Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
8 Days to go.
Sphincter tightening time.
Sphincter tightening time.
US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell
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MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Who is worse at their job right now-Trump or Cam Newton. Discuss
I have to go with Trump still
I have to go with Trump still
OP
OP
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
Who's a more capable back up? Pence or Stidham? Gonna have to give that one to Pence.
OP
OP
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
Coronavirus even affecting Faux News:
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/...chors-advised-to-quarantine-after-coronavirus
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/...chors-advised-to-quarantine-after-coronavirus
Doesn't look like Cam got the same steroids, that's for sure.
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Trump was a complete man baby on 60 Minutes. That was all planned on his part.
Also Kayleigh McEnany giving Lesley Stahl the giant book allegedly containing Trump's health care plan. Empty, just like his brain.
Also Kayleigh McEnany giving Lesley Stahl the giant book allegedly containing Trump's health care plan. Empty, just like his brain.
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Pence is attending the Senate vote on Amy Coney Barrett, in spite of close contact with his infected aides. Pro life super spreader!
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
I prefer a President who tweets months in advance about being prepared for a pandemic vs one who keeps repeating that it's going away and we're turning the corner when reality says otherwise. Let alone his conduct during this entire debacle.
Bloomberg
Biden’s Year-Old Pandemic Tweet Gets an Anniversary Boost
By Yueqi Yang
October 25, 2020, 1:53 PM EDT
Biden tweeted in 2019, ‘We are not prepared’ for an outbreak
A tweet sent by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden warning about a pandemic was trending on Twitter on Sunday, the one-year anniversary of the post.
“We are not prepared for a pandemic,” Biden tweeted on Oct. 25, 2019, saying the country needs leadership that “mobilizes the world to stop outbreaks before they reach our shores.”
At the time Biden was sharing an article by the Washington Post that said none of the 195 countries, including the U.S., is fully prepared for a pandemic, based on a report by D.C.-based nonprofit Nuclear Threat Initiative and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
Bloomberg
Biden’s Year-Old Pandemic Tweet Gets an Anniversary Boost
By Yueqi Yang
October 25, 2020, 1:53 PM EDT
Biden tweeted in 2019, ‘We are not prepared’ for an outbreak
A tweet sent by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden warning about a pandemic was trending on Twitter on Sunday, the one-year anniversary of the post.
“We are not prepared for a pandemic,” Biden tweeted on Oct. 25, 2019, saying the country needs leadership that “mobilizes the world to stop outbreaks before they reach our shores.”
At the time Biden was sharing an article by the Washington Post that said none of the 195 countries, including the U.S., is fully prepared for a pandemic, based on a report by D.C.-based nonprofit Nuclear Threat Initiative and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
So Trafalgar has never released the crosstabs for their polling. It seems they accidentally released one yesterday, but promptly took it down. They were so bad, that The Economist, decided to drop them from their averages.
This morning, Biden has a national poll with him up 13 points. The average went up to 9.1. Then good ol' Rasmussen swoops in with a Trump +1. And the average went down to 8.7. sigh,
This morning, Biden has a national poll with him up 13 points. The average went up to 9.1. Then good ol' Rasmussen swoops in with a Trump +1. And the average went down to 8.7. sigh,
LemonMelon
More 5G Than Man
I know a couple interferers who think Trump is in fact a top 5 or 10 president.
Could also be the same guy with multiple accounts.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
phanan
Blue Crack Addict
Rasmussen is just as bad. Why do they continue to get referenced so much?
They should simply remove all outliers and stick with the good ones.
LemonMelon
More 5G Than Man
Gotta represent "both sides," right? Even if one side is complete and utter dogshit.
phanan
Blue Crack Addict
Right, just get rid of both extreme sides and stick with the legit ones.
OP
OP
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
He's no Josh "Don't Call Me Rosen" Allen, that's for sure.
