US Presidential Election 2016...because it's never too early

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And then the right ripped her for complaining about it until Sarah Palin was named the VP candidate and had to do a 180 on whether or not women in politics should be allowed to complain about media coverage.
 
How 'far' to the left (by American standards) is Warren?



She's generally about as far left on economic issues as a mainstream US politician could ever be, at least one with a national platform. Generally, her and Bernie Sanders (an Independent from Vermont who votes with Democrats) are the two best voices the left has. They are both well respected within the party, and speak to the base. They advocate traditional American liberal policies that were modified/abandoned by Clinton "triangulation" and his move to the right after the 1994 midterms.

They'd be mainstream, centrist candidates in most Western European democracies.

They are also not nearly as far to the left as their counterparts on the right.

What's interesting, to me, is that it's economic populism that's the red meat for the Democratic base, whereas red meat for the GOP base is now social issues.
 
I think the two party system(if you can call it that) works just fine. What often happens in Europe with large multiple parties in government is that coalitions are formed in order to win elections and these coalitions resemble what already happens between the Republicans and the Democrats in the United States.
 
You can't handle Scott Walker

Change is DUE from US voters.

This post is me taking action. Everyone currently buying into our bullshit two-party oligarchy has 1 of 2 choices. They can either take action themselves and "CHANGE" the culture here OR they can look forward to more embarrassing candidates in the future from these pissweak political parties.

Democrats, Republicans and their yes-men will not strong-arm me into keeping my mouth shut on this matter. It’s called “FREEDOM OF SPEECH”. I will no longer be a silent drone to this oppression and their tyrannical two-party system.

Things will change. I know people.

Let's make like Devin Hester and take this shit to the WHITE HOUSE.

Well done. :up:
 
My prediction: Hillary is going to continue to struggle as the 'Clinton Cash' book rolls out. So far her campaign as appeared inauthentic. She has bussed in Democrat operatives into a meet and greet at a coffee shop. The media is not giving her as much cover as she is used to. Seeing weakness in the Clinton machine I think more people might throw their hat in the ring.

I'm not a Democrat. For those of you who generally side with Democrats who would you want to see if not Hillary?

How is it that she is struggling? A quick look at Real Clear Politics polling data collected over the past two days has her up double digits over every GOP candidate, some by as many as 24 points even (Carson/Cruz). The closest one i saw as Rubio, which she "only" had a 14 point lead.

I realize its very early, but clearly your definition of struggling is different than mine.

RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls

Monday, April 20
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2016 Republican Presidential Nomination CNN/ORC Bush 17, Walker 12, Cruz 7, Paul 11, Rubio 11, Huckabee 9, Carson 4, Christie 4, Perry 3, Santorum 3, Jindal 2, Kasich 2 Bush +5
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination CNN/Opinion Research Clinton 69, Warren, Biden 11, Sanders 5, Webb 3, O'Malley 1 Clinton +58
General Election: Bush vs. Clinton CNN/Opinion Research Clinton 56, Bush 39 Clinton +17
General Election: Walker vs. Clinton CNN/Opinion Research Clinton 59, Walker 37 Clinton +22
General Election: Paul vs. Clinton CNN/Opinion Research Clinton 58, Paul 39 Clinton +19
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton CNN/Opinion Research Clinton 60, Cruz 36 Clinton +24
General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton CNN/Opinion Research Clinton 55, Rubio 41 Clinton +14
General Election: Christie vs. Clinton CNN/Opinion Research Clinton 58, Christie 39 Clinton +19
General Election: Huckabee vs. Clinton CNN/Opinion Research Clinton 58, Huckabee 37 Clinton +21
General Election: Carson vs. Clinton CNN/Opinion Research Clinton 60, Carson 36 Clinton +24
 
How is it that she is struggling? A quick look at Real Clear Politics polling data collected over the past two days has her up double digits over every GOP candidate, some by as many as 24 points even (Carson/Cruz). The closest one i saw as Rubio, which she "only" had a 14 point lead.

I realize its very early, but clearly your definition of struggling is different than mine.

RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls

Wow, I don't think I have ever seen Hillary this strong. Clearly part of it must be the effect of formally announcing the campaign. I think they might of moved up the date for announcing because she was sliding some in older polls plus the e-mail scandal. But now, 69% support vs all the other Democratic nominees. That's just nuts. Then, CNN's results show a landslide victory or near landslide victory against every Republican candidate except maybe Rubio. This looks like a slaughter.
 
Winner take all means two parties. Third party candidates are irrelevant in America.


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At least your views haven't changed.

Well, I do remember you saying that that specifically wasn't the election for it. Probably hanging out for another Ross Perot.
 
