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Old 11-06-2020, 12:50 PM   #381
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Not sure that first statement is true about black voters not loving Joe Biden. I would say 40 and up love Joe Biden, and the 18-39's don't dislike him.
Biden's numbers with black voters in the Dem primary were in the 80's. EVERY other candidate was in single digits, with only Warren and Bernie in the teens.

A strong arguement can be made, and I believe, that Bernie would have won the big 3 states in the midwest, not because of black turnout that Biden got in Milwaukee, Detroit and Philly, but by shrinking the margins for Trump in rural, non-college smaller red counties across all those states. I also don't think that the suburbs would have been very Bernie friendly, which please, lets not overlook them because they are predominantly white, moderate folks. They came out heavily for Biden because of who he his, and his character and temperament.

But the rest of the Dem candidates would have lost. Plain and simple.
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I vehemently disagree. You’re attributing black turnout to the fact that Joe Biden was candidate and citing the fact that he was the most recognizable and moderate of candidates as to why black voters showed up in troves.

This is entirely ignorant of their self-organization irrespective of politics in the name of Black Lives Matter. It blows my kind how anybody can suggest that black turnout can be accredited to ANYTHING but BLM and the Trumpism response to it.
I give BLM all the credit in the world. I give the entire black vote all the credit in the world. They won this election for us. But I have to agree with womanfish that I think you're being a little dismissive of Biden.

Would Bernie have won? He may well have. Would Warren have won? She was my choice in the primaries, so I really want to believe she would have, but in my heart, I don't think so.

But I just think we have to give Biden credit simply for running a damn good campaign. There were no major missteps. He never said or did anything that the opposition could use effectively against him. They tried with the Hunter stuff, but it didn't work on who it would've needed to work on. Biden was steady and calm and consistent and avoided any major gaffes(except maybe that whole if you don't vote for me you ain't black thing). I just feel like it's not as easy as it sounds to do that over the course of an 18-month campaign, particularly in the middle of a pandemic.

Bernie may have won, but I don't think he would've had the calming or comforting effect on people that Biden has had; he's a more incendiary politician than Biden is. He or people that work for him may have pulled some "we're coming for the Democratic establishment" crap again, and that could have been off-putting to some of the people who ended up voting for Biden. And given that we're seeing some pretty slim margins in a lot of places, I think you have to take that into consideration.

Even as a fan from the Obama days, I was skeptical of Biden during the primaries, as he too often looked confused and slow in those debates, but once it became a one-on-one thing with Trump, he got much better. So I give him a ton of credit for the way he ran his campaign and the way he handled himself.

And I say all that as someone who is to the left of Biden and is concerned, particularly if the GOP does indeed hold on to the Senate, about how far he'll be willing (or not) to go to get things done.
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Old 11-06-2020, 12:51 PM   #382
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Oh, please, let's hope this means this will be the last we ever hear of QAnon and its insanity.
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Old 11-06-2020, 12:55 PM   #383
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Oh, please, let's hope this means this will be the last we ever hear of QAnon and its insanity.


Doubtful. Q’s probably just taking a little break to go dream it all up again.
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Old 11-06-2020, 12:55 PM   #384
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Pennsylvania +12,000
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Old 11-06-2020, 12:56 PM   #385
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So Vox called the race 3 hours ago, for whatever that’s worth.
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:00 PM   #386
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So Vox called the race 3 hours ago, for whatever that’s worth.

They partner with Decision Desk HQ.
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:00 PM   #387
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I give BLM all the credit in the world. I give the entire black vote all the credit in the world. They won this election for us. But I have to agree with womanfish that I think you're being a little dismissive of Biden.



Would Bernie have won? He may well have. Would Warren have won? She was my choice in the primaries, so I really want to believe she would have, but in my heart, I don't think so.



But I just think we have to give Biden credit simply for running a damn good campaign. There were no major missteps. He never said or did anything that the opposition could use effectively against him. They tried with the Hunter stuff, but it didn't work on who it would've needed to work on. Biden was steady and calm and consistent and avoided any major gaffes(except maybe that whole if you don't vote for me you ain't black thing). I just feel like it's not as easy as it sounds to do that over the course of an 18-month campaign, particularly in the middle of a pandemic.



Bernie may have won, but I don't think he would've had the calming or comforting effect on people that Biden has had; he's a more incendiary politician than Biden is. He or people that work for him may have pulled some "we're coming for the Democratic establishment" crap again, and that could have been off-putting to some of the people who ended up voting for Biden. And given that we're seeing some pretty slim margins in a lot of places, I think you have to take that into consideration.