LemonMelon
More 5G Than Man
[tweet]1320705251750588418[/tweet]
+10 in Michigan
+9 in Wisconsin
+8 in Pennsylvania
60 million have already voted. Don't waste a second longer to do the same if you haven't already. I checked on my ballot status yesterday and was relieved to see that it had been received.
+10 in Michigan
+9 in Wisconsin
+8 in Pennsylvania
60 million have already voted. Don't waste a second longer to do the same if you haven't already. I checked on my ballot status yesterday and was relieved to see that it had been received.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Haha can’t tell if you’re serious or not ... it’s not week 9 yet but Josh Rosen looks better than Cam Newton.
Week 9.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Rasmussen is bad yes. And made worse because they poll so frequently (as does Trafalgar) that it can shake up the averages. But it's not as easy as throwing out outlying polls. CNN has been mostly outliers all year, sometimes way low and other times way high. the analysts say that this can be a sign of a good pollster, because they are trying to herd their numbers in to match the average.
What I think you are correct on, is that consistent outlier pollsters always breaking heavily one way should be looked at and possibly dropped.
Rasmussen I think is on to this, and its why we saw a Rasmussen +12 a month ago. I think they know that they can release some swinging the other way once in a while to keep themselves in the mix.
Either way, it may be helpful in the end. It keeps already nervous Dems on their toes, and wouldn't it be sweet to see Biden outperform the polls this time?
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Ok, so I mentioned TX and FL earlier about good signs and maybe some not so good. I'm going to break them up into two posts.
FL first. Well, this is where there are some shaky numbers, and of course it's FL, so the probability of it disappointing us is always somewhat high.
Dems lead in early mail in voting by around 450k a few days ago, but that lead has now shrunk to about 360k. That's a little troubling, knowing that ED voting will be heavier for Reps.
Also, The only one of FL's 33 counties w/ 100k+ registrants where registered Reps have turned out at a higher percentage than registered Dems so far is - Miami-Dade. So that is also not a great thing to see.
That said - silver linings
FL is a long-time mail in voting state. Republicans usually hold the early vote lead heading into election day. So the fact that Dems are 360k ahead right now is promising, but keep in mind that in this pandemic year, Dems are using mail in at a far higher rate than Reps. And many Reps may be showing up at a higher rate on ED because Dear Leader has told them to.
Second bit of good news. in FL, Youth vote is up! (as it is in many other important battleground states) Up 17% for 18-39 year olds in total. Up 14% for 18-29 who are probably Biden leaning by about 40%.
Third - The indy vote. If we go with what we have seen polling wise for them. They are leaning about 8-15 Biden depending on the state. If Biden gets 10% of the indy vote, it would put Dems ahead right now by over 500k in the ballot race.
Fourth - We don't know how many registered Reps are voting for Biden. I think we can safely say more R's are voting D this time, than D voting R, but that amount is not really known.
Fifth - Dave Wasserman has called Sumter County in FL, the canary in the coal mine for FL. It is where most of the The Villages community resides. Last time Trump won it by 39 points, with over 68% support. Wasserman says that he would need at least 67 to point to a win in FL.
Right now:
the party breakdown of the 60,984 Sumter voters who have cast ballots:
GOP: 57%
Dem: 26%
NPA/other: 17%
And, the party breakdown of the 44,628 Sumter RVs who *haven't* yet cast ballots:
GOP: 56%
Dem: 20%
NPA/other: 24%
Dave's analysis - If the first batch of early votes reported is >75k and Trump is only taking ~61%, he'd have a hard time getting to 67% w/ election day votes, imo.
I think we have to take into consideration the Ind. Vote again here. If it’s a 10 point Biden advantage, that would currently put the numbers at:
GOP: 63.8%
Dem: 36.2%
And, the party breakdown of the 44,628 Sumter RVs who *haven't* yet cast ballots:
GOP: 65.6%
Dem: 34.4%
If this is where the vote falls in the end. Then it’s reassuring or Biden.
