US Politics XXX: The type of film Donald wants to watch Ivanka in

[iron yuppie]

[TWEET]1324465283352858624[/TWEET]

Hahaha maybe this isn't the darkest timeline after all.

They're going to call it before Biden even has a reported lead? That just seems like a troll job to me.

 

[Danny Boy]

don't think this has been posted yet: https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

That trend looks bad in Arizona? Or am I reading it wrong?

 

[LuckyNumber7]

don't think this has been posted yet: https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

Beautiful. Me love data table.

Only concern is how much is Forsyth County and how red or blue are those coming in. If absentee from that county are coming in even or blue despite the red bias, Joe will get GA. Otherwise, maybe not.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

They're going to call it before Biden even has a reported lead? That just seems like a troll job to me.

This happens all the time?

VA was called with like 15% of voting in and Trump obliterating Biden something like 66-33.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

That trend looks bad in Arizona? Or am I reading it wrong?

Nope. Not wrong. At his rate if everything were constant it’s Trump moving ahead there.

But what’s not clear on these tables is where the new dump game from.

 

[iron yuppie]

That's not a solid analogy in that VA was never considered a central battleground like PA was.

 

[womanfish]

Nope. Not wrong. At his rate if everything were constant it’s Trump moving ahead there.

But what’s not clear on these tables is where the new dump game from.

Odd that Cohn of the NYT is saying Biden should make it. So frustrating

 

[LemonMelon]

That's not a solid analogy in that VA was never considered a central battleground like PA was.

It works in that we are expecting a significant drop from Philly that will be akin to what we saw in Fairfax, VA. Information like this is why states get called.

But yes, PA will be closer. Not that close though.

 

[LemonMelon]

Odd that Cohn of the NYT is saying Biden should make it. So frustrating

They are aware of the demographics in the remaining counties and the nature of the remaining ballots, when they were handed in, and by whom. AZ will stay blue.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Odd that Cohn of the NYT is saying Biden should make it. So frustrating

He can probably confirm that absentee ballots in Forsyth are coming in even or better for Biden.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

That's not a solid analogy in that VA was never considered a central battleground like PA was.

Whoever is doing their stats (for all companies and entities) have to make a statistical justification. If all the votes remaining were in philly and same day voting was x and absentee early was y and late absentee was z and any calculation using x y or z produces the same result to some confidence level (idk maybe they use 99% confidence or whatever), they will call it.

The larger their sample is of x y or z, the tighter their confidence interval will be.

I’m not trying to “splain” this to you like you don’t know, but why would it be any different regardless of whether or not it’s a battleground? Virtually everyone is saying Biden might win PA by 100k. If that’s true and that’s the pace, your confidence metrics only increase when more votes come in in strong favor of Biden. It could very well be that multiple entities are sitting just outside their own confidence intervals for however they’re approaching and just waiting for another 50k votes in the trending direction to call it.

 

[iron yuppie]

Whoever is doing their stats (for all companies and entities) have to make a statistical justification. If all the votes remaining were in philly and same day voting was x and absentee early was y and late absentee was z and any calculation using x y or z produces the same result to some confidence level (idk maybe they use 99% confidence or whatever), they will call it.

The larger their sample is of x y or z, the tighter their confidence interval will be.

I’m not trying to “splain” this to you like you don’t know, but why would it be any different regardless of whether or not it’s a battleground? Virtually everyone is saying Biden might win PA by 100k. If that’s true and that’s the pace, your confidence metrics only increase when more votes come in in strong favor of Biden. It could very well be that multiple entities are sitting just outside their own confidence intervals for however they’re approaching and just waiting for another 50k votes in the trending direction to call it.

That makes sense, thanks. I can't claim to fully understand how confidence intervals work but I will take your word for it.

 

[anitram]

Dana Perino reporting Trump to make a statement at 6:30.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I'm sure it's not to concede

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

https://twitter.com/DaveMasonBOL/status/1324486016892370947?s=19

 

[Hollow Island]

He's probably going to threaten to sue the whole country

 

[LemonMelon]

He's probably going to threaten to sue the whole country

All we wanted was another stimulus check...

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

As far as Fox News is concerned, allegedly Trump called Rupert Murdoch on election night. Furious that they had called Arizona for Biden. Rupert wouldn't give in to him.

Yes Rupert and his sons keep their Trump sycophants on that channel for ratings and money. But at this point I think the family has probably had enough of Trump.

A few weeks ago I watched The Loudest Voice miniseries with Russell Crowe as Roger Ailes. It's based on a reporter who had inside access to info about Ailes. Ailes was Trump's ally there. Rupert's sons hated Ailes.

I do think Rupert and his sons could be behind trolling Trump via Fox News. And if true I think that's delicious.

 

[BEAL]

America, you’re fired

His talk at 6:30 is to be him whining non stop

Deep state
So unfair
Treated so horribly by the press
And now, even the GOP treats him bad

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Maybe “I’m announcing new charges against Hunter Biden”

Or “i didn’t lose because I resigned before it ended so we have to do it over again otherwise I’m still president.”

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Jim Acosta just completely ripped into Trump. More than usual.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

I know CNN has plenty of faults and flaws. But I think Abby Phillip is so good, a real star on that network.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Illegal votes?

 

[gump]

They should be calling PA already.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Kwinipeeawk

 

[Hollow Island]

I want the press gallery to spend the next twp months asking him about every one of things he said would be happening "in two weeks" over the course of his presidency.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Wahhhhhh

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Kwinipeeawk

Yeah that was funny. Tough word for him

 

[phanan]

Stop airing this shit.

 

[the tourist]

This is mind-numbing.