US Politics XXX: The type of film Donald wants to watch Ivanka in

[Irvine511]

apparently Kayleigh has started deleting her tweets on the way out.

 

[gump]

I'm curious about how the GOP reacts to this. I think the inroads they had with Latinos as well as the really high turnout they had might be a mirage. Trump is not easily replicated even if one emulates him, and I am not sure the Trump base will be there next time without agitator-in-chief. I assume their next primary will be a bloodbath between the "polite" Republican and the Tom Cottons of the world.

But really, the point above about how to fight minority rule is the key question. Unfortunately Democrats seem to be pretty doomed here as this is the cycle that determined re-districting. It was a bloodbath on the local/state level. So I expect even more entrenched minority rule through the next decade.

 

[phanan]

i will say that it is time for Nancy to let go of the gavel. i think she's done a good job these past two years. Trump was impeached, and despite some loses (which i'm sure we'll talk about soon) in the House, Trump has lost and we have 2 more years of Democratic control.

but time to step down. fresh blood. young blood.

Definitely agree.

 

[gump]

All of those states have demographic splits to prove that black people by and large carried us on their backs, and I’m willing to bet a gazillion bucks it was not because they love Joe Biden.

Biden outperformed Hillary for two main reasons: 1) some white people in fact changed their mind about Donald Trump (hence the down ballot losses for democrats... all red cards with one not-red for president), and 2) Hillary Clinton was one of the most reviled candidates for president in modern times. Until, of course, Donald J. Trump.

I can’t express #2 enough. That’s how he got elected and that’s also how he is going to lose. Were this a regular republican I would buy your argument 100%, but given that it’s Trump, they didn’t care. They hated Trump, just the same way they didn’t care that Trump was a piece of shit because they hated Clinton.

I don't know where I stand on the "could another candidate win" question. But I really don't think you can make this claim given that black people overwhelmingly gave Biden the nomination in the primaries, and that Warren/Sanders really underperformed in that group. Biden's primary campaign was dead until South Carolina.

 

[mikal]

Arizona just went up for Biden!

 

[BEAL]

I may have written this earlier, but as the popular vote goes, this was t all that close, and will be even less close once they finish counting CA and NY.

This is a center/center-left population where the electoral system favors land over people, making the Senate and the Electoral College skew everything to the right of where the population as a whole is.

It doesn’t matter if you win DC by 93%. Or Sunnyside, Queens by 98%. Or Santa Monica. You have to win places like NC and GA and AZ. It sucks and the EC should go, but that’s simply the task at hand. I voted for Warren, and I think she would have been crushed.

So let’s enjoy this. And then figure out how to change our electoral process to prevent permanent minoritarian rule.

Same. Voted for Warren, and really thought a mom could win over the divide. Not a chance.

As you said most of the country is left of center but when it comes to the election

Medicare for all
Defund the police
Identity politics
Green New Deal

Those won’t win you the few states that matter. Joe was smart to basically provide non answers when asked about any of the above. And for the record I’m for all of the above minus the wording of the police one. I’d like to see complete overhaul of how we police a society.

The Dems need to figure out why minority voters flocked in even greater numbers to Trump and GOP this time. I read that the LBG&T community doubled in voter turnout for Trump.

We need to focus on an agnostic system versus always focusing on race. Fix the laws which will in turn fix racial biases.

Maybe Medicare for all picks up steam in those purple to red communities if the Supreme Court does indeed gut the law or make it worse.

I believe Biden needs to focus nearly all of his presidency on getting covid under control. Win the pandemic and you set up 2024 a little easier.

But it’s going to be challenging. GOP have every reason to block Joe and recovery as they see it as a way to win back power

 

[DaveC]

 

[anitram]

i will say that it is time for Nancy to let go of the gavel. i think she's done a good job these past two years. Trump was impeached, and despite some loses (which i'm sure we'll talk about soon) in the House, Trump has lost and we have 2 more years of Democratic control.

but time to step down. fresh blood. young blood.

I absolutely agree. 2022 will be very important and she needs to not be at the helm.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I don't know where I stand on the "could another candidate win" question. But I really don't think you can make this claim given that black people overwhelmingly gave Biden the nomination in the primaries, and that Warren/Sanders really underperformed in that group. Biden's primary campaign was dead until South Carolina.

This.

African American voters are the reason why Biden won the primary, and they will be the reason he wins the presidency.

Obviously that vote is not a monolith, but I don't know how you can make the statement that Biden had nothing to do with it when it's been consistent since South Carolina.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

i absolutely agree. 2022 will be very important and she needs to not be at the helm.

100%

 

[LemonMelon]

Call Arizona. Everywhere.

