US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

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dazzledbylight said:
Sure some of you know this, I didn't, Georgia is counting their mail in ballots now. Their polls close at 7PM so should have a result before 8 pm.
: fingerscrossed:
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I did not know that! That is fantastic news. So this means we have some very important states that we will have numbers from early on election night.

OH, NC, GA, FL, TX and AZ.

If OH goes to Biden, then that's it, all over.
If GA goes to Biden, then that's it, all over,
If FL goes to Biden, then that's it, all over.
If TX goes to Biden, then that's it, all over.

If NC goes to Biden, then it's pretty much over.
 
Weather looks to be pretty good in the Midwest next week making in person voting a little more bearable.

GOP gets a win in MN tho, saying mail in ballots must arrive on election night to be counted
 
I can’t get over how Donald Trump airs campaign ads in freaking DC. I’m sitting here and the only ads I see are for Trump.

Is his campaign unaware that the city is a waste of money for ads? Does he really need to see his own face on commercial when Hannity and Tucker aren’t there?
 
BEAL, I love you buddy, you're a quality poster, but I might have to block you for a week because your posts are making my reflux act up. [emoji51]
 
We are in this awful period where there are only 4 days left in the campaign and realistically nothing will change but we nevertheless have to live through it.

And the really awful thing is even if Biden wins, take a look at the COVID projections between now and the spring and we (North America and Europe at least) are deeply fucked with deaths skyrocketing, inevitable lockdowns whether at the national level like we are seeing in France and Germany or a more targeted approach. A brutal Christmas where the idiots will still celebrate with reckless disregard and the rest of us will behave responsibly while our children miss their grandparents, our elderly parents are mostly left to their own devices, our workplaces continue to gather dust.
 
anitram said:
You guys, UPS apparently found Tucker Carlson's documents.

This will sure sink Biden.
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I went down a wormhole late last night reading up on that whole saga and it brought me some much needed and welcome laughter.

MrsSpringsteen said:
I loathe Tucker Carlson. Take him, Trump, Miller, Don Jr, Jared, Hannity and throw them on a covid infected cruise ship to nowhere. Throw in Q and Alex Jones too. And Lindsay Graham and Mitch too.
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Seconding every single word of this post.

You'd think that Jon Stewart smacking Carlson down on national television would've been enough for him to just crawl back under his rock and stay there. But no, he's just that self-important. It's cute that he still seems to think he's worth taking even remotely seriously.

Oh, and speaking of Tucker, apparently tonight he said this:

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1321973721461071872

Translation: Oh, shit, this is falling apart, quick, um...abort, abort!

Hewson said:
Lindsay would be in his glory poolside on Speedo Sunday.
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...all right, well, there's an image I'll be scrubbing out with brain bleach, thanks.

womanfish said:
I did not know that! That is fantastic news. So this means we have some very important states that we will have numbers from early on election night.

OH, NC, GA, FL, TX and AZ.

If OH goes to Biden, then that's it, all over.
If GA goes to Biden, then that's it, all over,
If FL goes to Biden, then that's it, all over.
If TX goes to Biden, then that's it, all over.

If NC goes to Biden, then it's pretty much over.
Click to expand...

:pray:

Great news about Georgia starting to count ballots already :up:. I'll take any positive stories I can take right now!
 
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322029481524121600

Harris Co., TX just became the latest county to surpass its 2016 total votes cast, w/ all-night voting, Friday and Election Day left to go.

Harris margins for...

Obama '12: 971 votes
Clinton '16: 161,959 votes
O'Rourke '18: 201,298 votes
Biden '20: ??


Wasserman thinks that Biden could hit 300 to 350k margin in Harris
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
If NC goes to Biden it’s over? I’d argue if NC goes to Trump then the game gets a heck of a lot harder for Biden.
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It would be over because it's hard to believe he would win NC and lose PA, MI or WI in the current environment. In terms of EC votes, Biden doesn't need it, but it provides cushion.

If Biden loses AZ and NC, things will get tough.

If pretty much any state south of Virigina flips, the writing is on the wall.
 
LemonMelon said:
It would be over because it's hard to believe he would win NC and lose PA, MI or WI in the current environment. In terms of EC votes, Biden doesn't need it, but it provides cushion.

If Biden loses AZ and NC, things will get tough.

If pretty much any state south of Virigina flips, the writing is on the wall.
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Why are all of these circumstances “hard to believe”? This is literally the same thing you said to me about my map and I genuinely don’t know where you’re coming from with it. People in North Carolina are hardly like people in PA. And your point makes absolutely no sense - Hilary Clinton won NC and lost PA, MI, and WI in 2016.