Also, having lived in FL for 12 years, I know that Pinellas co. where I lived, is a bit of a bellweather county for how FL will go. Pinellas went for Trump by the exact amount that Trump won FL in 2016. And Pinellas was 5 points Obama in 2012, when he won by just over 1 point. (also went for Obama in 08)
I think if you see Biden up in Pinellas by more than 3 points, hopefully more, and you see Trump falling short (66% or below) in a dark red county like Sumter. Biden can pull it off.
So all in all, there are signs pointing for a very close FL race, with, IMO, still the slight edge to Biden. But FL gonna FL. So I just pray they don’t disappoint us as they have so many other times.
FL first. Well, this is where there are some shaky numbers, and of course it's FL, so the probability of it disappointing us is always somewhat high.
Dems lead in early mail in voting by around 450k a few days ago, but that lead has now shrunk to about 360k. That's a little troubling, knowing that ED voting will be heavier for Reps.
Also, The only one of FL's 33 counties w/ 100k+ registrants where registered Reps have turned out at a higher percentage than registered Dems so far is - Miami-Dade. So that is also not a great thing to see.
That said - silver linings
FL is a long-time mail in voting state. Republicans usually hold the early vote lead heading into election day. So the fact that Dems are 360k ahead right now is promising, but keep in mind that in this pandemic year, Dems are using mail in at a far higher rate than Reps. And many Reps may be showing up at a higher rate on ED because Dear Leader has told them to.
Second bit of good news. in FL, Youth vote is up! (as it is in many other important battleground states) Up 17% for 18-39 year olds in total. Up 14% for 18-29 who are probably Biden leaning by about 40%.
Third - The indy vote. If we go with what we have seen polling wise for them. They are leaning about 8-15 Biden depending on the state. If Biden gets 10% of the indy vote, it would put Dems ahead right now by over 500k in the ballot race.
Fourth - We don't know how many registered Reps are voting for Biden. I think we can safely say more R's are voting D this time, than D voting R, but that amount is not really known.
Fifth - Dave Wasserman has called Sumter County in FL, the canary in the coal mine for FL. It is where most of the The Villages community resides. Last time Trump won it by 39 points, with over 68% support. Wasserman says that he would need at least 67 to point to a win in FL.
Right now:
the party breakdown of the 60,984 Sumter voters who have cast ballots:
GOP: 57%
Dem: 26%
NPA/other: 17%
And, the party breakdown of the 44,628 Sumter RVs who *haven't* yet cast ballots:
GOP: 56%
Dem: 20%
NPA/other: 24%
Dave's analysis - If the first batch of early votes reported is >75k and Trump is only taking ~61%, he'd have a hard time getting to 67% w/ election day votes, imo.
I think we have to take into consideration the Ind. Vote again here. If it’s a 10 point Biden advantage, that would currently put the numbers at:
GOP: 63.8%
Dem: 36.2%
And, the party breakdown of the 44,628 Sumter RVs who *haven't* yet cast ballots:
GOP: 65.6%
Dem: 34.4%
If this is where the vote falls in the end. Then it’s reassuring or Biden.
Also, having lived in FL for 12 years, I know that Pinellas co. where I lived, is a bit of a bellweather county for how FL will go. Pinellas went for Trump by the exact amount that Trump won FL in 2016. And Pinellas was 5 points Obama in 2012, when he won by just over 1 point. (also went for Obama in 08)
I think if you see Biden up in Pinellas by more than 3 points, hopefully more, and you see Trump falling short (66% or below) in a dark red county like Sumter. Biden can pull it off.
So all in all, there are signs pointing for a very close FL race, with, IMO, still the slight edge to Biden. But FL gonna FL. So I just pray they don’t disappoint us as they have so many other times.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Now TX. This one is just so interesting. First the fact that we all know – They are busting the doors down in early voting. The first state to hit over 80% of the 2016 vote, and I believe the first state that has had several counties that have surpassed the total 2016 vote.