[TWEET]1324744184176148481[/TWEET]

 

[Hollow Island]

I'm curious about how the GOP reacts to this. I think the inroads they had with Latinos as well as the really high turnout they had might be a mirage. Trump is not easily replicated even if one emulates him, and I am not sure the Trump base will be there next time without agitator-in-chief. I assume their next primary will be a bloodbath between the "polite" Republican and the Tom Cottons of the world.

I think that the GOP will be entirely taken over the worm brained conspiracy mob. The social media/propaganda media/evangelical church axis will probably only grow in strength and seduce more and more more people.

A while ago I saw that Latinos were the fastest growing demographic for evangelical Christianity. I hope that statistic was incorrect! People were putting their hopes on changing demographics to cripple the GOP (as much as the EC would allow, anyway), but that demographic shift would be nullified or blunted if they also became members of apocalyptic Christian extremist sects.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I don't know where I stand on the "could another candidate win" question. But I really don't think you can make this claim given that black people overwhelmingly gave Biden the nomination in the primaries, and that Warren/Sanders really underperformed in that group. Biden's primary campaign was dead until South Carolina.

No doubt, the southern black voting bloc is more moderate. They’re more tied to religion, too. Those don’t bode well for progressive candidates.

But BLM was in fact why voter turnout was high in these places, and BLM was why they decisively voted against Trump. And they would’ve done so regardless of the candidate. I know 2020 was a long year, but please don’t forget that it was only May when the military was in the streets because of agent orange’s unwillingness to address and support black people.

That’s why they showed up in big numbers. Nothing about their percentages suggest that republican blacks defected to the left either. In fact that opposite still might be true. What’s clear is turnout happened. Donald Trump is why the turnout happened, not Joe Biden.

 

[Hollow Island]

This.

African American voters are the reason why Biden won the primary, and they will be the reason he wins the presidency.

Obviously that vote is not a monolith, but I don't know how you can make the statement that Biden had nothing to do with it when it's been consistent since South Carolina.

Hooooold the fuck on, bub. Didn't Biden win because the corrupt DNC robbed Sanders of his rightful place upon the throne?

 

[Hollow Island]

Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s secretary of state, has confirmed there will be a recount in the state.
“There will be a recount in Georgia,” Raffensberger said in Atlanta, promising transparency in the process.
Given how close the presidential race is in Georgia, it was expected that the state would conduct a recount.
As of now, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by just 1,579 votes in Georgia, representing a virtual tie.
The recount will also have huge implications for control of the US Senate. As of now, Republican incumbent David Perdue’s vote share in his race has dipped below 50%, which would force a January runoff.
The other Georgia Senate race is already headed to a runoff. If both Georgia seats are up for grabs in January, it’s possible Democrats could take control of the Senate if they won both those races and the White House.

Would if that margin holds why would they recount it? Could there really be 1500 errors?

 

[womanfish]

Assuming this lead holds, I've got to hand it Womanfish, who was right from the beginning about Biden being well-suited to taking down Trump. I was as skeptical as anyone about that, but here we are.

Thank you for the shout out. I will say that I was a Biden supporter from the get go, but also loved Warren and liked Bernie, and feel that Bernie would have probably won as well. I just knew that Biden had more paths.

That said, I also know that I was way off in the end on the support for Biden AND for Trump in the end. I don't have a lot of time right now, so I won't go into that now.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Hooooold the fuck on, bub. Didn't Biden win because the corrupt DNC robbed Sanders of his rightful place upon the throne?

My bad.

 

[Danny Boy]

Call Arizona. Everywhere.

[TWEET]1324744184176148481[/TWEET]

IIRC, Trump needs to average about 58% in these drops and he's not getting it.

Watching Wolf and John King on CNN this morning, and they are just flat our calling Trump a liar. Interesting how the rhetoric has changed.

 

[mikal]

An I seeing that Trump now gained a bunch in AZ?

 

[anitram]

Watching Wolf and John King on CNN this morning, and they are just flat our calling Trump a liar. Interesting how the rhetoric has changed.

The media can also fuck off for not doing their job for 4 years.

Suddenly he's a liar...

 

[BEAL]

IIRC, Trump needs to average about 58% in these drops and he's not getting it.

Watching Wolf and John King on CNN this morning, and they are just flat our calling Trump a liar. Interesting how the rhetoric has changed.

That’s because the execs of the media companies have nothing to really fear anymore with trump

He was good for their ratings but still posed a threat with a second term.

Now they see he really has no more power

 

[womanfish]

All of those states have demographic splits to prove that black people by and large carried us on their backs, and I’m willing to bet a gazillion bucks it was not because they love Joe Biden.

Biden outperformed Hillary for two main reasons: 1) some white people in fact changed their mind about Donald Trump (hence the down ballot losses for democrats... all red cards with one not-red for president), and 2) Hillary Clinton was one of the most reviled candidates for president in modern times. Until, of course, Donald J. Trump.

