US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

[LemonMelon]

Will be interesting if this map happens, and Biden is ahead in PA. Trump will be begging to count every last vote in PA for as long as it took.

As I am currently very confident in PA, I would actually welcome that scenario (though it's unlikely Biden would be ahead). End the Trump era in the state that propelled him in 2016.

But yeah, let's not. AZ, NC, FL and GA need to flip.

 

[gump]

But it’s unlikely Biden would be ahead since the early votes that favor him won’t get counted until Wednesday.

 

[womanfish]

But it’s unlikely Biden would be ahead since the early votes that favor him won’t get counted until Wednesday.

Yeah, i know, I had to get a little creative. lol

 

[womanfish]

Arizona seems so straight-forward. There are like 12 huge counties. And it's pretty much Maricopa, Pima next at about quarter of the size and then everything else.

Trump got Maricopa by just under 3 points. Pima went Clinton by over 13 points.

If Biden just gets Maricopa by 1 point and Pima by 15, it's over. And that seems way more likely than not.

 

[mikal]

Random poll of Interference:

What network will you all be watching tomorrow night? I feel like MSNBC would be like listening to your team’s radio announcers. Lol.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I roll with Rachel

 

[anitram]

My husband suggested we watch Fox News if/when it at all becomes clear that it will be called for Biden tomorrow night just so we can see their constipated faces.

 

[BEAL]

CNN poll has AZ back to a toss up

Trump gets one of his tweets marked for false info as he bashes the Supreme Court decision on PA and claims violence will fall upon the nation if it’s not corrected

And this little threat to the Gov of PA


https://twitter.com/byjohnlmicek/status/1323353495265779715?s=21

 

[gump]

MSNBC and the internet for sure.

Here’s something to pass the time:



I got: Illegal aliens will erase stay at home moms.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Black lives matter will terrorize my religion

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Random poll of Interference:

What network will you all be watching tomorrow night? I feel like MSNBC would be like listening to your team’s radio announcers. Lol.

CNN because I am a glutton for punishment and also I need Jake Tapper and Anderson Cooper’s general look of dismay and confusion about the sheer stupidity of some of the things repubes do.

Though I could certainly mute both Cuomo and Lemon.

 

[gump]

Black lives matter will terrorize my religion

There must be a Trump tweet exactly like this.

 

[gump]

If I still had BBC America that’s what I would watch.

 

[anitram]

The Arizona polls today are all making me nauseous.

But I think that Mark Kelly has it in the bag and will drag Biden over the line in the end.

 

[gump]

Biden in Pittsburgh and Harris in Philly is a smart way to end the campaign, particularly given the smaller share of early voting in PA.

 

[DaveC]

homosexuals will vaccinate the suburbs.

that actually sounds pretty great tbh

 

[anitram]

Biden in Pittsburgh and Harris in Philly is a smart way to end the campaign, particularly given the smaller share of early voting in PA.

Trump campaign predicting a landslide victory in PA by >1M+ voters.

Can it be next week already please?

 

[LemonMelon]

I think the 2016 handicap pollsters have been applying will be especially evident in AZ. Whites without college degrees are assumed to be backing Trump, but in that state I think you'll see the McCain influence reveal itself in that demographic, especially among suburbanites.

 

[LemonMelon]

Trump campaign predicting a landslide victory in PA by >1M+ voters.

Can it be next week already please?

Oh, so it's definitely not going to happen then. That's good to know.

 

[Irvine511]

Random poll of Interference:

What network will you all be watching tomorrow night? I feel like MSNBC would be like listening to your team’s radio announcers. Lol.

MSNBC has gotten as flagrantly partisan as Fox, but the discourse is on a dramatically higher level (seriously, Fox is dead boring and written at like an 8th grade level). So I’ll do that.

 

[phanan]

Random poll of Interference:

What network will you all be watching tomorrow night? I feel like MSNBC would be like listening to your team’s radio announcers. Lol.

CNN, because I think John King does a decent job and I like their map graphics. It’s enough to make me put up with Wolf Blitzer.

 

[LemonMelon]

If Florida goes blue, I'm watching Fox News for sure.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1323462744041906176?s=09

 

[gump]

If Florida goes blue, I'm watching Fox News for sure.

https://youtu.be/eQLV7nqD3CA

 

[womanfish]

The Arizona polls today are all making me nauseous.

But I think that Mark Kelly has it in the bag and will drag Biden over the line in the end.

Don't worry about AZ.
Maricopa Co. alone has 1.7 million early votes. That's 70% of the entire STATE total in 2016. Pima Co. is at about 110% of their 2016 total.
A voter tsunami like this isn't because Republicans are so fired up. Trump's base is fired up, but he has a ceiling and it has been hit. These numbers come from the energy of change and first time and sporadic voters coming out because they are fed up.

 

[womanfish]

I roll with Rachel

absolutely. I will only switch over to Fox every time a state is called for Biden.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

https://youtu.be/eQLV7nqD3CA

Could you imagine Fox News ever looking like this now? Outwardly seeding doubt that Trump would *lose* a state?!?

 

[womanfish]

I'm only poll nerd with not much data crunching experience.

But I took a look at Sumter Co. FL early voting totals. Wasserman says that Trump needs to get 66-67 in Sumter to be on track to win the state. Because it is so deep red, it would foreshadow shifts around the state in the more rural deep red areas. He won it by 69% in 2016.

I know it's the early vote, BUT they are almost maxed out on the total number of registered voters already, so it's close to what the end number will be.

Right now, if I take the latest crosstab data from Nate Silver on FL, which seem pretty conservative, it shows Reps with a party ID 89-9 and Dems are at 91-7, giving Dems a +2 crossover vote. They also have Ind. at 5-6 points to Biden.

So i plugged those numbers into the current vote totals and Trump is at 63.5 and Biden at 36.5. That is a really significant shift and puts Trump far short of what he needs in the reddest parts of the state.

A good sign I hope....

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Pete seems to genuinely enjoy toying with Fox News hosts

https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1323432663219380225?s=19

https://twitter.com/kennyedit/status/1323433720662138885?s=19

 

[womanfish]

So right now, Biden has a better chance at winning MT, than Trump has at winning PA.

We got this people.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323468474249826304

Charlie Cook, who is pretty cautious not one for wild predictions, says that a landslide is a probable outcome.