US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
I think that is the thing that is getting me. I know how I, and every other Dem felt on election night last time. I can't imagine what would happen to us if Trump won this time.
Trump winning would be something catastrophic, the likes of which we've never seen. I don't think that people are fully grasping the edge of the cliff that our country is standing on.
The Nevada thing is worrisome, but I'm hoping that the pending mail vote will make it look better. I can't see NV going red, but definitely gotta keep our eye on it. Also, keep in mind that in the last NYT poll of NV this week, it showed 7% of Reps voting for Biden. That, along with Ind. votes leaning Biden, give me some reassurance.
We'll make it. But shit, I am just a pile of nerves right now.
Most of these polls will ask whether people have already voted, and will weigh this accordingly, so that +17 (which seems like an outlier, but still) tries to account for that.
I mean, Wisconsin having the worst COVID outbreak in the country right now probably affects voters' perception of Trump.
Nate Silver to the rescue:
[TWEET]1321447653230653443[/TWEET]
[TWEET]1321448815325491203[/TWEET]
mikal
Blue Crack Addict
I think the 2016 election creates natural anxiety, and combine that with the GOP literally cheating out in the open, and there’s a sense of hopelessness. Thankfully, the polls are so heavily in Biden’s favor that it would be a catastrophic polling error if he actually lost. And if he does actually win, and Trump still tries to steal it, that may be the tipping point of America saying “enough is enough”.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Good thread by Nate Silver on NV numbers.
I'm not sure that some of these early-voting comparisons to 2016 make a ton of sense given that much of Biden's edge is thought to come from independents breaking his way, and early voting statistics won't capture that.
For example, Clinton lost independents by 13 points in Nevada in 2016, per the exit poll there. This year, he leads them by 3 points, in an average of the last 6 polls of the state. That amounts to a net 6 point swing to Biden.
In many state/national polls, Biden also gets a slightly higher share of Republicans than Trump does of Democrats. In Nevada polls, for instance, Trump gets 6% of Democrats but Biden gets 9% of Republicans. That's amounts to about a 2 point swing to Biden vs. 2016.
In many state/national polls, Biden also gets a slightly higher share of Republicans than Trump does of Democrats. In Nevada polls, for instance, Trump gets 6% of Democrats but Biden gets 9% of Republicans. That's amounts to about a 2 point swing to Biden vs. 2016.
So if you had the same partisan turnout split as in 2016 in Nevada but with this year's partisan breakdown of the vote, Biden would win by ~8 points not ~2 like Clinton. Probably though the split will be a bit worse for Democrats which is why polls have him up ~6 instead.
I'm not sure that some of these early-voting comparisons to 2016 make a ton of sense given that much of Biden's edge is thought to come from independents breaking his way, and early voting statistics won't capture that.
For example, Clinton lost independents by 13 points in Nevada in 2016, per the exit poll there. This year, he leads them by 3 points, in an average of the last 6 polls of the state. That amounts to a net 6 point swing to Biden.
In many state/national polls, Biden also gets a slightly higher share of Republicans than Trump does of Democrats. In Nevada polls, for instance, Trump gets 6% of Democrats but Biden gets 9% of Republicans. That's amounts to about a 2 point swing to Biden vs. 2016.
In many state/national polls, Biden also gets a slightly higher share of Republicans than Trump does of Democrats. In Nevada polls, for instance, Trump gets 6% of Democrats but Biden gets 9% of Republicans. That's amounts to about a 2 point swing to Biden vs. 2016.
So if you had the same partisan turnout split as in 2016 in Nevada but with this year's partisan breakdown of the vote, Biden would win by ~8 points not ~2 like Clinton. Probably though the split will be a bit worse for Democrats which is why polls have him up ~6 instead.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
More reassurance from Dave Wasserman
PA
So far, the pattern is consistent in scores of district-level polls that Trump is running well behind his '16 margins in Bucks, Harrisburg/York, Allegheny/Beaver, NEPA and the Lehigh Valley.
Where does he make up for that in the rest of PA? Answer: he probably doesn't.
TX
Travis Co., TX (Austin) just hit 470,535 votes cast, surpassing its 2016 total of 468,720 a full week before Election Day.
PA
So far, the pattern is consistent in scores of district-level polls that Trump is running well behind his '16 margins in Bucks, Harrisburg/York, Allegheny/Beaver, NEPA and the Lehigh Valley.
Where does he make up for that in the rest of PA? Answer: he probably doesn't.
TX
Travis Co., TX (Austin) just hit 470,535 votes cast, surpassing its 2016 total of 468,720 a full week before Election Day.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1321449476217856000
Arizona is a massive complication in Trump's re-election bid. If Biden carries the state (and he is ahead and there is no real history of the polls in AZ underestimating GOP), it likely means Trump needs to win 2 of MI, PA, & WI. Not just 1.
Arizona is a massive complication in Trump's re-election bid. If Biden carries the state (and he is ahead and there is no real history of the polls in AZ underestimating GOP), it likely means Trump needs to win 2 of MI, PA, & WI. Not just 1.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
This is a great list. I think I would agree on all counts, except for a couple.
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Arizona
North Carolina
Florida
Iowa
Georgia
Texas
Ohio
I think Iowa and GA are about tied in my book. IA is a sleeper for sure. No one is paying attention to Biden's upswing there, since it doesn't have many EV's. But I think my bolded ones are ones I'm pretty confident about them flipping, The last two, very uncertain.
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Anyone know where to find early voting numbers for PA? US Election project only has PA mail-in ballots returned, nothing from in person early voting.
Because a large portion of the population only wants to see the other side suffer, own the libs
They’ll gladly give up everything for a win
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Hope this helps your nerves a bit... New update from Jon Ralston
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
I know that we are all on edge, but all signs indicate that the Trump campaign knows that AZ is out of reach. Even Karl Rove, who feels good about Florida, sees Arizona as a loss for Trump. There is almost no chance of Trump losing Arizona and winning Nevada.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
The John McCain stuff probably destroyed Arizona for him. Plus an appointed senator going hardline for Trump was a dumb fucking idea, when their beloved senator was at war with Trump. I don’t see Arizona as blue, but that area of the country (NV, Utah, etc.) has repeatedly shown its red folks are not here for Trumpism in the way that the south and Midwest are.
And I feel pretty confident that if Biden wins AZ he will not lose the presidency, so there's that.
I agree, it feels like AZ has been flying under the radar but it's a better Plan B than Florida.
I think the distinctive Dem advantage in AZ is that it has a tiny rural population compared to the Midwest, so they are left with the suburban Republicans that the GOP is hemorrhaging.
LemonMelon
More 5G Than Man
And if there's no chance of Trump winning Nevada, there's no Hillary-won state for him to realistically steal. Which makes his electoral path extremely narrow.
538's "winding path to victory" graphic illustrates this pretty well. With PA as the tipping point, losing AZ is not an option. I often forget how populous that state is; it's a more substantive get than WI.
namkcuR
ONE love, blood, life
As realistic as Georgia is looking, they have a Republican governor and a Republican secretary of state, and I fear they will do anything they have to do to steal it from Biden if Biden is the apparent winner there. Their governor already cheated to beat Stacy Abrahams in the governor's race two years ago.
phanan
Blue Crack Addict
Biden +8 MI, per NYT.
Very true and valid points. But on the flip side, you will also have a very energized base + high turnout of black voters who remember what happened in 2018.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
mikal
Blue Crack Addict
That’s assuming that all undecided will all vote for Trump. There’s no Comey letter this time around.
mikal
Blue Crack Addict
OP
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Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
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