Even as a fan from the Obama days, I was skeptical of Biden during the primaries, as he too often looked confused and slow in those debates, but once it became a one-on-one thing with Trump, he got much better. So I give him a ton of credit for the way he ran his campaign and the way he handled himself.



And I say all that as someone who is to the left of Biden and is concerned, particularly if the GOP does indeed hold on to the Senate, about how far he'll be willing (or not) to go to get things done.

I’m not dismissing womanfish and I’m not saying Biden didn’t run a good campaign.

I’m dismissing the notion that black people “showed up for Biden” and otherwise wouldn’t have shown up for other candidates, as though Joe Biden has inspired people in Obama-style proportion. That’s a distortion of the story and does an incredible disservice towards the grassroots rebuking of Trump that occurred.
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:07 PM   #388
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This will get called prior to Biden's statement tonight.

MrsSpringsteen, if you haven't already, grab your favourite photo of your Mom and put her right in front of the TV so that she can enjoy it with us.
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:15 PM   #389
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I think Biden scheduling the speech pushes the networks a bit. Everyone has seen enough, there is no need to wait any longer and feed conspiracies.
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:15 PM   #390
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Agreed. No reason not to call it at this point.
the reason not to call it at this point is that it isn't prime time ratings hours yet.
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:19 PM   #391
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https://twitter.com/billscher/status...58193965309952
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:24 PM   #392
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Joe Gloria, the Clark County Registrar of Voters in Nevada, said the county would provide another ballot update this afternoon. Clark county posted the results of about 30,000 ballots this morning, and Joe Biden’s lead in the state has grown to 20,137 votes.
Gloria had said yesterday that the county would report the results of 51,000 ballots today, but he clarified that a staffer made an error because they incorrectly equated the number of ballots and the number of pages for the machine to process. (Some ballots had two pages.)
According to Gloria, there about 60,000 provisional ballots left to be processed. The counting is expected to continue through the weekend, Gloria said.
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:26 PM   #393
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I’m not dismissing womanfish and I’m not saying Biden didn’t run a good campaign.

I’m dismissing the notion that black people “showed up for Biden” and otherwise wouldn’t have shown up for other candidates, as though Joe Biden has inspired people in Obama-style proportion. That’s a distortion of the story and does an incredible disservice towards the grassroots rebuking of Trump that occurred.
Sorry I’m short on time today, cause I do agree with you that BLM was the driving force this year, especially younger voters. And while this was certainly more an anti-Trump turnout than a pro Biden. I still think that Biden was the best choice for the moment. Without the moderate suburban, Republican and senior vote - along with holding and improving margins with white and a sliver of non-college whites, it would have been really ugly.
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:31 PM   #394
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Sorry I’m short on time today, cause I do agree with you that BLM was the driving force this year, especially younger voters. And while this was certainly more an anti-Trump turnout than a pro Biden. I still think that Biden was the best choice for the moment. Without the moderate suburban, Republican and senior vote - along with holding and improving margins with white and a sliver of non-college whites, it would have been really ugly.


Me too, so no worries to that. In general though, I don’t think you’re seeing this moderate suburban republican vote in any meaningful sense other than “not 2016” as in “they didn’t come out against Clinton.” They still came out in troves for Trump. Trump lost virtually no support from 2016 to 2020 anywhere whatsoever. More people just showed up to vote against him.

This will be more apparent as final numbers come out though - I’m willing to do the data digging to defend that argument. Trump gained support and Biden gained dramatic support, and likely very few people defected from Trump.
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:32 PM   #395
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:35 PM   #396
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:40 PM   #397
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This will get called prior to Biden's statement tonight.

MrsSpringsteen, if you haven't already, grab your favourite photo of your Mom and put her right in front of the TV so that she can enjoy it with us.
Thank you so much Martina, I'm so touched that you remembered and mentioned her. Especially since I'm going through something brutal in my life these days.Things just keep getting worse.

Thank you❤
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:42 PM   #398
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So I wonder what the vote difference threshold needs to be before news outlets call PA. 30k?
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:45 PM   #399
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So I wonder what the vote difference threshold needs to be before news outlets call PA. 30k?
I think Andrea Mitchell said MSNBC needed 35K.
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:49 PM   #400
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Thank you so much Martina, I'm so touched that you remembered and mentioned her. Especially since I'm going through something brutal in my life these days.Things just keep getting worse.

Thank you❤
I'm sorry to hear, please take care of yourself and here is to a happier and better year to come.
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