If any state south of NC flips, the writing is indeed on the wall. NC is very much so the purple state of north-meets-south though, and I really would only tie it to VA and GA in terms of voter behaviors. PA is some hodgepodge of Midwest and New Jersey folk (and yes I understand also some Appalachianness Pittsburgh blah blah blah).

NC voters are going blue for the same reason VA voters are. Blossoming urban imports and race political polarization. PA might have the latter part but it sure doesn’t have the former.
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
Why are all of these circumstances “hard to believe”? This is literally the same thing you said to me about my map and I genuinely don’t know where you’re coming from with it. People in North Carolina are hardly like people in PA. And your point makes absolutely no sense - Hilary Clinton won NC and lost PA, MI, and WI in 2016.

If any state south of NC flips, the writing is indeed on the wall. NC is very much so the purple state of north-meets-south though, and I really would only tie it to VA and GA in terms of voter behaviors. PA is some hodgepodge of Midwest and New Jersey folk (and yes I understand also some Appalachianness Pittsburgh blah blah blah).

NC voters are going blue for the same reason VA voters are. Blossoming urban imports and race political polarization. PA might have the latter part but it sure doesn’t have the former.
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What? Hillary Clinton did not win North Carolina. She lost it by a 3.66% margin, whereas she lost PA/MI/WI by fractions of that. Are you thinking of Virigina?

Outside of 2008, which had razor thin margins, NC has been a tough nut to crack for a very long time. I suspect that will change, but it's a slightly bigger leap than assuming Biden will be able to make 1.0-1.5% gains over 2016 in traditionally blue states.
 
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LemonMelon said:
What? Hillary Clinton did not win North Carolina. She lost it by a 3.66% margin, whereas she lost PA/MI/WI by fractions of that. Are you thinking of Virigina?

Outside of 2008, which had razor thin margins, NC has been a tough nut to crack for a very long time. I suspect that will change, but it's a slightly bigger leap than assuming Biden will be able to make 1.0-1.5% gains over 2016 in traditionally blue states.
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No sorry, I was thinking of NC’s gubernatorial victory.

The point still stands though... the dynamics of NC is far more similar to VA (just further behind). Lots and lots of people across the south move to NC for their plethora of universities, and even more get imported to cities like Raleigh and Charlotte for new jobs etc., and this is exactly what we see with NOVA. That’s not what’s going on anywhere in PA.
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
If NC goes to Biden it’s over? I’d argue if NC goes to Trump then the game gets a heck of a lot harder for Biden.
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That’s why I separated NC out from the rest of the pack. If Biden wins The others it would be over. If he wins NC, it’s pretty much over -unless something crazy happened like he loses NV.
Cause Biden could lose PA at that point and not pick up any other states and still win with 275 EV’s.
And let’s hope the PA, NC, NV scenario doesn’t happen cause that would be 269-269 and our world ends.
 
https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1322124860408082432?s=21

I don’t believe all cops are shitheads but the organization or fraternity of cops seems to be full of it.

Maybe Biden can calm some of these flames
Or even a dem Congress can pass some reforms or better oversight but not sure when police unions are basically the mob when it comes to how they handle their own or any criticism
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
I just keep looking at Georgia. Georgia is bluening before our very eyes.
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While there is attention on the big early voting numbers. I think people still aren't quite grasping what is going on in the "new south".

There is nothing short of a movement going on in NC, GA, and TX.

The midwest states are all at about 40-50% of their 2016 numbers. Good, but nothing crazy.
OH and IA - 50-60%.

But
NC - 88%
GA - 89%
TX - 101%!!!

There is something happening that is bigger than I think we realize. People don't vote in these numbers because they think everything is ok, and they just like to go stand in line for a while.

Also, interesting to note that three states have some of the worst voter suppression tactics in the country. They are revolting. They are coming for these people.

Wasserman is saying that with the early vote reaching this level today, that he thinks TX is on track to have 3 million more votes this year than 2016.
That would mean 12 million. If you saw my post a few days ago, the Dems goal - the number they felt TX would turn blue was... 12 million.
 
There simply isn't a realistic scenario in which Biden wins NC and loses the election. Those are so rare that I don't think it's worth considering them. Winning NC would mean Biden will also do well in Georgia and also give confidence that white votes are turning out for him in PA. See the state-to-state correlations:

https://roadtolarissa.com/forecast-correlation/


NC gets Biden to 270 without either PA or AZ.

Screen Shot 2020-10-30 at 10.35.15 AM.jpg
 
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