I can’t express #2 enough. That’s how he got elected and that’s also how he is going to lose. Were this a regular republican I would buy your argument 100%, but given that it’s Trump, they didn’t care. They hated Trump, just the same way they didn’t care that Trump was a piece of shit because they hated Clinton.

Not sure that first statement is true about black voters not loving Joe Biden. I would say 40 and up love Joe Biden, and the 18-39's don't dislike him.
Biden's numbers with black voters in the Dem primary were in the 80's. EVERY other candidate was in single digits, with only Warren and Bernie in the teens.

A strong arguement can be made, and I believe, that Bernie would have won the big 3 states in the midwest, not because of black turnout that Biden got in Milwaukee, Detroit and Philly, but by shrinking the margins for Trump in rural, non-college smaller red counties across all those states. I also don't think that the suburbs would have been very Bernie friendly, which please, lets not overlook them because they are predominantly white, moderate folks. They came out heavily for Biden because of who he his, and his character and temperament.

But the rest of the Dem candidates would have lost. Plain and simple.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Would if that margin holds why would they recount it? Could there really be 1500 errors?

Well no, but they'd like to try and keep Purdue in office as well.

Plus they're super racist and all, so that ATL flipped the state has to be eating away at Kemp and friends.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1324730812496027649?s=19

 

[Danny Boy]

9,000 vote lead now in Pennsylvania. Somebody call this bitch.

Are the #MAGAtts still cheering, "Stop the count?"

 

[Danny Boy]

20,000 vote lead in Nevada.

Biden got 65% of the last Clark County dump.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Not sure that first statement is true about black voters not loving Joe Biden. I would say 40 and up love Joe Biden, and the 18-39's don't dislike him.
Biden's numbers with black voters in the Dem primary were in the 80's. EVERY other candidate was in single digits, with only Warren and Bernie in the teens.

A strong arguement can be made, and I believe, that Bernie would have won the big 3 states in the midwest, not because of black turnout that Biden got in Milwaukee, Detroit and Philly, but by shrinking the margins for Trump in rural, non-college smaller red counties across all those states. I also don't think that the suburbs would have been very Bernie friendly, which please, lets not overlook them because they are predominantly white, moderate folks. They came out heavily for Biden because of who he his, and his character and temperament.

But the rest of the Dem candidates would have lost. Plain and simple.

I vehemently disagree. You’re attributing black turnout to the fact that Joe Biden was candidate and citing the fact that he was the most recognizable and moderate of candidates as to why black voters showed up in troves.

This is entirely ignorant of their self-organization irrespective of politics in the name of Black Lives Matter. It blows my kind how anybody can suggest that black turnout can be accredited to ANYTHING but BLM and the Trumpism response to it.

 

[phanan]

An I seeing that Trump now gained a bunch in AZ?

He gained, but not at the rate he needs.

 

[gump]

I think that the GOP will be entirely taken over the worm brained conspiracy mob. The social media/propaganda media/evangelical church axis will probably only grow in strength and seduce more and more more people.

A while ago I saw that Latinos were the fastest growing demographic for evangelical Christianity. I hope that statistic was incorrect! People were putting their hopes on changing demographics to cripple the GOP (as much as the EC would allow, anyway), but that demographic shift would be nullified or blunted if they also became members of apocalyptic Christian extremist sects.

Yeah, there's a clear shift in political coalitions right now. One of the questions I have is whether the non-religious, white working class that had traditionally been blue in the north will ever return to Dems. I don't think it's likely, but I am not sure the GOP can replicate Trump's appeal with them.

I want to see more data on the Latino vote this year. I wonder if the problems were more localized in FL and Texas but not elsewhere. That will matter a lot.

No doubt, the southern black voting bloc is more moderate. They’re more tied to religion, too. Those don’t bode well for progressive candidates.

But BLM was in fact why voter turnout was high in these places, and BLM was why they decisively voted against Trump. And they would’ve done so regardless of the candidate. I know 2020 was a long year, but please don’t forget that it was only May when the military was in the streets because of agent orange’s unwillingness to address and support black people.

That’s why they showed up in big numbers. Nothing about their percentages suggest that republican blacks defected to the left either. In fact that opposite still might be true. What’s clear is turnout happened. Donald Trump is why the turnout happened, not Joe Biden.

I don't disagree that Trump is the reason for the turnout, but I don't think we can have evidence to suggest that the turnout from the Black community would be there for Sanders, considering how reluctant they were to embrace him in the first place.

The media can also fuck off for not doing their job for 4 years.

Suddenly he's a liar...

Seriously. If you can only stand up to this shitshow when he is no longer in power, fuck off. I think the NYT finally decided to use to word lie to describe Trump. Yesterday. After 4 fucking years. Can't wait to forget that Maggie Haberman exists.

 

[gump]

20,000 vote lead in Nevada.

Biden got 65% of the last Clark County dump.

It's dooooooone.