Big picture, I think this is really good news for Dems. The regular rule is that high turnout helps Dems. Saw that sort of backwards in some Iowa polling for Greenfield, but I still think the higher the turnout the better. This is not by accident. Beto and many other ground operations have been working on registration and turnout for 4 years. And it is paying off. I believe the county where Austin is, has 97% of the population as registered voters. That’s pretty astounding.
So what other positive signs are there?
For this, we gotta look at county level results
Let’s look at the highest turnout counties first and compare 2016 to 2018 midterm results
Hays – Trump won by 1 point here in 2018. In 2018 Beto beat Cruz here by 15 points (16 point swing)
Denton – Trump won by 20 points in 2016. In 2018 Cruz beat Beto by 8 points. (12 points swing)
Williamson - Trump won by 10 points in 2016. In 2018 Beto beat Cruz here by almost 3. (13 point swing)
Now a few others
Collin Co. north of Dallas - Trump won by 16.5 in 2016. In 2018 Cruz won by 6 points (10.5 point swing)
Tarrant, west of Dallas - Trump won by 9 points in 2016, Beto won in 2018 by just under 1. (9.7 swing)
So we are seeing “red” counties swinging at an average of about 13 points. Trump won TX by 9, so this is a good margin to see, if Biden can match Beto’s numbers. One could argue that he probably can’t, since Beto is a TX native fighting a Senate race. But he was also going against a TX native, and one of the biggest names in the Senate. One could also argue that Biden could outperform these numbers, because a lot of registration and work has been done since 2018 to turn out even more Dems.
In large Blue metro areas, Beto also outperformed Clinton.
Harris (Houston) – Clinton won by 12.5 points. Beto won by 16.7 (4 point boost)
Dallas – Clinton won by 26.3. Beto won by 33 points (about a 6.5 point boost)
So make note of these counties, and take a look at the returns coming in on election night, which should come in early from TX. If Biden is matching or beating Beto’s numbers in the red counties (Hays, Denton, Williamson, etc..) and also getting a slightly higher boost than Beto got in Dallas, Houston, and to a lesser extent Austin. Then Biden has a good shot at taking the state.
One bit of troubling news is that the Dem rich vote of south TX is lagging behind the rest of the state in ballots cast. This is where the Biden campaign in focusing on with advertising right now, and I hope it picks up!
A couple other things. Very hard to do mail in voting in TX. You need an excuse there. So only 880K mail ins have been received out of the 702 million votes cast. This will make it good on election night to avoid an initial red or blue "mirage"
Also, the younger vote. Up 24% for 18-39 year olds.
Big picture, I think this is really good news for Dems. The regular rule is that high turnout helps Dems. Saw that sort of backwards in some Iowa polling for Greenfield, but I still think the higher the turnout the better. This is not by accident. Beto and many other ground operations have been working on registration and turnout for 4 years. And it is paying off. I believe the county where Austin is, has 97% of the population as registered voters. That’s pretty astounding.
So what other positive signs are there?
For this, we gotta look at county level results
Let’s look at the highest turnout counties first and compare 2016 to 2018 midterm results
Hays – Trump won by 1 point here in 2018. In 2018 Beto beat Cruz here by 15 points (16 point swing)
Denton – Trump won by 20 points in 2016. In 2018 Cruz beat Beto by 8 points. (12 points swing)
Williamson - Trump won by 10 points in 2016. In 2018 Beto beat Cruz here by almost 3. (13 point swing)
Now a few others
Collin Co. north of Dallas - Trump won by 16.5 in 2016. In 2018 Cruz won by 6 points (10.5 point swing)
Tarrant, west of Dallas - Trump won by 9 points in 2016, Beto won in 2018 by just under 1. (9.7 swing)
So we are seeing “red” counties swinging at an average of about 13 points. Trump won TX by 9, so this is a good margin to see, if Biden can match Beto’s numbers. One could argue that he probably can’t, since Beto is a TX native fighting a Senate race. But he was also going against a TX native, and one of the biggest names in the Senate. One could also argue that Biden could outperform these numbers, because a lot of registration and work has been done since 2018 to turn out even more Dems.
