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Old 01-05-2021, 03:09 PM   #661
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I've been a bit out of touch with this election, but is there any indication that the races themselves may have different odds? From the outside looking in I'd assume Warnock is better positioned (high black turnout favours him and Loeffler is even less likeable than Perdue which is saying a lot).
Warnock is more highly favored in his race than Ossoff is in his.

The perception is that Perdue's seniority and superior unfavorability rating could carry him to a win over Ossoff. Both Democratic candidates have a polling advantage ranging from 1.5-2.2 percentage points, well within the margin of error, but I believe betting sites are giving Perdue a tiny advantage at this time.
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Old 01-05-2021, 03:40 PM   #662
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This is a very helpful thread regarding GA turnout:

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Old 01-05-2021, 03:55 PM   #663
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Nathaniel is a great name

https://twitter.com/cherijacobus/sta...048183296?s=21

Absolute madness in PA. Looks like the GOP is taking these coups all the way
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Old 01-05-2021, 04:15 PM   #664
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This Pennsylvania thing is not the same as the Trump thing.

There's at least a (flimsy) legal argument in PA. Trump is literally just making shit up.
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Old 01-05-2021, 04:46 PM   #665
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Didn’t the PA Supreme Court rule the election was valid ? The GOP are ignoring the courts decision and refusing to seat the Democrat
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Old 01-05-2021, 05:22 PM   #666
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Just saw a local news report, DC preparing for possibly heavily armed white supremacists there tomorrow. They have been talking online about their plans to show up there with their guns.

What an absolute disgrace.
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Old 01-05-2021, 06:16 PM   #667
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I have to say, not having to think about an election these last two months was nice. But here I am, waiting for the Times needle to show up.
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Old 01-05-2021, 06:22 PM   #668
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Are we expecting this to be called tonight?
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Old 01-05-2021, 06:26 PM   #669
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I think it is possible though I wouldn't say expected. The lack of polling there makes this even more uncertain than usual, I would say. Though it seems to me that there was a pro-Dem move in the last couple of weeks once Moscow Mitch decided that giving people $2000 was too much. I think we could get a call if this trend is really true.
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Old 01-05-2021, 06:32 PM   #670
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I think the polling is sufficient to say it’s too close to call and the matchups rest on turnout.

That should probably mean it won’t be called tonight? I’m not sure how much more or less challenging the election is without everyone and everything else on the ticket.
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Old 01-05-2021, 06:46 PM   #671
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zero chance it gets called tonight. it took 10 days to call the state in november because vote counters weren't allowed to touch any of the early/mail-in votes until the polls closed, and that rule hasn't changed. it won't take 10 days again, but there's no chance enough of those votes are counted tonight for anyone to call it either way.
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Old 01-05-2021, 07:14 PM   #672
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Great exit poll for Ossoff... 2 in 3 who did not vote have voted for Ossoff, but minimal and equally offsetting defections from Election Day.

Ossoff bump, 2/3rds of 2% still indicates a turnout game.
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Old 01-05-2021, 07:19 PM   #673
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Very early returns obviously, but crap Loeffler has a big lead in them.

So does Perdue now

I can't even follow what CNN is doing when they are showing numbers, so who knows
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Old 01-05-2021, 07:26 PM   #674
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Very early returns obviously, but crap Loeffler has a big lead in them.

So does Perdue now

I can't even follow what CNN is doing when they are showing numbers, so who knows
trump had a pretty big early lead in georgia on nov 3rd too, if i recall. this is normal, it takes a hell of a lot less time to count the votes in a rural county precinct with 10,000 voters who almost all voted red, than it does to count the votes in a precinct in downtown atlanta or a batch of mail-in votes that more than balances things out.

deep breaths
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Old 01-05-2021, 07:27 PM   #675
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The needle is blue. Barely so, but blue. It was quite accurate in November.
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Old 01-05-2021, 07:29 PM   #676
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trump had a pretty big early lead in georgia on nov 3rd too, if i recall. this is normal, it takes a hell of a lot less time to count the votes in a rural county precinct with 10,000 voters who almost all voted red, than it does to count the votes in a precinct in downtown atlanta or a batch of mail-in votes that more than balances things out.

deep breaths
I just really want GA to come through on this. Come on GA, please. Friday at 5 is also the deadline for military and overseas ballots.

Manic John King with those maps=stressful flashbacks
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Old 01-05-2021, 07:42 PM   #677
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Not holding my breath, but early returns are promising.
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Old 01-05-2021, 07:44 PM   #678
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Seems like the Dem candidates are very slightly over performing Biden. But very little Election Day vote information is out at this point.
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Old 01-05-2021, 07:47 PM   #679
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Seems like the Dem candidates are very slightly over performing Biden. But very little Election Day vote information is out at this point.
There are a lot of smaller rural counties that are in. They're coming in dead on Trump's number but slightly up on the Biden number, thanks to the Jorgenson voters all going blue.
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Old 01-05-2021, 07:51 PM   #680
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There are a lot of smaller rural counties that are in. They're coming in dead on Trump's number but slightly up on the Biden number, thanks to the Jorgenson voters all going blue.
And earlier reports seemed to show higher than expected Election Day turnout in Atlanta, so that could possibly help a lot.
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