Wow, I don't think I have ever seen Hillary this strong. Clearly part of it must be the effect of formally announcing the campaign. I think they might of moved up the date for announcing because she was sliding some in older polls plus the e-mail scandal. But now, 69% support vs all the other Democratic nominees. That's just nuts. Then, CNN's results show a landslide victory or near landslide victory against every Republican candidate except maybe Rubio. This looks like a slaughter.
at this stage I think she wins in Nov 2016, with the GOP candidate in the high 40s and her in the low 50s, not a blow out, but a sizable win in the electoral college, could easily get 350 electoral votes.

I will say looking at the FOX polls that conservative seem to have more faith in, Bush is tied with her at 45 - 45. All the rest are losing to her. Also looking at the state by state polls, Rubio looks weak. I still say it will most likely be a two person race between Bush and Walker. Note that in the Wisconsin polls Walker loses to Hillary by a wider margin the many of the other GOP candidates.
 
How is it that she is struggling? A quick look at Real Clear Politics polling data collected over the past two days has her up double digits over every GOP candidate, some by as many as 24 points even (Carson/Cruz). The closest one i saw as Rubio, which she "only" had a 14 point lead.

I realize its very early, but clearly your definition of struggling is different than mine.

RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls

Like I prefaced it: My prediction.
 
Part-WAS-Was8911443-1-1-0.jpg


I hope Carly gets in, it will make it more fun? to watch
 
In the US we have a tradition of 2 parties. But within those you have schisms. I would argue there are 4 parties.

GOP Establishment (Rockefeller Republicans) - Usually tied to big business lobby. Country Club Crony Capitalism type mentality. Examples Jeb Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney

Tea Party - Believe Big Centralized Government prone to corruption. Strong Constitutional Conservative. Conservative Social Issues. Examples: Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Mike Lee

Blue Dog Democrat - Supports FDR + LBJ safety nets. Can be middle of the road social issues. Used to have a strong showing in Middle America. Examples: Joe Manchin, Jim Webb, Heath Shuler

Liberal Democrats - Support strong centralized government. Liberalized Social Issues. Less prone to use military. Examples: Barack Obama, Elizabeth Warren, Nancy Pelosi
 
My idea of the tea party might be different and include terms like racist, bigoted, homophobic, etc. And now that we have Ted Cruz as their current darling, add hypocrite to that list.
 
Like I prefaced it: My prediction.

Actually what you said was this:

Originally Posted by Oregoropa View Post
My prediction: Hillary is going to continue to struggle

The word "continue" would indicate that she is struggling currently, however as the CNN poll from RCP would indicate, she doesn't appear to be struggling currently.

She may "struggle" at some point as the election is still quite a ways out. However, if she is currently struggling by your metrics, she will still win easily. Which if you think about it, that is not exactly the definition of struggle.
 
In the US we have a tradition of 2 parties. But within those you have schisms. I would argue there are 4 parties.



GOP Establishment (Rockefeller Republicans) - Usually tied to big business lobby. Country Club Crony Capitalism type mentality. Examples Jeb Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney



Tea Party - Believe Big Centralized Government prone to corruption. Strong Constitutional Conservative. Conservative Social Issues. Examples: Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Mike Lee



Blue Dog Democrat - Supports FDR + LBJ safety nets. Can be middle of the road social issues. Used to have a strong showing in Middle America. Examples: Joe Manchin, Jim Webb, Heath Shuler



Liberal Democrats - Support strong centralized government. Liberalized Social Issues. Less prone to use military. Examples: Barack Obama, Elizabeth Warren, Nancy Pelosi





I think this is a totally reasonable breakdown, and if we were in a parliamentary system, these are probably the parties we would have. It's the nature of the presidency, I think, and the need for a one-on-one election, that makes us dependent on the two parties.
 
In the US we have a tradition of 2 parties. But within those you have schisms. I would argue there are 4 parties.

GOP Establishment (Rockefeller Republicans) - Usually tied to big business lobby. Country Club Crony Capitalism type mentality. Examples Jeb Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney

Tea Party - Believe Big Centralized Government prone to corruption. Strong Constitutional Conservative. Conservative Social Issues. Examples: Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Mike Lee

Blue Dog Democrat - Supports FDR + LBJ safety nets. Can be middle of the road social issues. Used to have a strong showing in Middle America. Examples: Joe Manchin, Jim Webb, Heath Shuler

Liberal Democrats - Support strong centralized government. Liberalized Social Issues. Less prone to use military. Examples: Barack Obama, Elizabeth Warren, Nancy Pelosi

So is Hillary a Blue Dog or a Liberal?
 