In large Blue metro areas, Beto also outperformed Clinton.
Harris (Houston) – Clinton won by 12.5 points. Beto won by 16.7 (4 point boost)
Dallas – Clinton won by 26.3. Beto won by 33 points (about a 6.5 point boost)
So make note of these counties, and take a look at the returns coming in on election night, which should come in early from TX. If Biden is matching or beating Beto’s numbers in the red counties (Hays, Denton, Williamson, etc..) and also getting a slightly higher boost than Beto got in Dallas, Houston, and to a lesser extent Austin. Then Biden has a good shot at taking the state.
One bit of troubling news is that the Dem rich vote of south TX is lagging behind the rest of the state in ballots cast. This is where the Biden campaign in focusing on with advertising right now, and I hope it picks up!
A couple other things. Very hard to do mail in voting in TX. You need an excuse there. So only 880K mail ins have been received out of the 702 million votes cast. This will make it good on election night to avoid an initial red or blue "mirage"
Also, the younger vote. Up 24% for 18-39 year olds.
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OP
OP
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
We could be heading for a 2nd Amy Corona Barrett super spreader event this afternoon...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/26/politics/loeffler-covid-amy-coney-barrett-vote/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/26/politics/loeffler-covid-amy-coney-barrett-vote/index.html
phanan
Blue Crack Addict
Trump +4 in Texas per the NYT today.
OP
OP
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
Oil matters.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
1) it’s Texas, oil isn’t why it’s going red
2) Florida is going red, I parlay my bet of Cam Newton’s performance by week 9 with this
2) Florida is going red, I parlay my bet of Cam Newton’s performance by week 9 with this
Florida will not go for Biden. The GOP will do everything they can to keep it red.
It’s going to come down to PA
Which is why Amy is being confirmed so quickly so the SC can hear the vote by mail case again that they literally just punted on back to the state courts decision
It’s going to come down to PA
Which is why Amy is being confirmed so quickly so the SC can hear the vote by mail case again that they literally just punted on back to the state courts decision
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
It’s less even about what the parties can do.
Floridians are selfish bandwagoners and want to believe the pandemic isn’t real and that masks are dumb and that they can go back to their daily lives. In south Florida. Predominantly blue area. As in, for a blue victory in Florida Florida will be relying more and more on the liberalization of Orlando, because Palm Beach is going red and there’s a whole lotta Cubans in Miami that are chewing up the “Biden is a socialist” thing.
Floridians are selfish bandwagoners and want to believe the pandemic isn’t real and that masks are dumb and that they can go back to their daily lives. In south Florida. Predominantly blue area. As in, for a blue victory in Florida Florida will be relying more and more on the liberalization of Orlando, because Palm Beach is going red and there’s a whole lotta Cubans in Miami that are chewing up the “Biden is a socialist” thing.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Palm Beach went to Clinton by almost 16 points. Agreed on the Cuban thing.
I appreciate all the thoughtful work/analysis done by womanfish, but I really believe it's in everyone's best interest to write off Florida. That state is a shit show in the best of circumstances and while it would be a pleasant surprise for it to go blue in a week, I really doubt it. Also, The Villages is ten kinds of creepy groupthink, I cannot imagine for the life of me wanting to live out my last years on earth in that godforsaken community.
Texas - if this was the year that Barack Obama was running, I think that he'd take Texas. It's a large enough state that you can get over the line by relying on momentum if you're keeping close enough a week or two out. However, I don't think that Biden can close it out and it's a more likely flip in 4-8 years. That flip IS coming.
Texas - if this was the year that Barack Obama was running, I think that he'd take Texas. It's a large enough state that you can get over the line by relying on momentum if you're keeping close enough a week or two out. However, I don't think that Biden can close it out and it's a more likely flip in 4-8 years. That flip IS coming.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
PA will go for Biden. I think if Biden gets more a "statement" win, then it comes down to NC and AZ. It will also mean that on election night, it won't matter if PA is counting ballots for another week if either or both of these go blue.
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