US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

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Opa-Locka, Florida(CNN)President Donald Trump suggested to a Florida crowd he may fire Dr. Anthony Fauci after the election, escalating his feud with the nation's leading expert on infectious diseases and providing a window into a potential post-November 3 administration purge.

Speaking after midnight following a full day of campaigning, the President was complaining about news media coverage of Covid-19 when the crowd broke out into a "Fire Fauci" chant.

"Don't tell anybody, but let me wait until a little bit after the election," Trump said to cheers. "I appreciate the advice."
 
Here's where I am today:

Reasons to be optimistic:
- Biden is polling much better than Hillary ever did, especially at the end;
- Very few undecided voters left;
- No significant third party candidates that will shave valuable votes off his tally;
- While Biden lacks a great plan B if his plan A (PA) becomes a problem, he has leads in "plan B" states that are not as correlated to each other (AZ, NC, to a lesser extent GA and FL). This is a bit more robust than relying on PA/MI/WI like Hilary did, as they were more prone to common polling errors.
- Pollsters have by and large addressed the 2016 issues regarding educational weighting of white voters, and the 2018 polls were quite accurate in that regard.

Reasons to be pessimistic:
- PA lead is not large enough, and could still be prone to a mid-sized polling error;
- If PA goes for Trump, it's closer to a 50-50 race given the smaller leads in other swing states.
- Unprecedented amount of early voting brings extra uncertainty (we are not sure if polling models handled this particularly well), though this could benefit Biden as well as Trump. But Biden would prefer less uncertainty given his leads.
- Massive disenfranchisement in key states. We saw what happened to GA in 2018. PA remains a huge question mark. And given Republican control of the federal judiciary, there is likely to be a thumb on the scale for Trump (though I can't help wondering if the Republican establishment wouldn't be happy to see him go now that they got their courts - but given the Senatorial races in place it's unlikely).

So all in all, better off than we were 4 years ago, but I would be much more comfortable if the lead in PA was closer to MI or WI.

To keep things in perspective, a Biden landslide in which he wins 400+ electoral votes is probably a bit more likely than a Trump EC win.
 
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Washington(CNN)Federal authorities are expected to put back into place a "non-scalable" fence around the entire perimeter of the White House on Monday as law enforcement and other agencies prepare for possible protests surrounding the election, a source with knowledge of the matter confirmed to CNN.

The fence, the same type that was put up during protests this summer, will encompass the Ellipse and Lafayette Square. It will go down 15th Street to Constitution Avenue and then over to 17th Street. The fence will then run up to H Street and across by Lafayette, and then come down 15th Street, the source said.

NBC News was first to report the new fencing. The Secret Service did not respond to a request for comment.
 
finally, scientific proof that Trump supporters are a bunch of Dicks

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This is almost how every Cook Political Report House Ratings Change has looked throughout the last 5 months. 90% are shifts blue each time. People are focused so much on the Pres and Senate races that I think a big story coming out this week could possibly be a Republican bloodbath in the house and local/state legislative races.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323260024882368513
 
I think it's important to note, that vote share vs. 2016 - In final poll averages - Biden has 7% higher vote share than Clinton, and Trump has 1.5% higher than last time.

No incumbent has ever been as low as Trump. That is not a good thing.
 
I'll throw out my predictions on battlegrounds:

PA - Biden +3
MI - Biden +5
WI - Biden +5
FL - Biden +1
NC - Biden +2
AZ - Biden +3
GA - Trump +1
IA - Trump +1
OH - Trump +2
TX - Trump +2

It's going to be close in a lot of states, closer than the polls are saying, but the final EC won't look that close.

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It's time.

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Texas and Georgia will be very near misses. Florida, NC and Maine-2 will be very close wins. Everything else will be 3+ for Biden or 2+ for Trump.
 
Thinking more about what tomorrow night will look like. I’m still really wary on NC, GA, or FL going for Biden. But if any of them do, along with AZ, that will really foil Trump’s plan to say “see, I’m winning!” And it will heavily change his narrative. If all of those states go to Trump and we’re waiting on PA, WI, and MI it’s going to be a long couple days or weeks.
 
Here we go. I still don't believe in Florida but whatever, let's be optimistic.

Not sure why it's not showing up, by my map is the same as the two above + Georgia.

DQKg2
 
Damn right Bernie. Make America great again, for real.


@BernieSanders
What America leads in:

#1: Covid-19 cases
#1: Medical debt
#1: Prescription drug prices
#1: Deaths from lack of insurance
#1: Student debt
#1: Prisoners
#1: Gun violence
#1: Military spending
#1: Trade deficit
#1: Billionaires

We need to change our national priorities.
1:59 PM · Nov 1, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
 
against my better judgment, my map:




Kn0BJ.png




i've allowed for some optimism based on my overall reading of the tea leaves (NC, GA), and some realism (no OH or IA) and deciding to look at the abyss head on (TX, FL).
 
Not surprised, but disappointed that neither Dubya or Jeb! have come out and endorsed Biden.

Think what that could do for both Texas and Florida.

Could be they don't care. Could be they don't want the backlash.

Feels to me this is way too important to just stay on the sidelines.
 
Don't they have a prospective third George Bush, P Bush waiting on the sidelines? Probably playing the long game (+ being profiles in courage).
 
This is quite interesting in terms of the adjustments in PA polling this cycle:

[TWEET]1323309442998390787[/TWEET]
 
Don't they have a prospective third George Bush, P Bush waiting on the sidelines? Probably playing the long game (+ being profiles in courage).


They’re probably afraid they’ll be shot by some crazy maga lunatic.
 
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