In the US we have a tradition of 2 parties. But within those you have schisms. I would argue there are 4 parties.



GOP Establishment (Rockefeller Republicans) - Usually tied to big business lobby. Country Club Crony Capitalism type mentality. Examples Jeb Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney



Tea Party - Believe Big Centralized Government prone to corruption. Strong Constitutional Conservative. Conservative Social Issues. Examples: Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Mike Lee



Blue Dog Democrat - Supports FDR + LBJ safety nets. Can be middle of the road social issues. Used to have a strong showing in Middle America. Examples: Joe Manchin, Jim Webb, Heath Shuler



Liberal Democrats - Support strong centralized government. Liberalized Social Issues. Less prone to use military. Examples: Barack Obama, Elizabeth Warren, Nancy Pelosi


Can anyone tell which category Oregoropa considers themself by the descriptions? lol


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According to what definition?


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By the fact that Hillary has a more liberal past than Bill. Bill moved more towards the center in 1994 and was willing to be bipartisan. So I think of him as a moderate democrat. (By today's standards)
While Hillary is about as liberal as President Obama, Pelosi, Sanders, etc.


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Give me one credited example of the Tea Party being racist?

Mia Love and Tim Scott are both Tea Party Republicans

There's nothing at all racist about a gathering of angry men, mostly older and white, holding American flags upside down, many carrying confederate flags, protesting the President, his policies, and of course immigration.

They might call them self "taxed enough already" and that might be the basis of their formation. However its not a stretch to see what the root of their anger really is. It is funny that they became a party not long after the first black president was elected. How many of them complained when Bush signed TARP into law? I don't remember any complaints then...it was only after the 2008 election and Obama took office.

I doubt all of them are racists, just like i doubt the tea party would even exist had McCain been elected in 2008. That's not the factual proof you are looking for...yeah there are plenty of youtube videos of racist or borderline racist and/or bigoted behavior for all to see. I am not posting that crap here.

Most politicians are polished enough to keep their thoughts in check when speaking, of course, there is this video from 2012s Tea Party Darling, Rick Santorum, which makes you wonder if it was an unfortunate slip of the tongue or ass juices' true thoughts for all the world to see.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgrhJSAaYIc

Oh Ted Cruz, 2016 Tea Party darling and Santorum heir apparent, we are looking towards you to keep this tradition alive and well.

And in the interest of irony

santorum_ice_cream_2-thumb.jpg
 
By the fact that Hillary has a more liberal past than Bill. Bill moved more towards the center in 1994 and was willing to be bipartisan. So I think of him as a moderate democrat. (By today's standards)
While Hillary is about as liberal as President Obama, Pelosi, Sanders, etc.


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Have you ever heard the phrase that you cannot use the very word when trying to define the word? There was a definition above, she doesn't actually fit in that "liberal" category, so I'm asking what definition? What stances, what past?


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Bill governed as a Blue Dog in Arkansas. In the white house he signed DOMA. Worked with Newt on a balanced budget - surplus. Had the Blue Dog roots winning Southern States in 1992. He is essentially his own creature all together.


Hillary is a liberal democrat with a big crony capital tie into Wall Street money.
 
Have you ever heard the phrase that you cannot use the very word when trying to define the word? There was a definition above, she doesn't actually fit in that "liberal" category, so I'm asking what definition? What stances, what past?


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After doing some more research on this, I believe that Hillary is somewhere kinda in between. I guess she's not as liberal as Warren and Sanders in regards to issues like Israel and Social Security, so I'll admit I slightly overstated her liberalism.
However, she is still thoroughly liberal with issues like taxes and social issues. She is a strong proponent of pro-choice and gay marriage, while also advocating an increase in taxes, especially on higher income people.
I'm interested to see how and if her stances have changed since 2008. She'll be under significant scrutiny by her liberal base, so it'll be interesting to see if she cracks down to more liberalism this go around.

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Yes I am asking for a specific example. Go right ahead Phils fan. (I like the Phillies too)


The entire birther movement qualifies as racist. Hmm, I wonder why they don't believe Obama is a "real American." There's something different about Obama that sets him apart from the other 43 presidents we've had. I just can't put my finger on it.


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It is funny that they became a party not long after the first black president was elected. How many of them complained when Bush signed TARP into law? I don't remember any complaints then...it was only after the 2008 election and Obama took office.

There were many conservatives who were unhappy with the Government spending under Bush. They became aware and furious with TARP. The true seedlings of the Tea Party began with Rick Santelli's rant on the floor of the Chicago Merc Exchange about mortgage bailouts. The emergency stimulus and Auto bailouts added to the frustration of the newly formed Tea party.
 
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