Perhaps the single-biggest mystery, as the various players haggle over the infrastructure bills, is exactly what Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) is doing. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is a fly in the ointment, too, but at least he comes from a red state, and one that would clearly benefit from a boatload of pork. Further, he is at least willing to share some details about what he does/does not want. Yes, those details seem to change on a regular basis, but at least he isn't a complete cipher.
Sinema, on the other hand, represents a purple state, and so doesn't have the excuse that she'd be booted out of office if she's not very careful. There are a number of Senators from states that are as swingy as hers (Mark Kelly, who is also in Arizona, Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire, Raphael Warnock in Georgia, arguably Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada) and yet have remained loyal foot soldiers for Chuck Schumer. And all of them are up next year, while Sinema is not up until 2024. Further, she is being much more close-lipped than Manchin about exactly what her concerns are, and what it is that she wants.
A story from The New York Times may have an answer. Yesterday, she held a big-dollar fundraiser ($5,800/pop) for members of groups who oppose the $3.5 trillion bill. According to Salon, since she took office, Sinema has collected in excess of $1.5 million from groups that oppose the reconciliation package.
It could very well be, then, that there was no 3-D chess here, and that the real story is both simple and as old as politics itself: Sinema was bought and paid for. If so, then the question is how "honest" she is. And by that, we mean "honest" as defined by (wildly corrupt) 19th-century politician Simon Cameron: "An honest politician is one who, when he's bought, stays bought." Cameron died 33 years before the first woman served in the Senate, but the sentiment still holds.
It won't be long before we find out how intractable Sinema really is. If her sole focus is her 3-years-in-the-future reelection campaign, and the war chest she will have, that is pretty self-centered. Beyond that, however, we are mystified as to what she is thinking. The Democrats have no choice but to tolerate Manchin, since he's the only Democrat who can get elected from West Virginia. But if she betrays the Party, they are going to support—perhaps surreptitiously, perhaps openly—a heavy-duty primary challenger, either Katie Hobbs (if she loses the gubernatorial race next year) or Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ). In that case, having already lost the progressive vote, Sinema might well be an underdog to be renominated. And even if she survived, she would then have to make it through a none-too-easy general election campaign. In short, it sure looks to us like she's playing with fire. (Z & V)
