7pm
Florida It counts fast. The early and mail votes will arrive first and will probably lean Democratic; don’t be surprised to see Joe Biden take a lead. Then the Election Day votes should flood in. We’ll see whether President Trump can keep it close before the more Republican Panhandle counties (which are in the Central time zone) come in at 8 p.m. Nearly all of the votes will be counted by that time, and it’ll be a slow trickle to the finish. Unless it’s a really close race, it should be called on election night.
North Carolina A quick count. As with Florida, expect the early and nearly all mail ballots first and fast. Mr. Biden will likely take an early lead, followed by the Election Day vote and a Trump comeback. We’ll see whether it’s enough, but we could easily have enough votes for a call by midnight, even in a close race. One catch: The state accepts absentee ballots well after the election, which will help Mr. Biden.
8pm
Texas The early votes from metropolitan areas will arrive quickly, which will appear to give Mr. Biden a big lead. Then we’ll have to see whether Mr. Trump can catch up with rural and Election Day votes. Texas can take a while to count its votes, but it ought to be mostly finished on election night. That’s more than we can say for a lot of states.
9pm
Wisconsin: This one might be less frustrating. Most counties say they’ll be able to count everything on election night, and most counties will report their absentee and Election Day votes together. If that’s right, we should actually get a decent picture here pretty quickly. A big caveat: Not every town or county reports its absentee and Election Day votes together. You’ll have to be careful to make sure you’re not looking at a county that’s still missing a huge chunk of Democratic absentees, including Milwaukee and Green Bay’s Brown County.
10pm
Iowa: Iowa is usually fairly straightforward. Officials count most votes quickly, and they usually count the early votes first — so Mr. Biden might get out to an early lead. Either way, we shouldn’t have to wait too long before receiving a clear picture. A close race would be a bad sign for Mr. Trump.
