US Politics XXX: The type of film Donald wants to watch Ivanka in

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Should it be focused on the majority? Yes.

Should we ignore the minority? Doing so would be a monumental mistake.

The numbers may look to be enormous because we're dealing in millions. But it's 52% to 48%. That's not an overwhelming mandate.

Ignoring 48% of the population is a mistake that will lead to a the rise of a new Trump, and the next Trump may not be so erratic and transactional.

If Trump didn't butcher the response to covid, even with everything else he did, we may be having a completely different conversation today. Let's not lose sight of that.



While we can’t ignore 48% of the population a 4-5% win in a polarized electorate does give Biden a mandate. Just ask W Bush who declared one after barely pulling off a win in 2004.

Interesting as results are coming into focus at how much better Biden did than Democrats in general. He was the right candidate for this particular election.

Democrats have problems, mostly messaging problems. Let’s hope the nonvoters Trump energized go back into their bunkers.

If someone can show us how to energize liberal nonvoters in that Trumpy way, I’m all ears. I think Obama was the closest we had, but that was more getting the base to turn out, not turning out nonvoters.
 
While we can’t ignore 48% of the population a 4-5% win in a polarized electorate does give Biden a mandate. Just ask W Bush who declared one after barely pulling off a win in 2004.

Interesting as results are coming into focus at how much better Biden did than Democrats in general. He was the right candidate for this particular election.

Democrats have problems, mostly messaging problems. Let’s hope the nonvoters Trump energized go back into their bunkers.

If someone can show us how to energize liberal nonvoters in that Trumpy way, I’m all ears. I think Obama was the closest we had, but that was more getting the base to turn out, not turning out nonvoters.

Sure - I didn't say he didn't have mandate. It's just not an overwhelming one.

And when you consider just how stark the differences between the two sides are? There's much work to be done.

As you said a huge part of this is in the messaging. The Democrats are woefully bad at messaging.
 
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/how-democrats-senate-dreams-crumbled_n_5fa8914fc5b623bfac5164a9?d6f

How the polls hurt Dems in the Senate.

Voters in these states reverted to form. GOP internal polling showed that as voters across the board became more aware Biden was likely to win the presidency in the final weeks, it became harder for Democratic candidates to win over the Republicans and conservative-leaning independents they needed to win. The chance to compete slipped away from Democrats in Kansas and Montana. Greenfield’s advantage over Ernst in Iowa ― one poll showed the Democrat winning 10% of Trump voters ― evaporated.

The four major groups spending on Senate races ― The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority PAC for Democrats, plus the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Senate Leadership Fund for the GOP ― put a combined $660 million into Senate races across the country. In the end, roughly $152 million of that total went to races that were decided by 10 percentage points or more, according to data from OpenSecrets.
 
I guessed that one... pretty sure there’s some poorly written post of mine that says “the best place to be is barely behind in the polls.”

Though also when I get the time I’m going to write a nice thread about the silent minority and why they absolutely exist and are present in every single poll
 
Democrats have problems, mostly messaging problems. Let’s hope the nonvoters Trump energized go back into their bunkers.

If someone can show us how to energize liberal nonvoters in that Trumpy way, I’m all ears. I think Obama was the closest we had, but that was more getting the base to turn out, not turning out nonvoters.

I am not the biggest fan of AOC, mostly based on policy and the fact that I don't view her as particularly pragmatic.

But she is 100% right on the incompetence of the DNC and establishment Democrats more generally regarding how to run an election, energize the base and bring new voters to the polls. And this is nothing new, it's a decades-old problem. It really started with AM radio, which is well-suited to the Republican voter in rural areas who spends a lot of time in their cars, covering long distances. The damage inflicted by right-wing talk show hosts, many of whom make Rush Limbaugh sound moderate, over the last 3 decades or so has been immeasurable. These are the people who were Fox News before there was Fox News and who continue to dominate the airwaves. The left ceded the airways to the right, which was understandable in part since your urban citizen isn't likely to listen to dozens of hours of radio every week. But the left has also underestimated the power of AM radio.

