US Politics XXX: The type of film Donald wants to watch Ivanka in

[Headache in a Suitcase]

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1324758193965309952

 

[Hollow Island]

Joe Gloria, the Clark County Registrar of Voters in Nevada, said the county would provide another ballot update this afternoon. Clark county posted the results of about 30,000 ballots this morning, and Joe Biden’s lead in the state has grown to 20,137 votes.
Gloria had said yesterday that the county would report the results of 51,000 ballots today, but he clarified that a staffer made an error because they incorrectly equated the number of ballots and the number of pages for the machine to process. (Some ballots had two pages.)
According to Gloria, there about 60,000 provisional ballots left to be processed. The counting is expected to continue through the weekend, Gloria said.

 

[womanfish]

I’m not dismissing womanfish and I’m not saying Biden didn’t run a good campaign.

I’m dismissing the notion that black people “showed up for Biden” and otherwise wouldn’t have shown up for other candidates, as though Joe Biden has inspired people in Obama-style proportion. That’s a distortion of the story and does an incredible disservice towards the grassroots rebuking of Trump that occurred.

Sorry I’m short on time today, cause I do agree with you that BLM was the driving force this year, especially younger voters. And while this was certainly more an anti-Trump turnout than a pro Biden. I still think that Biden was the best choice for the moment. Without the moderate suburban, Republican and senior vote - along with holding and improving margins with white and a sliver of non-college whites, it would have been really ugly.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Sorry I’m short on time today, cause I do agree with you that BLM was the driving force this year, especially younger voters. And while this was certainly more an anti-Trump turnout than a pro Biden. I still think that Biden was the best choice for the moment. Without the moderate suburban, Republican and senior vote - along with holding and improving margins with white and a sliver of non-college whites, it would have been really ugly.

Me too, so no worries to that. In general though, I don’t think you’re seeing this moderate suburban republican vote in any meaningful sense other than “not 2016” as in “they didn’t come out against Clinton.” They still came out in troves for Trump. Trump lost virtually no support from 2016 to 2020 anywhere whatsoever. More people just showed up to vote against him.

This will be more apparent as final numbers come out though - I’m willing to do the data digging to defend that argument. Trump gained support and Biden gained dramatic support, and likely very few people defected from Trump.

 

[Hewson]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324752060621840389

 

[Hewson]

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1324758193965309952

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

This will get called prior to Biden's statement tonight.

MrsSpringsteen, if you haven't already, grab your favourite photo of your Mom and put her right in front of the TV so that she can enjoy it with us.

Thank you so much Martina, I'm so touched that you remembered and mentioned her. Especially since I'm going through something brutal in my life these days.Things just keep getting worse.

Thank you❤

 

[the tourist]

So I wonder what the vote difference threshold needs to be before news outlets call PA. 30k?

 

[namkcuR]

So I wonder what the vote difference threshold needs to be before news outlets call PA. 30k?

I think Andrea Mitchell said MSNBC needed 35K.

 

[anitram]

Thank you so much Martina, I'm so touched that you remembered and mentioned her. Especially since I'm going through something brutal in my life these days.Things just keep getting worse.

Thank you❤

I'm sorry to hear, please take care of yourself and here is to a happier and better year to come.

 

[mikal]

the reason not to call it at this point is that it isn't prime time ratings hours yet.

Right? Sure seems like they’re gearing up for ratings.

 

[phanan]

So I wonder what the vote difference threshold needs to be before news outlets call PA. 30k?

The magic number for percentage difference, if I'm remembering correctly, was .5%.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

So I wonder what the vote difference threshold needs to be before news outlets call PA. 30k?

Id suspect a gap has nothing to do with it. They’re probably waiting until a statistical tie is outside of the confidence margin.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Kornacki just did a decent job of explaining it... basically there's uncertainty on which way the provisional ballots are going to break so they're waiting until the lead is large enough that it doesn't matter.

 

[phanan]

Understandable, but as others have stated, the majority of those should be blue anyway.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Yes but races don’t get called from gut feelings with strong qualitative evidence. They get called from statistical proof.

 

[phanan]

Right, I get it. But it seems like for most of the pundits out there, they'd be comfortable calling it now, whereas before, not so much.

 

[Hollow Island]

Will PA report enough for it to be called today? Biden's address suggests it but there are still 120k to go.

 

[the tourist]

Id suspect a gap has nothing to do with it. They’re probably waiting until a statistical tie is outside of the confidence margin.

Right. And I’m wondering what the number would be where a statistical tie is outside of the confidence margin.

 

[U2girl]

https://youtu.be/TeSiJmLoJd0

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Right, I get it. But it seems like for most of the pundits out there, they'd be comfortable calling it now, whereas before, not so much.

I get it but the pundits don’t make the call. They have a back room of head nerds that are collecting data from their frontline nerds, and they’re crunching numbers and determining if a call is appropriate.

Now, it’s possible that the network could step in and say “do not call the election yet” for whatever reason, but I highly doubt this is the case. They probably just have rigorous guidelines for what constitutes a called state and a called race, and probably can’t call the state because calling the state would call the race but maybe they don’t meet the confidence level for the entire race yet (GA too close, WI too close, etc)

 

[phanan]

It certainly will be interesting to see who calls it first, and how quickly after the next round of ballots come in.

 

[dazzledbylight]

I'm sorry to hear, please take care of yourself and here is to a happier and better year to come.

I'll second that.
Hopefully things will improve for you again over time.

 

[namkcuR]

I'll second that.
Hopefully things will improve for you again over time.

Thirded.

 

[gump]

Thank you so much Martina, I'm so touched that you remembered and mentioned her. Especially since I'm going through something brutal in my life these days.Things just keep getting worse.

Thank you❤

Hang in there, MrsSpringsteen. Sorry to hear you are going through a difficult period.

 

[gump]

King.

[TWEET]1324796791649435649[/TWEET]

 

[LemonMelon]

[TWEET]1324794595478249473[/TWEET]

God, I haven't laughed this hard in years.

 

[Hollow Island]

 

[Hewson]

[TWEET]1324794595478249473[/TWEET]

God, I haven't laughed this hard in years.

Maybe soothe him first with a plate of Twinkies and a big glass of Nestle Quik, then let him watch a few episodes of Teletubbies, then break the news.

 

[anitram]

God, I haven't laughed this hard in years.

Same.

Although is there not a single adult left in the WH? What's Trump going to do? Yell at them? Fire them? For God's sake all these people are even worse than he is. Embarrassing.