suddenly going to convince young voters, non-whites, etc. to vote for a Republican instead. And that's why the GOP will be kicking themselves that they went an offended the country's new majority constantly throughout the start of the 21st century. The tactics were great in the short term, but terrible for the long game.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by BEAL

I didn't mean to lump him into it.

But his constant talk of horrible news on Clinton, or the next wave of emails will be damning....

It's no different than the far right constantly saying we've got them!!! This is the one!! Benghazi!!!!!, EMAILS!!!....MURDER!!!!

How can u ignore Ben Gazi? Never 4get such an honorable man. He died serving our cuntry. Murdered by the spawn of Satan, Hillary Cuntlin.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

As it stands, the demographic advantage that the Democrats possess is only going to make the gulf in support wider and wider. I don't care how unpopular a sitting Democratic President can be, you aren't suddenly going to convince young voters, non-whites, etc. to vote for a Republican instead. And that's why the GOP will be kicking themselves that they went an offended the country's new majority constantly throughout the start of the 21st century. The tactics were great in the short term, but terrible for the long game.

If the Republican Party does not learn their lesson with Trump they never will and will fade into obscurity.

If they do figure it out, they have a chance to rebuild their platform, but it will take a few elections.

Either way we will not have an R in the WH in a long time.


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