Then came Fox News, "fair and balanced" and the left basically ceded the cable news wars to the right. You can argue that MSNBC has since emerged as left-leaning, but there is still a Grand Canyon sized gap between what and how they report vs. Fox News. Plus, again, you have the challenge that most Democratic voters are urban and they just no longer watch that much cable tv.

Then we had the social media networks. I joined Facebook in 2006 when I was in law school, and later that year they expanded it to anyone over 13, there was no longer a student requirement. For many years, you had generally younger people on there. Certainly in 2008 when Obama ran, FB was dominated by left-leaning users. However, since then you've had such rapid expansion that nowadays it's a hotbed for batshit crazy things of every stripe. And the left has ceded to the right, in a format in which they actually held the advantage for a long time.

Digital media is the future, and the right used that with Brexit and with Trump's election to data mine and identify non-voters whom they could bring into their fold and use to drag them across the line when margins were razor thin.

The left, other than AOC & crowd, seems happy to yell about the unfairness of social media spreading lies, Russian and other bots, Zuckerberg and so on instead of themselves developing a cogent digital media action plan.

And that's also part of the reason why you need to get rid of dinosaurs like Dianne Feinstein and why Nancy Pelosi should also step aside.
 
it seems that the Qultists have convinced themselves that the four seasons debacle was entirely deliberate. you see, the crematorium next door to the landscaping business is where the deep state baby-eating satanist cabal is burning trump voters' ballots. and rudy was sending out a signal that this is the place that it's all going down.

because, you know, rudy giuliani is totally the type of person who communicates in subtle secret codes that only a select few people in the know will pick up on. rudy looking like a blubbering loser on national television was totally fake, just a genius move in an eternal game of 4D chess.

it also totally makes sense that if you know election fraud is happening RIGHT NOW in the building next door and all the media is assembled there, you would broadcast super-secret signals to a tiny fraction of a percentage of the public in advance of some undetermined future action to be done at some undetermined time, rather than just saying "hey you guys with all the cameras, go look in there".

i Qan't even :huh:
 
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Absolutely.
If Covid never hit, with the way the economy was going, Trump would have been re-elected with ease. No doubt in my mind.
Yeah. But let's not lose sight of the fact that Trump's anti-scientific approach and profound lack of empathy made the pandemic uniquely challenging for his reelection chances. It did not necessarily have to sink him and there are leaders and governors throughout the west that did a good job with it, at least initially.

I'll never forget how popular Bush was after 9/11; it's always possible to take a historic low and spin it as a victory. Just not for Trump.
 
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If I'm not mistaken, most leaders' popularity rose as a rally-round-the-flag effect with COVID. Trump's incompetence, not COVID itself, was responsible (as LM noted above).
 
AOC spoke about the citizens who chose not to vote out of apathy. The mindset of nothing ever changes so why bother...

This is where the Democrats need to pounce. Follow her lead on social media, digital world and outreach.

But most of all

Change leadership. When people see the same damn names at the top for the last 40 plus years, it’s easy to see the view of nothing matters (and part of that is on the idea that big changes happen overnight with our low attention span).

You start putting younger people in charge, and you may get more engagement from those that feel they’re left out.

Same time tho, You’re faced with an clear threat to our way of being (authoritarian, pandemic, climate change) and you still say nahhhhh, is there really anything that can be done to change your mind ?
 
If I'm not mistaken, most leaders' popularity rose as a rally-round-the-flag effect with COVID. Trump's incompetence, not COVID itself, was responsible (as LM noted above).

Exactly.

