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Old 11-09-2020, 09:13 AM   #781
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Should it be focused on the majority? Yes.

Should we ignore the minority? Doing so would be a monumental mistake.

The numbers may look to be enormous because we're dealing in millions. But it's 52% to 48%. That's not an overwhelming mandate.

Ignoring 48% of the population is a mistake that will lead to a the rise of a new Trump, and the next Trump may not be so erratic and transactional.

If Trump didn't butcher the response to covid, even with everything else he did, we may be having a completely different conversation today. Let's not lose sight of that.


While we can’t ignore 48% of the population a 4-5% win in a polarized electorate does give Biden a mandate. Just ask W Bush who declared one after barely pulling off a win in 2004.

Interesting as results are coming into focus at how much better Biden did than Democrats in general. He was the right candidate for this particular election.

Democrats have problems, mostly messaging problems. Let’s hope the nonvoters Trump energized go back into their bunkers.

If someone can show us how to energize liberal nonvoters in that Trumpy way, I’m all ears. I think Obama was the closest we had, but that was more getting the base to turn out, not turning out nonvoters.
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Old 11-09-2020, 09:31 AM   #782
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If Trump didn't butcher the response to covid, even with everything else he did, we may be having a completely different conversation today. Let's not lose sight of that.
Absolutely.
If Covid never hit, with the way the economy was going, Trump would have been re-elected with ease. No doubt in my mind.
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Old 11-09-2020, 09:31 AM   #783
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While we can’t ignore 48% of the population a 4-5% win in a polarized electorate does give Biden a mandate. Just ask W Bush who declared one after barely pulling off a win in 2004.

Interesting as results are coming into focus at how much better Biden did than Democrats in general. He was the right candidate for this particular election.

Democrats have problems, mostly messaging problems. Let’s hope the nonvoters Trump energized go back into their bunkers.

If someone can show us how to energize liberal nonvoters in that Trumpy way, I’m all ears. I think Obama was the closest we had, but that was more getting the base to turn out, not turning out nonvoters.
Sure - I didn't say he didn't have mandate. It's just not an overwhelming one.

And when you consider just how stark the differences between the two sides are? There's much work to be done.

As you said a huge part of this is in the messaging. The Democrats are woefully bad at messaging.
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Old 11-09-2020, 10:50 AM   #784
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https://www.inquirer.com/news/four-s...mpression=true
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Old 11-09-2020, 10:50 AM   #785
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https://www.huffpost.com/entry/how-d...bfac5164a9?d6f

How the polls hurt Dems in the Senate.

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Voters in these states reverted to form. GOP internal polling showed that as voters across the board became more aware Biden was likely to win the presidency in the final weeks, it became harder for Democratic candidates to win over the Republicans and conservative-leaning independents they needed to win. The chance to compete slipped away from Democrats in Kansas and Montana. Greenfield’s advantage over Ernst in Iowa ― one poll showed the Democrat winning 10% of Trump voters ― evaporated.

The four major groups spending on Senate races ― The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority PAC for Democrats, plus the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Senate Leadership Fund for the GOP ― put a combined $660 million into Senate races across the country. In the end, roughly $152 million of that total went to races that were decided by 10 percentage points or more, according to data from OpenSecrets.
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Old 11-09-2020, 10:53 AM   #786
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I guessed that one... pretty sure there’s some poorly written post of mine that says “the best place to be is barely behind in the polls.”

Though also when I get the time I’m going to write a nice thread about the silent minority and why they absolutely exist and are present in every single poll
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Old 11-09-2020, 10:57 AM   #787
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Democrats have problems, mostly messaging problems. Let’s hope the nonvoters Trump energized go back into their bunkers.

If someone can show us how to energize liberal nonvoters in that Trumpy way, I’m all ears. I think Obama was the closest we had, but that was more getting the base to turn out, not turning out nonvoters.
I am not the biggest fan of AOC, mostly based on policy and the fact that I don't view her as particularly pragmatic.

But she is 100% right on the incompetence of the DNC and establishment Democrats more generally regarding how to run an election, energize the base and bring new voters to the polls. And this is nothing new, it's a decades-old problem. It really started with AM radio, which is well-suited to the Republican voter in rural areas who spends a lot of time in their cars, covering long distances. The damage inflicted by right-wing talk show hosts, many of whom make Rush Limbaugh sound moderate, over the last 3 decades or so has been immeasurable. These are the people who were Fox News before there was Fox News and who continue to dominate the airwaves. The left ceded the airways to the right, which was understandable in part since your urban citizen isn't likely to listen to dozens of hours of radio every week. But the left has also underestimated the power of AM radio.

Then came Fox News, "fair and balanced" and the left basically ceded the cable news wars to the right. You can argue that MSNBC has since emerged as left-leaning, but there is still a Grand Canyon sized gap between what and how they report vs. Fox News. Plus, again, you have the challenge that most Democratic voters are urban and they just no longer watch that much cable tv.

Then we had the social media networks. I joined Facebook in 2006 when I was in law school, and later that year they expanded it to anyone over 13, there was no longer a student requirement. For many years, you had generally younger people on there. Certainly in 2008 when Obama ran, FB was dominated by left-leaning users. However, since then you've had such rapid expansion that nowadays it's a hotbed for batshit crazy things of every stripe. And the left has ceded to the right, in a format in which they actually held the advantage for a long time.

