US Politics XXXI-Lame Duck Obese Turtle

[LemonMelon]

I've been a bit out of touch with this election, but is there any indication that the races themselves may have different odds? From the outside looking in I'd assume Warnock is better positioned (high black turnout favours him and Loeffler is even less likeable than Perdue which is saying a lot).

Warnock is more highly favored in his race than Ossoff is in his.

The perception is that Perdue's seniority and superior unfavorability rating could carry him to a win over Ossoff. Both Democratic candidates have a polling advantage ranging from 1.5-2.2 percentage points, well within the margin of error, but I believe betting sites are giving Perdue a tiny advantage at this time.

 

[LemonMelon]

This is a very helpful thread regarding GA turnout:

[TWEET]1346303916720459782[/TWEET]

 

[BEAL]

Nathaniel is a great name

https://twitter.com/cherijacobus/status/1346552092048183296?s=21

Absolute madness in PA. Looks like the GOP is taking these coups all the way

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

This Pennsylvania thing is not the same as the Trump thing.

There's at least a (flimsy) legal argument in PA. Trump is literally just making shit up.

 

[BEAL]

Didn’t the PA Supreme Court rule the election was valid ? The GOP are ignoring the courts decision and refusing to seat the Democrat

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Just saw a local news report, DC preparing for possibly heavily armed white supremacists there tomorrow. They have been talking online about their plans to show up there with their guns.

What an absolute disgrace.

 

[gump]

I have to say, not having to think about an election these last two months was nice. But here I am, waiting for the Times needle to show up.

 

[LJT]

Are we expecting this to be called tonight?

 

[gump]

I think it is possible though I wouldn't say expected. The lack of polling there makes this even more uncertain than usual, I would say. Though it seems to me that there was a pro-Dem move in the last couple of weeks once Moscow Mitch decided that giving people $2000 was too much. I think we could get a call if this trend is really true.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I think the polling is sufficient to say it’s too close to call and the matchups rest on turnout.

That should probably mean it won’t be called tonight? I’m not sure how much more or less challenging the election is without everyone and everything else on the ticket.

 

[DaveC]

zero chance it gets called tonight. it took 10 days to call the state in november because vote counters weren't allowed to touch any of the early/mail-in votes until the polls closed, and that rule hasn't changed. it won't take 10 days again, but there's no chance enough of those votes are counted tonight for anyone to call it either way.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Great exit poll for Ossoff... 2 in 3 who did not vote have voted for Ossoff, but minimal and equally offsetting defections from Election Day.

Ossoff bump, 2/3rds of 2% still indicates a turnout game.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Very early returns obviously, but crap Loeffler has a big lead in them.

So does Perdue now

I can't even follow what CNN is doing when they are showing numbers, so who knows

 

[DaveC]

Very early returns obviously, but crap Loeffler has a big lead in them.

So does Perdue now

I can't even follow what CNN is doing when they are showing numbers, so who knows

trump had a pretty big early lead in georgia on nov 3rd too, if i recall. this is normal, it takes a hell of a lot less time to count the votes in a rural county precinct with 10,000 voters who almost all voted red, than it does to count the votes in a precinct in downtown atlanta or a batch of mail-in votes that more than balances things out.

deep breaths

 

[gump]

The needle is blue. Barely so, but blue. It was quite accurate in November.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

trump had a pretty big early lead in georgia on nov 3rd too, if i recall. this is normal, it takes a hell of a lot less time to count the votes in a rural county precinct with 10,000 voters who almost all voted red, than it does to count the votes in a precinct in downtown atlanta or a batch of mail-in votes that more than balances things out.

deep breaths

I just really want GA to come through on this. Come on GA, please. Friday at 5 is also the deadline for military and overseas ballots.

Manic John King with those maps=stressful flashbacks

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Not holding my breath, but early returns are promising.

 

[gump]

Seems like the Dem candidates are very slightly over performing Biden. But very little Election Day vote information is out at this point.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Seems like the Dem candidates are very slightly over performing Biden. But very little Election Day vote information is out at this point.

There are a lot of smaller rural counties that are in. They're coming in dead on Trump's number but slightly up on the Biden number, thanks to the Jorgenson voters all going blue.

 

[gump]

There are a lot of smaller rural counties that are in. They're coming in dead on Trump's number but slightly up on the Biden number, thanks to the Jorgenson voters all going blue.

And earlier reports seemed to show higher than expected Election Day turnout in Atlanta, so that could possibly help a lot.

 

[gump]

Shit I think they may do this.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Not only might they do it, we may know tonight.

 

[phanan]

Promising start, but a long way to go.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I'm dying

https://twitter.com/noahmitchell0/status/1346625327532027905?s=19

 

[anitram]

Jesus could it be...

 

[anitram]

Betting markets have the Dems up to 77%. Follow the money.

 

[gump]

Betting markets have the Dems up to 77%. Follow the money.

I want to believe this, but they were really poor predictors in November.

 

[anitram]

I thought that they did ok once the votes started coming in? I may be misremembering as in a strange that feels like a million years ago.

 

[LemonMelon]

I thought that they did ok once the votes started coming in? I may be misremembering as in a strange that feels like a million years ago.

Yeah the markets took a sharp turn late on election night/the following morning.

Might be too early to assume that we've reached a turning point, but we'll see soon enough.

 

[gump]

I thought that they did ok once the votes started coming in? I may be misremembering as in a strange that feels like a million years ago.

If I remember correctly (I'm with you, this feels like ancient times already) the markets were quite wild but kept overrating the chances of a Trump win.