We have a premier in Ontario (Rob Ford's brother) who wasn't well liked at all and he had huge approval ratings from March-May or so when he really took charge and totally deferred to the scientists. He now seems to have given up on governing so he's sinking again.
 
it seems that the Qultists have convinced themselves that the four seasons debacle was entirely deliberate. you see, the crematorium next door to the landscaping business is where the deep state baby-eating satanist cabal is burning trump voters' ballots. and rudy was sending out a signal that this is the place that it's all going down.

because, you know, rudy giuliani is totally the type of person who communicates in subtle secret codes that only a select few people in the know will pick up on. rudy looking like a blubbering loser on national television was totally fake, just a genius move in an eternal game of 4D chess.

it also totally makes sense that if you know election fraud is happening RIGHT NOW in the building next door and all the media is assembled there, you would broadcast super-secret signals to a tiny fraction of a percentage of the public in advance of some undetermined future action to be done at some undetermined time, rather than just saying "hey you guys with all the cameras, go look in there".

i Qan't even :huh:
giphy.gif
 
NASA chief out as well



Jim is stepping aside because he knows he will get canned because he’s an extremely atypical political appointee to a scientific organization. I give him all the credit in the world for not fucking the whole thing up whitely like he could’ve... he adapted to it as well as a climate science denying congressman from Oklahoma appointed by Donald Trump could’ve [emoji23]

The Esper thing is a little more concerning.
 
I find myself still anxious about the state of our body politic going forward, even with the Biden victory, for the following reasons:

1. Even with this victory, 70M people voted for Trump, and a good portion of them may view Biden as illegitimate, as ridiculous as it sounds. I truly hope that nothing suspicious happened in any state that matters, because they will run with any evidence of even the smallest irregularity.

2. If the GOP holds on to the Senate, it could both handcuff Biden and set them up to say, 'look, Biden hasn't gotten anything done' in 2022.

3. There is already infighting within the Democratic Party. Seems like the left wing of the party kept relatively quiet long enough to win this election, but now they're starting to speak up. I largely agree with the left wing's policy goals - Single Payer, Green New Deal, Living Minimum Wage, etc - but I am not a fan of the scorched earth tactics employed by AOC, Bernie, etc. I fear this kind of antagonism within the party could be a problem.

4. The question of where does the Lincoln Project fit into all of this. These are former Republicans who have made it their mission to defeat Trump and Trumpism. But if you look around, there is disagreement within the Democratic Party about how friendly we should be to them. Some say, 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend, we need all the help we can get'. But other say, 'these people actively worked against most if not all of our policy goals for years if not decades, they are not our friends'. I guess this could be a part of #3 above.

5. The SCOTUS majority and how it could affect anything and everything going forward.

6. And finally - I know this election just happened, but I still think about it - the question of whether or not Biden will run again in 2024 and the question of whether or not Trump will run again in 2024. Many have assumed that given his age, Biden will not run again, but he himself has never said that. Whether or not he has to start a re-election campaign as soon as the 2022 midterms are over could be a factor in some things. And the spectre of another Trump run could hover over everything like an ominous cloud on the horizon.

I'm sorry, I know we just won this election and everyone is trying to be happy and optimistic right now, and I usually am annoyed by this doom-and-gloom posting style, but this is what I'm feeling right now. I want to be happy and excited, but I am struggling to relax.
 
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Yeah. But let's not lose sight of the fact that Trump's anti-scientific approach and profound lack of empathy made the pandemic uniquely challenging for his reelection chances. It did not necessarily have to sink him and there are leaders and governors throughout the west that did a good job with it, at least initially.

I'll never forget how popular Bush was after 9/11; it's always possible to take a historic low and spin it as a victory. Just not for Trump.

No question. He was handed an opportunity to lead and botched it about as badly as possible.
My point is that he would have won had no pandemic occurred cause he'd just have been riding the coat tails of a strong economy that he had little to do with (no President really has as much of an effect on the economy as large swaths of the populace perceive), because enough folks would have just voted with their wallets which is the norm.

Once Covid hit, his presidency came to a cross roads, and he didn't just take the wrong road, he drove straight off a cliff,
 
I think everyone can agree that the battle is faaaaaaar from over because it never actually ends.

Defeating Trump was just the end of this series. Like winning the World Series. Next season still comes along. But Trump’s career is almost over, and that juicing shitbag can’t haunt us forever.
 