Digital media is the future, and the right used that with Brexit and with Trump's election to data mine and identify non-voters whom they could bring into their fold and use to drag them across the line when margins were razor thin.

The left, other than AOC & crowd, seems happy to yell about the unfairness of social media spreading lies, Russian and other bots, Zuckerberg and so on instead of themselves developing a cogent digital media action plan.

And that's also part of the reason why you need to get rid of dinosaurs like Dianne Feinstein and why Nancy Pelosi should also step aside.
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Old 11-09-2020, 11:19 AM   #788
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it seems that the Qultists have convinced themselves that the four seasons debacle was entirely deliberate. you see, the crematorium next door to the landscaping business is where the deep state baby-eating satanist cabal is burning trump voters' ballots. and rudy was sending out a signal that this is the place that it's all going down.

because, you know, rudy giuliani is totally the type of person who communicates in subtle secret codes that only a select few people in the know will pick up on. rudy looking like a blubbering loser on national television was totally fake, just a genius move in an eternal game of 4D chess.

it also totally makes sense that if you know election fraud is happening RIGHT NOW in the building next door and all the media is assembled there, you would broadcast super-secret signals to a tiny fraction of a percentage of the public in advance of some undetermined future action to be done at some undetermined time, rather than just saying "hey you guys with all the cameras, go look in there".

i Qan't even
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Old 11-09-2020, 11:30 AM   #789
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Absolutely.
If Covid never hit, with the way the economy was going, Trump would have been re-elected with ease. No doubt in my mind.
Yeah. But let's not lose sight of the fact that Trump's anti-scientific approach and profound lack of empathy made the pandemic uniquely challenging for his reelection chances. It did not necessarily have to sink him and there are leaders and governors throughout the west that did a good job with it, at least initially.

I'll never forget how popular Bush was after 9/11; it's always possible to take a historic low and spin it as a victory. Just not for Trump.
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Old 11-09-2020, 11:52 AM   #790
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If I'm not mistaken, most leaders' popularity rose as a rally-round-the-flag effect with COVID. Trump's incompetence, not COVID itself, was responsible (as LM noted above).
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Old 11-09-2020, 12:02 PM   #791
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AOC spoke about the citizens who chose not to vote out of apathy. The mindset of nothing ever changes so why bother...

This is where the Democrats need to pounce. Follow her lead on social media, digital world and outreach.

But most of all

Change leadership. When people see the same damn names at the top for the last 40 plus years, it’s easy to see the view of nothing matters (and part of that is on the idea that big changes happen overnight with our low attention span).

You start putting younger people in charge, and you may get more engagement from those that feel they’re left out.

Same time tho, You’re faced with an clear threat to our way of being (authoritarian, pandemic, climate change) and you still say nahhhhh, is there really anything that can be done to change your mind ?
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Old 11-09-2020, 12:13 PM   #792
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If I'm not mistaken, most leaders' popularity rose as a rally-round-the-flag effect with COVID. Trump's incompetence, not COVID itself, was responsible (as LM noted above).
Exactly.

We have a premier in Ontario (Rob Ford's brother) who wasn't well liked at all and he had huge approval ratings from March-May or so when he really took charge and totally deferred to the scientists. He now seems to have given up on governing so he's sinking again.
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Old 11-09-2020, 12:31 PM   #793
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it seems that the Qultists have convinced themselves that the four seasons debacle was entirely deliberate. you see, the crematorium next door to the landscaping business is where the deep state baby-eating satanist cabal is burning trump voters' ballots. and rudy was sending out a signal that this is the place that it's all going down.

because, you know, rudy giuliani is totally the type of person who communicates in subtle secret codes that only a select few people in the know will pick up on. rudy looking like a blubbering loser on national television was totally fake, just a genius move in an eternal game of 4D chess.

it also totally makes sense that if you know election fraud is happening RIGHT NOW in the building next door and all the media is assembled there, you would broadcast super-secret signals to a tiny fraction of a percentage of the public in advance of some undetermined future action to be done at some undetermined time, rather than just saying "hey you guys with all the cameras, go look in there".

i Qan't even
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Old 11-09-2020, 12:59 PM   #794
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welp - trump just canned Esper.
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Old 11-09-2020, 01:00 PM   #795
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he's 100% not running, but he's 100% doing this:

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/...59022529028099
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Old 11-09-2020, 01:01 PM   #796
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edit: double post, my b.
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Old 11-09-2020, 01:04 PM   #797
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he's 100% not running, but he's 100% doing this:

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/...59022529028099
So this is sort of admitting he lost? Surely the republicans will have grown weary of him by 2024.
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Old 11-09-2020, 01:15 PM   #798
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NASA chief out as well
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Old 11-09-2020, 01:20 PM   #799
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NASA chief out as well


Jim is stepping aside because he knows he will get canned because he’s an extremely atypical political appointee to a scientific organization. I give him all the credit in the world for not fucking the whole thing up whitely like he could’ve... he adapted to it as well as a climate science denying congressman from Oklahoma appointed by Donald Trump could’ve

The Esper thing is a little more concerning.
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Old 11-09-2020, 01:39 PM   #800
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he's 100% not running, but he's 100% doing this:

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/...59022529028099
I think that will be more of a problem for the Republicans.

Imagine the shit show of a primary if he decides to participate...
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