US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

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Get out the vote rally somewhere in NC, led by a Reverend, said to be peaceful. Police said they had to disperse, then proceeded to pepper spray them.

Kids and people in motorized wheelchairs were hit with pepper spray.

I really want to see an end to all this insanity.
 
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On Monday, November 2, Joe Biden will travel to Cleveland, Ohio to discuss bringing Americans together to address the crises facing the country and winning the battle for the soul of the nation. Additional details to follow.

I think that the Biden team has played this very smart. 80% of the time in the blue wall states, In PA again all day today. Then they made important stops in GA, FL, NC and TX last week, have Obama in PA, FL, GA and NC, and Harris in GA.
The stop in IA this past week and closing out in OH say a lot about how they are feeling about the race, and maybe what their internal data is telling them.
 
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couple of cool posts from G. Elliott Morris this morning

Per my average of polls going back to 1948, Trump has set a new record as the first incumbent president to poll below 47% of the national two-party vote every day since June 1st of the election cycle.

Responding to the news that Ralston has called NV for Biden, and how that would effect the probability model for AZ:

If we run our model with the condition that NV always has to be blue, then Biden's chance of winning AZ goes from 75 to 82 and his chance of winning the electoral college is pushed outside the uncertainty interval to 98%

The final point should give even the most nervous and skeptical some piece of mind. If Biden loses PA and ALL other battlegrounds, and just wins AZ, he would still hit 270. (note, I am not including MN, MI, and WI in battlegrounds at this point)
 
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womanfish said:
I think it's important to look back at past elections to kind of give us some perspective.



2012 is particularly interesting.

Obama on up .5 nationally, but wins WI by 7, MI by 9 and PA by 3. Those state numbers look pretty damn familiar...

So polls were off by more in 2012 than in 2016, just the other way.



Sorry, numbers are about the only thing that keeps me calm in these anxious days. :crack:
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The point is that nobody is “up” by their average. That’s the part that makes the values worthless.

The averages only tell you the direction in which polls were headed. They’re sort of worthless without a set of values across a time axis.
 
And what else does this do

It’ll pit half the country against each other. MAGA country saying RIGGED, HE WON!!!

And the rest of us having to argue against such delusion.

A few of my friends have said they can’t wait until Wednesday when this madness can be over (assuming Biden win) and there’s no way.
 
My hot take: against normal convention, Florida will be called early due to the state being well equipped for this situation with a large amount of mail in votes with the ability to count ahead.

That’ll be used for Trump’s justification for saying he’s ahead, because the Midwest will be the slowest to come in.
 
LemonMelon said:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/texas-results

Only 36% of Texas early votes have come from Democrats? Can't think that's a great sign.
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some context on this from electoral-vote.com's mailbag today:

A.A. in Austin, TX, writes: I read with interest the question from J.K. in New York and your response about the NBC News tool regarding Texas voters. The questioner said the site "shows voter makeup so far as 53% Republican, 36% Democratic and 11% Other/Unknown. That would be a Republican wipeout and contrary to all the polling."

May I offer some on-the-ground perspective? Texas does not have a party registration system. Party affiliation is based on primary participation. If a voter voted in the Democratic primary, that voter would be considered a Democrat in the voting lists, etc. (and likewise for those voting in the Republican primary). Since Texas has been so red for so long, and because "all politics is local" (or used to be), many faithful Democrats vote in the Republican primary in order to have a voice about local elected officials (county judge, county clerk, sheriff, etc.), especially in places where there won't be a viable Democratic opponent. So that 53% is full of Democrats who will vote blue in the General election. While I have never done this and have often counseled/begged people not to do so, I personally know many devout Democrats who do. So relying on party affiliation based on primary voting is a shaky basis for drawing general election conclusions.
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hopefully that eases some of the TX concerns.
 
Axios



2 hours ago - Politics & Policy
Scoop: Trump's plan to declare premature victory
Jonathan Swan


President Trump has told confidants he'll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he's "ahead," according to three sources familiar with his private comments.

That's even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania.

Behind the scenes: Trump has privately talked through this scenario in some detail in the last few weeks, describing plans to walk up to a podium on election night and declare he has won.

For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.

Why it matters: Trump's team is preparing to falsely claim that mail-in ballots counted after Nov. 3 — a legitimate count expected to favor Democrats — are evidence of election fraud.

Details: Many prognosticators say that on election night, Trump will likely appear ahead in Pennsylvania — though the state's final outcome could change substantially as mail-in ballots are counted over the following days.

Trump's team is preparing to claim baselessly that if that process changes the outcome in Pennsylvania from the picture on election night, then Democrats would have "stolen" the election.


Trump's advisers have been laying the groundwork for this strategy for weeks, but this is the first account of Trump explicitly discussing his election night intentions.
What they're saying: Asked for comment, the Trump campaign's communications director Tim Murtaugh said, "This is nothing but people trying to create doubt about a Trump victory. When he wins, he's going to say so."
 
Don't know if anyone will know the answer to this, but I'll ask anyway.

We all know that some states can start counting before election day while others have to wait until election day, but I was looking at lists of which states are which, and it appears that the states that have to wait until election day are split up into two further categories - those that have to wait until the polls close, and those that do not. The list of states that have to wait until the polls close does not contain any swing states or states where the outcome is in question.

The list of states that do NOT have to wait for the polls to close includes Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Georgia.

Does this mean those states could theoretically start counting the mail-in votes at 12AM on election day to get a head start and cut down on the waiting?

Ohio and Georgia are run by Republicans so I wouldn't count on them doing that, but is it possible the blue wall states(who all have Democratic governors) could do that? Could it make a difference?
 
anitram said:
Anybody planning their dinner/snacks for Tuesday? I am trying to think of something delicious in case of victory but that isn’t too gross to vomit at midnight if need be.
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No official plans yet, but I'll probably be eating light, whatever it is, that day, 'cause I'll be too nervous for a big meal.

We've also got some wine coolers here as well. It's not hard liquor, no, but it's something.

anitram said:
Way too early in the morning to bring out that photo.
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I would be perfectly happy to never see that photo ever again.
 
anitram said:
Do you know how the wars in the Balkans started in 1991?

Serbs in Croatia began blocking roads just like this.
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It’s terrifying. One can easily imagine the Blue Lives Matter flag replacing the actual American flag with these folks should we get 4 more years of Trump.

This is what US fascism looks like.
 
DaveC said:
some context on this from electoral-vote.com's mailbag today:



hopefully that eases some of the TX concerns.
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Thanks. I had heard about the "no voter registration" quirk but didn't know what that meant for the numbers I was seeing.
 
DaveC said:
some context on this from electoral-vote.com's mailbag today:



hopefully that eases some of the TX concerns.
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Thank you DaveC! Also add this

https://mobile.twitter.com/evanasmith/status/1322974375780458501

4.6M of the 9.7M Texans who voted early have *no previous primary history* — so there’s no way of predicting who they voted for

That NBC would be reporting these nonsense numbers is really pathetic
 
Pretty impressive and a large sample size

CES likely voter estimates for 5 key swing states:

FL (N=3,755): Biden 49 - Trump 47
GA (N=1,456): Biden 48 - Trump 47
NC (N=1,627): Biden 49 - Trump 45
PA (N=2,703): Biden 52 - Trump 44
TX (N=2,947): Trump 49 - Biden 47
 
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