I find myself still anxious about the state of our body politic going forward, even with the Biden victory, for the following reasons:

1. Even with this victory, 70M people voted for Trump, and a good portion of them may view Biden as illegitimate, as ridiculous as it sounds. I truly hope that nothing suspicious happened in any state that matters, because they will run with any evidence of even the smallest irregularity.

It doesn't even matter if there was anything legitimately suspicious or not. They'll just make some shit up to fit their narrative - i.e. the campaign met it's end at a landscaping shop in north philly not because they're dumb and thought it was a luxury hotel, but rather because the nefarious democrats are burning ballots in the crematorium next door.

we DO need to reconcile why so many people in our country voted for an obviously corrupt and inept person - but fuck i honestly don't know what else can be done if his obvious body of work wasn't enough. if he went on TV tomorrow and said that all of his supporters are idiots and admit to years of criminal wrongdoing and large swaths of his supporters will think it's fake.

it will take decades to unravel this mess. if we ever can.

2. If the GOP holds on to the Senate, it could both handcuff Biden and set them up to say, 'look, Biden hasn't gotten anything done' in 2022.

3. There is already infighting within the Democratic Party. Seems like the left wing of the party kept relatively quiet long enough to win this election, but now they're starting to speak up. I largely agree with the left wing's policy goals - Single Payer, Green New Deal, Living Minimum Wage, etc - but I am not a fan of the scorched earth tactics employed by AOC, Bernie, etc. I fear this kind of antagonism within the party could be a problem.

4. The question of where does the Lincoln Project fit into all of this. These are former Republicans who have made it their mission to defeat Trump and Trumpism. But if you look around, there is disagreement within the Democratic Party about how friendly we should be to them. Some say, 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend, we need all the help we can get'. But other say, 'these people actively worked against most if not all of our policy goals for years if not decades, they are not our friends'. I guess this could be a part of #3 above.

i'm trying all three of these together because to me they're all connected.

the biggest threat to the democratic party IS the democratic party.

Trumpism has driven people away from the republicans en masse and allowed them to circle the wagons around their special brand of xenophobic nationalistic conspiracy theory driven rhetoric. We know who they are.

Who are the democrats? With the GOP rejecting civility and decency it's made the democratic party too big for it's own good.

The left has made it clear that incremental change - slowly pushing the country left with each passing year - is no longer acceptable. OK. Fine.

But how do you pass a far left agenda if nobody on the right is willing to go along with you? You can't. And even a slim majority (if we win both GA seats) won't do anything because purple senators in red states will not always go along with a far left agenda. You need a healthy margin, which doesn't seem possible without some structural changes.

On the flip side -compromise too much with the right and you're going to lose the progressives. AOC is already making noise. My main issue with the left has always been not in their ideas, but in how they can possibly push those ideas through the way our government is structured. Compromise is necessary to get anything done.

5. The SCOTUS majority and how it could affect anything and everything going forward.

6. And finally - I know this election just happened, but I still think about it - the question of whether or not Biden will run again in 2024 and the question of whether or not Trump will run again in 2024. Many have assumed that given his age, Biden will not run again, but he himself has never said that. Whether or not he has to start a re-election campaign as soon as the 2022 midterms are over could be a factor in some things. And the spectre of another Trump run could hover over everything like an ominous cloud on the horizon.

I'm sorry, I know we just won this election and everyone is trying to be happy and optimistic right now, and I usually am annoyed by this doom-and-gloom posting style, but this is what I'm feeling right now. I want to be happy and excited, but I am struggling to relax.

it's not just the issue of trump hanging out there as a possible 2024 candidate (which I think is more of a threat to the GOP than democratic candidate, be it Biden or whomever) - but you will also have jockeying for position amongst the left -from Kamala to Pete to a leftist candidate, be that AOC or someone else (i don't see Bernie running again in 2024).

but for now i'm just going to enjoy this and hope for the best.
 
Trump in 2024 will be the same age as Biden in 2020.

I agree it's probably more likely that he'll just be a nuisance and not really run, but who knows with him.

Difference is Biden isn't morbidly obese.
Trump probably needs to make a couple of life style/diet changes if he wants to see 2024, let alone run again.
 
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